This article is from the WeChat public account: Immediately Win Intelligence Station (ID: gh_62c3dc96ee87), Author: Cyy, original title: "Reading "Quick-frozen Food": Under the background of strong festivals, where to find weekday growth? The title image is from: Visual China
The frozen food market, which was popular during the epidemic, seems to be showing a weak trend after consumers' lives return to normal. On the one hand, during the Spring Festival in 2024, the sales volume of quick-frozen dumplings, which occupies the largest category in the quick-frozen food industry all year round, fell by nearly 20% during the peak sales season of the Spring Festival. On the other hand, the financial reports of leading companies show that the recent decline in net profit growth also faintly reflects that the frozen food industry is currently facing a tough battle.
What is the current state of frozen food?
In the data of CT of the company, quick-frozen food refers to the products that are packaged and marked on the package to be frozen or stored below -18 °C, and must be thawed and heated before eating, with rice and noodles as the main raw materials. According to this standard, under the second-level category "quick-frozen food", it is divided into quick-frozen dumplings, quick-frozen wontons/wontons, quick-frozen buns, quick-frozen glutinous rice balls, finger cakes, quick-frozen dim sum, quick-frozen steamed buns, quick-frozen flower rolls, quick-frozen noodles, pizza, quick-frozen fritters, zongzi and other quick-frozen foods.
The CT data of the brand used in this interpretation is the sample store data that has been continuously online in the past 24 months, covering the time period of May 2022 ~ April 2024, covering 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions across the country, and the data sample covers cities at the county level and above (excluding villages, towns, and townships), and the business formats cover five major offline formats, including hypermarkets, large supermarkets, small supermarkets, convenience stores, and grocery stores. It should be noted that the specification segment indicators used in the index are in "grams", and the price segment and average price are in "yuan/kg".
After the insight into the frozen food market and the integration and analysis of various data, we found that there are three obvious trends in the current development of the frozen food market:
- The quick-frozen food category as a whole is facing growth pressure;
- In the category of quick-frozen food, there is still a demand for staple food products;
- In the category of quick-frozen food, products containing concepts such as "accompaniment" and "festival" have grown prominently.
1. Trend 1: The quick-frozen food category as a whole is facing growth pressure
From the perspective of the industry market, the current growth of the quick-frozen food market is relatively weak, from the explosive growth during the epidemic to the lack of growth potential today, and the category is facing greater growth pressure.
In the combing of the overall sales and sales volume trends of the quick-frozen food category, we found that except for a significant positive growth in June 2023, the growth rate of sales and sales volume of quick-frozen food continued to be negative, showing an overall downward trend. Combined with the changes in the consumption environment, the sluggish growth of quick-frozen food after the epidemic may be related to the growth of consumers' consumption outside the home and the corresponding decline in demand for quick-frozen food.
Under such a trend, the quick-frozen food industry can only exchange prices for markets. Judging from the trend of the average price growth rate, the average price growth rate has always been negative since July 2023, that is, the average price of the category has always been in a downward channel.
From the perspective of business formats, it can also be found that its decline trend is more obvious. However, it is worth noting that despite the same negative growth, the performance of quick-frozen food in large formats (hypermarkets, supermarkets) is relatively good, and whether it is the Spring Festival month (2401+2402) or the daily period after the Spring Festival (2403, 2404), the situation of small formats (small supermarkets, convenience stores, grocery stores) is worse than that of large formats, and the sales growth rate of quick-frozen food in grocery stores in April 2024 has even reached -32%.
In terms of specifications, the comparison of various data in the first four months (YTD2304 and YTD2404) of 2023 and 2024 shows that only quick-frozen foods with 500~1000g (inclusive) packaging specifications have achieved contrarian growth in sales, and the growth rate of sales of other specifications is more eye-catching in the growth rate of about -10%. However, affected by the decline in average prices, the sales of 500~1000g (inclusive) packaging products are still declining, and it is difficult to hide the decline. In addition, the volume and value of the remaining packaging specifications can be said to have declined, with an overall sales growth rate of -6.8% and a sales growth rate of -9.5%.
In the two years of 2205~2304, there are two peaks in the annual sales of quick-frozen food in the five major offline formats, the first peak is November ~ February of the following year, which is the annual New Year's Day, Spring Festival and Lantern Festival, and the second small peak is in May and June every year, during the Dragon Boat Festival.
Even if the two major festival categories of glutinous rice balls and zongzi are excluded, this phenomenon is also very significant, and only the data during the Dragon Boat Festival have decreased significantly. In different years, the sales data of quick-frozen food also performed differently. During the period of 2022~2023, the peak sales of quick-frozen food will be concentrated in November 2022~February 2023, and the overall market performance of quick-frozen food during this period will be relatively bright; However, during the period of 2023~2024, the peak sales period has narrowed to January 2024 ~ March 2024, and the performance of the rest of the months is flat. The concentration of the sales season also means that it poses a greater challenge to manufacturers, both in terms of distribution efficiency and centralized marketing capabilities.
