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The "Monthly Reference of Food and Catering Chain Enterprise Procurement Market" jointly produced by Wangju Capital, Red Meal Industry Research Institute, Liangzhilong, Manor, Xianghui Caiyun, Juyuan Centralized Procurement and Octopus Small Data has been released.
What are the information about food ingredients in this issue? What are the fluctuations in the price of ingredients? Let's take a look.
Consumer price index (CPI) data for April 2024 showed that consumer prices rose by 0.3% year-on-year. Food prices showed a downward trend, falling by 2.7% year-on-year. Compared with the previous months, consumer demand continued to recover, and the national CPI turned from a decline to an increase month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase expanded.
From the perspective of the overall environment, the decline in food prices has had a certain impact on the procurement of ingredients. For example, the year-on-year decline in the price of beef and lamb may provide some room for cost savings for food buyers. Judging from the comprehensive data, there are many positive factors in the market, and the overall market is relatively stable.
For more information on the procurement of food ingredients, please refer to the "Monthly Reference of Food and Catering Chain Enterprise Procurement Market (2024.05) (hereinafter referred to as the Procurement Market") jointly released by Wangju Capital, Red Meal Industry Research Institute, Liangzhilong, Damanor, Xianghui Caiyun, Juyuan Centralized Purchasing, and Octopus Small Data.
Beef prices fell slightly steadily
Spot market: At present, the market performance is flat, and there is no major order peak, and the trading mode is based on on-demand procurement. At present, the transaction price is relatively stable, and some single products have fallen slightly, with a decline of 0.5-1.5 yuan/kg. Affected by the large number of beef imports in March, the positive factors in May were relatively reduced, and the goods shipped in early March are expected to arrive in Hong Kong in late April, and it is estimated that there is room for beef imports to decline. It is estimated that the performance of the spot market in May will be relatively average, and there is still room for each single product to fall.
Futures market: The futures market performed generally in April, with futures prices stabilizing and not having much room for bargaining, resulting in weak enthusiasm for domestic trade orders, and a decline in the offer price of Brazil, a mainstream importing country, with more offers and a slightly higher trading volume; In Argentina and Uruguay, both offer volume and offer price were stable, but the trading volume was average; The port arrival period of futures products is concentrated in May and June.
Broilers and ducks fluctuated slightly
In April, the price range of white-feathered broilers fluctuated slightly, and the overall change was limited. In April, the average price of domestic white feather broiler sheds was 3.84 yuan / catty, an increase of 2.13% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 25.15%. The national average price of 817 little white chicken was 4.11 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 1.44%, and a decrease of 0.93 yuan/jin, a year-on-year decrease of 18.45%. The average price of green-legged hemp chicken was 5.23 yuan/jin, down 0.60 yuan/kg from the average price of the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 10.24%.
In April, the national average price was 3.83 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.11 yuan/jin from the average price of the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.45%. The average price of live poultry was 5.15 yuan/catty, basically unchanged from the previous month, a year-on-year decrease of 5.86%. The current recovery cost of contract duck is in the range of 3.66-3.80 yuan/catty. The country's hairy ducks fluctuated, the northern market continued to decline slightly, and the supply of duck sources was basically flat. The quotations of the main live poultry producing areas in the south fell rapidly in the first half of the year, most of them fell below the 5 yuan line, and at the end of the month, stimulated by the May Day holiday, the quotations slowly rose. In terms of the cost of breeding, the contract duck has achieved better breeding performance this month, with a contract subsidy of 0.30-0.60 yuan/piece, a low feed ratio, and a net profit increase for farmers.
The hog market trend is stable
In April, the domestic pig market trend was relatively stable, breeding groups and retail investors increased the speed of slaughter this month, the overall pattern is still a situation of oversupply, and the supply is loose in the environment, supporting the weakening of pig prices.
According to the supply side data, the April slaughter plan increased by 4.68% month-on-month, the breeding group and retail slaughter volume is still large, the pace of pig supply is accelerated, resulting in weak pig prices in late April, the current market supply and demand game continues, multiple factors set off the pig price upward, but the demand is still low, the supply release or the pig price has been suppressed, but the planned increase or limited, holiday consumption is temporarily supported, the market is expected to fluctuate, the center of gravity of pig prices or still strong.
According to the demand-side data, the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays are good, and the fresh products are good during the May Day period, and the Dragon Boat Festival will have short-term support for the early replenishment.
From the trend point of view, the weather is hot in May, the breeding end and retail slaughter plans to accelerate, the short-term market or is still in an oversupply situation, pig prices or weak operation, coupled with the weak performance of the consumer side, there is no long-term positive support market higher, the weekly market is expected to rise-fall-fall-rise.
The above is an analysis and interpretation of the key content of the "Monthly Reference of Food and Catering Chain Enterprise Procurement Market (2024.05)". For more detailed information, you can download the free e-file for review.