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What can scientists and technologists do in disaster prevention and mitigation?

author:Jiangsu Association for Science and Technology

Their work is not only about the development of science and technology, but also about the safety and well-being of each of us. Some of them use theoretical and technical innovations to improve the accuracy of early warning of disasters and curb more losses in the bud, some provide a basis for scientists to test disaster prevention and mitigation methods and models through high-precision monitoring technology and equipment, and some improve public awareness of disasters and prevention through field investigations and records and scientific communication work at disaster sites.

On May 12 of this year,

It is the 16th National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Day.

On this special day,

Let's dive in,

In order to prevent and mitigate disasters and ultimately improve the well-being of human beings,

What are the tech workers doing?

Fan Xuanmei

Running after the strong earthquake and opening the blind box at the disaster site

Fan Xuanmei, researcher at Chengdu University of Technology and deputy director of the State Key Laboratory of Geological Hazard Prevention and Geoenvironmental Protection, won the 19th China Young Women Scientist Award, and has long been committed to the research of geological disasters of strong earthquakes.

In 2008, the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake changed the fate of many people, including Fan Xuanmei, who was studying for a doctorate at Chengdu University of Technology. She was on the 6th floor of a student dormitory at the time of the earthquake. After running downstairs and staying in a tent for a day, Fan Xuanmei accompanied her mentor to Beichuan, which was severely affected by the disaster, and saw the tragic situation after the earthquake and the threat of secondary disasters caused by the earthquake.

Under the natural disaster, above the ruins, Fan Xuanmei felt for the first time that human beings were so small and fragile. But her profession also made her clear that in the face of natural disasters, human beings are not completely powerless, on the contrary, they are not doing enough.

What can scientists and technologists do in disaster prevention and mitigation?

▲Fan Xuanmei conducted field surveys in the Wenchuan earthquake area

She knew she had to do something.

At that time, her research direction was ordinary landslides, and she had been doing it for four or five years. However, she decided to abandon her previous research results and focus on the prediction of geological disasters caused by earthquakes. What she thought was: "Since I am doing research on geological disasters, I should choose the disasters that pose the most serious threat to people's lives and property, and choose the scientific problems that are the most difficult to overcome." ”

In order to predict the aftermath of an earthquake, it is necessary to understand the mechanism of the disaster chain. For this reason, Fan Xuanmei had to go to the disaster site again and again to investigate: "Of the two slopes that are very close, one has landslided, and the other is safe and sound. What is the reason? If you don't go to the site, there's no way to do in-depth research. ”

In the four years of her Ph.D., Fan Xuanmei traveled to more than 800 disaster sites in the Wenchuan earthquake area. At the beginning of the investigation, the earthquake area was still active, and the investigation was often dangerous, with muddy, narrow roads and frequent landslides. She often said: "People are nervous and scared, but we have professional judgment." ”

Today, in the State Key Laboratory of Geological Disaster Prevention and Geoenvironmental Protection where Fan Xuanmei works, there is a huge shaking table of 4 meters ✖️and 6 meters. Here, scientists can simulate the entire process of a slope several meters high from the beginning of deformation to the final complete destruction and decline under different seismic waves.

The simulated data comes from the real post-earthquake geological hazard data collected by Fan Xuanmei's team. In order to expand the data, Fan Xuanmei also collected nearly 400,000 geological hazard data from more than 50 earthquakes around the world, and established the most complete earthquake-induced geological hazard database in the world.

With the development of artificial intelligence and satellite remote sensing technology, Fan Xuanmei led the team to establish a prediction model, and after many "actual battles", the accuracy rate is about 20% higher than the best model of the United States Geological Survey. In the 2023 Luding earthquake, the calculation of this prediction model has reached a minute-level response, combined with the data transmitted by drones and satellites, to accurately and quickly predict the on-site situation, providing important support for the golden 72 hours of post-earthquake rescue.

For more than ten years, Fan Xuanmei has always insisted on taking root in the front line of earthquake disasters, and as long as there is a strong earthquake, Fan Xuanmei and her team can always be seen at the scene.

But her footsteps continue to climb. In recent years, Fan Xuanmei's work has extended to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The Tibetan Plateau is at the forefront of earth science research and a natural studio coveted by geologists around the world. But at the same time, strong tectonic movements, earthquakes and global climate change have made the Tibetan Plateau increasingly dangerous, making it the most vulnerable area for mega-geological disasters.

Now, Fan Xuanmei also has a new dream: to protect the plateau, protect the plateau people, and also protect the major national strategic projects on the plateau - Sichuan-Tibet Railway, Yaxia Hydropower Station, etc. In order to achieve this goal, Fan Xuanmei set up a research team on the cryospheric disaster chain of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and has been practicing and exploring in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau for many years.