In addition, in the year-on-year sales of the Spring Festival months in 2024 and 2023, the growth rate of 62.8% of quick-frozen glutinous rice balls is unbeatable in the category, and the growth rate of other sub-categories in the quick-frozen food category is -14.1%, showing a significant decline overall.
2. Trend 2: Staple food products still have a demand for stockpiling
Although the home hoarding scene under the epidemic has almost disappeared with the opening of society, according to the data in the CT of the instant win brand, consumers still have a certain hoarding demand for some staple food products under the frozen food, which may be one of the growth opportunities of the quick-frozen food market.
In the quick-frozen food market, the sales of large-sized products stand out in the bleakness. Among them, staple food products such as dumplings, buns, finger cakes, fritters and other staple food products are 500~1000g (inclusive) specifications of products in their categories, and the sales share of products in their categories is increasing significantly, especially the sales growth rate of quick-frozen dumplings under this specification reached 12.2%, far higher than the rest of the products. At the same time, it can be seen that the sales share of large-sized staple food products in the quick-frozen food category has increased, which shows that staple food products still have some room for development. The food accompaniment products represented by quick-frozen dim sum are 0~300g (inclusive) small-sized products, and the sales share has increased.
According to the division of the sub-categories mentioned above, it can be found that the market share of quick-frozen glutinous rice balls during the Spring Festival (2301+2302, 2401+2402) has increased significantly, an increase of nearly 3% compared with the Spring Festival period in 2023, which reflects the further enhancement of the festive attributes of the glutinous rice ball category. In addition, in the comparison of sales growth rates during the Spring Festival, the 6.1% growth rate of quick-frozen dim sum category is also very eye-catching in the overall growth rate of -6.6% of quick-frozen food.
In the proportion of sales after the Spring Festival (2303+2304, 2403+2404), tangyuan lost the blessing of festive attributes, and quick-frozen dumplings returned to the position of the first subcategory. Among the changes in market share of other categories after the Spring Festival, the decline in the market share of large categories such as dumplings, wontons, and steamed buns, as well as the increase in the market share of small sub-categories, are worthy of attention. Overall, whether it is during the Spring Festival or within two months after the Spring Festival, the market performance of quick-frozen dim sum is remarkable.
3. Trend 3: The growth of food and festival products is prominent
In addition to the above two major trends, the development of the quick-frozen food market also needs to grasp the opportunities behind the bright growth curve of food and festival products, so as to drive its own transformation and upgrading.
As a typical festival product, the market performance of quick-frozen glutinous rice balls during the Spring Festival often belongs to the first echelon of the quick-frozen food category. In the quick-frozen glutinous rice ball market, the price range of 0~20 yuan/kg is the basis for supporting the glutinous rice ball market, which is not only rich in product matrix, but also often easier to be chosen by consumers because of its high cost performance. However, during the Spring Festival in 2024, the market share of the 20~40 yuan/kg price segment will increase by about 4.5 percentage points compared with 2023, a significant increase.
On the whole, whether it is during the Spring Festival or during the daily period, the growth of spring rolls and glutinous rice under the category of quick-frozen dim sum is relatively prominent. As a representative of food products, the market of quick-frozen dim sum is also greatly affected by festival factors. During the Spring Festival, the market share of spring rolls with festive attributes increased to the second place, with a year-on-year increase of 1.62%, and among the spring roll products, TOP1 and TOP2 products are all Sanquan brands. In the daily period, glutinous products have reached the top three with a market share increase of 3.05%, which is favored by consumers.
IV. Conclusions
Although the current frozen food category market is facing considerable downward pressure due to the impact of the consumption environment and the impact of ready/fresh food products, there are still subdivided concepts and needs that may become the growth point of the category under the pressure. In the insight into the current frozen food market, whether it is the development space of the staple food product market due to hoarding demand, or the slight growth of the food and festival product market driven by innovative products, it means that local opportunities can also become the driving force for sailing against the current.
The so-called not broken or established, the current quick-frozen food enterprises may need a transformation and upgrading based on the concept and demand of segmentation, so as to bring new possibilities to the enterprise itself and even the overall frozen food market.
This article is from the WeChat public account: Immediately win the intelligence station (ID: gh_62c3dc96ee87), author: Cyy
This content is the author's independent view and does not represent the position of Tiger Sniff. May not be reproduced without permission, please contact [email protected] for authorization
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