Wei Wei, chief strategist of Ping An Securities: "Common prosperity" will reshape the industrial structure, and equity investment will become more and more important

Reporter 丨Liu Chenguang

"Looking ahead, in China's 5 to 10 years of development, residents must first pay attention to the value of stocks and equity investments in asset allocation, and in this regard, its importance has become stronger and stronger." On November 12, Wei Wei, assistant director of Ping An Securities Research Institute and chief strategist, said at the Ping An Lecture Hall.

Judging from the current situation of residents' asset allocation, until now, the asset allocation of Chinese residents is still dominated by real estate and deposits. Wei Wei pointed out that in terms of the total assets of residents, housing assets still account for 55%, accounting for half of the residents' asset allocation, and the assets of the deposit class are also relatively abundant, more than 26%.

The proportion of assets belonging to the second largest category, such as stocks, funds, and bonds, with strong investment attributes, is still 4%, 4.6% and 0.6% by 2019. Wei Wei pointed out that compared with Japan and the United States, the proportion of investment financial assets in China has always been at a relatively low level, and there is a large room for development.

However, in Wei Wei's view, the structure of China's residents' asset allocation will continue to change. On the one hand, it is reflected in the increasing demand for Chinese consumption, and on the other hand, it is also reflected in the obvious changes in the demand for asset allocation and financial services.

"What kind of economic structure is more suitable for direct financing and equity financing, it corresponds to the industrial structure led by innovation and technology, and corresponds to the economic structure that requires more equity financing and stock financing." Wei Wei said frankly that China's economy has gradually begun to enter the background of innovation-driven and technology-driven economic development after 2016. Therefore, now in the proportion of social financing in the stock, basically China is still based on indirect financing, and the structure of debt financing is the mainstay, which is actually gradually changing.

Wei Wei summarized the reform of China's capital market from 2019 to 2021 into three main lines.

The first is around the reform of the registration system, which means that the capital market opens the door to some innovative enterprises to go public for financing.

The second is a series of policy adjustments on mergers and acquisitions, restructuring and refinancing, which enable the capital market to have the ability to support the better development of listed enterprises. For example, since the listing of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, it has brought very good development opportunities for China's semiconductor industry, biomedicine and other industries that need large-scale research and development and innovation investment.

The third is the opening up of the market, with the improvement of the market opening process, China's capital market is gradually increasing in scale, in addition, the degree of market openness and the degree of global market docking are also gradually improving, and foreign-funded financial institutions are gradually entering China's financial market.

Wei Wei believes that in the long run, the general direction of common prosperity proposed by the central government in 2021 will reshape the pattern of China's medium- and long-term industrial development to some extent. One is high-quality development, and the other is to promote equity.

In Wei Wei's view, the pursuit of high-quality development, which also contains three core development areas, the first is along the scientific and technological innovation, including high-tech industries, digital economy, etc., which belong to the scope of scientific and technological innovation; the second general direction is the green low-carbon, carbon-neutral industry and green industry that has been clearly proposed since last year, which includes the new energy industry, the new energy automobile industry, and a series of environmental protection, green, low-carbon industries, and the future is a more green development direction The third is to further upgrade consumption and expand the consumption capacity and willingness of Chinese residents, which also includes many consumption sectors.

"2021 is a year of policy change, and industrial development has also had a clearer trend and direction in the process of this change."

Wei Wei believes that market reform can bring a boost to the whole. On the one hand, a large number of leading listed companies will emerge in the stock market; on the other hand, in the stock market, the development potential of specialized new enterprises is huge.

"In the future, China's economy will focus on regional economies and industrial clusters to build the development of some very key industries, mainly around integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, new energy vehicles, etc.", Wei Wei frankly said, in these areas, regional development, industrial clusters and industrial chains have achieved a good development trend, and such a cluster effect will also be presented in listed enterprises and capital markets. Taking the Greater Bay Area as an example, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the gradual accumulation of industrial clusters has also become a very important development trend.

In terms of bonds, from the perspective of the global and Chinese general trend, with the gradual stabilization of economic growth, long-term interest rates are still in the downward space, "the size of the bond market should be said to be steadily expanding, the market structure is gradually optimized, it can also be seen that the scale of the overall bond market is constantly reaching new highs, it actually brings value to investment is that residents have a greater asset allocation of the market and space to choose from." Wei Wei said.

For the real estate market, Wei Wei pointed out that the overall real estate demand is gradually weakening. "The inflection point of Chinese mouth appeared in 2010, and after 10 years, the trend of aging is still constantly reflected. Under the trend of aging, there will be some decline in the future demand for housing, and the other is the policy, the policy of not speculating in housing was proposed in 2016, and it has been 5 years now, and the overall policy is gradually normalizing. "Therefore, stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations are considered to be the goals of the overall real estate policy." Wei Wei said frankly that the long-term mechanism may be a process of healthier and orderly development for China's real estate industry in the future.

In Wei Wei's view, China's real estate market is actually very young, only more than 20 years of real market history, "China's real estate market is basically a three-year cycle, and from 2016 the central government clearly proposed that housing is not speculated, China's real estate cycle has been gradually lengthened and flattened, from the past 3 years a cycle of the model has been gradually stretched and flattened, the overall market volatility has also clearly appeared a downward trend." ”