The investigation of the Tibetan Plateau is far more dangerous than in the earthquake zone. Extremely high, extremely cold, and the mountains are threatened by wildlife. But Fan Xuanmei feels that the beauty of science and nature is one of the highest experiences that the human soul can have. They camped at the foot of Nanga Bhava, sometimes measuring the glaciers, and when they looked up, they saw the golden mountains of sunshine.

Fan Xuanmei often said that it is necessary to do research that stands up to the sky. "'Dingtian' means that our research must be at the forefront and internationally recognized; 'Ground' means that our research must be able to serve the country's disaster prevention and mitigation, serve the construction of some major national projects, and solve practical problems. Scientific research cannot always hang in the sky and fall to the ground. ”

Shen Xuhui

Build a satellite and fly into the sky to "see" the earthquake

Shen Xuhui is a researcher at the National Space Science Center of China, chief scientist and deputy chief designer of the Zhangheng-1 satellite program, and a member of the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Working Group of the GEO China Committee.

Earthquakes happen every day. Some can be felt, some don't. But in the eyes of scientists, there are other ways to "perceive" earthquakes.

In 2018, the electromagnetic monitoring test satellite "Zhangheng-1" was launched. This satellite, named after Zhang Heng, the inventor of the wind and geodynamic instrument, is the first satellite of China's seismic stereoscopic observation system and the first satellite of China's geophysical field exploration satellite program.

What can scientists and technologists do in disaster prevention and mitigation?

▲Shen Xuhui is introducing the related work of "Zhang Heng No. 1".

In order to send it into the sky, Shen Xuhui, chief scientist and deputy chief engineer of the "Zhangheng-1" satellite, and his colleagues spent 15 years.

As the first satellite of China's seismic stereo observation system, as early as the beginning of 2003, the "Zhangheng-1" satellite began to plan, after repeated pre-research and demonstration, but has not been formally approved. "At that time, it was the first time that China had made such a satellite. Not only have we never eaten pork, but we haven't even seen a pig run. It was a very difficult time to learn a lot from the outside world and to explain the importance and necessity of 'Zhenxing' internally. Shen Xuhui recalled.

Due to the large number of fields involved in earthquakes, many people cannot understand that "earthquakes are underground, why go to the sky?" For this reason, Shen Xuhui can only explain again and again what are the manifestations of earthquake precursors, and what is the correlation between space electromagnetic disturbance and earthquake occurrence.

In addition to constantly explaining and persuading, Shen Xuhui himself also needs to constantly supplement his knowledge. "I first need to understand geophysics, but also space physics, aerospace engineering and plasma physics. Coupled with a series of work such as team management and scheduling, I sometimes joke that I have become an 'old, weak, sick and disabled' in the past ten years. ”

In fact, it is. Shen Xuhui needed one person to carry the three positions of science, technology, and management, and was sent to the hospital due to overwork. Less than a week after the operation, he chaired another review meeting in a wheelchair.

Fortunately, the good results came. Shen Xuhui always remembered that it was on July 30, 2013, when he was still on sick leave, he received a phone call from the Bureau of Science and Industry, and the other end of the phone said that the State Council had approved China's electromagnetic monitoring test satellite project. Recalling this moment, Shen Xuhui couldn't hide his excitement: "Ten years, a lot of money has been spent on the country, and a large number of people have contributed to it, and finally reached a new level." I felt like I was strong, but I couldn't control my crying. ”

After the project was established, Shen Xuhui led the team to enter the intense research and development non-stop, which was another five years.

Although there are many scientific, technical and technological issues involved in the process of "star-making", and it has also gone through the tortuous process of "international cooperation-domestic development-re-domestic development-re-international cooperation", Shen Xuhui has always maintained his original intention and firm confidence in scientific research. "I think a breakthrough in earthquake prediction is possible, but there is no breakthrough yet. This requires the 'blessing' of new technologies and methods. ”

On February 2, 2018, "Zhangheng-1" was successfully launched. On February 17, 2018, three days after the Zhangheng-1 satellite was launched in orbit, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake was recorded in Mexico. "This proves that we are taking the right technical route." Shen Xuhui felt relieved, "I feel that this satellite will not be too bad, and it is worthy of the country's continuous support and investment in our research work." ”

The surprises brought by the "Zhangheng-1" satellite are far more than that. Based on the data of the Zhangheng-1 satellite, China has successfully established the first global reference geomagnetic field model, CGGM 2020.0, which is the only global reference geomagnetic field model led by Chinese scientists and produced entirely using Chinese data in more than a century.

Earthquakes are a topic of concern to the masses, and earthquake prediction has always been a problem in the world. It is almost impossible to predict an earthquake with simple information. Compared with some illusory predictions, Shen Xuhui believes that it is more important to do a good job in earthquake monitoring and early warning to reduce casualties and economic and property losses caused by earthquakes.

Of course, earthquake prediction is also the direction that he will lead the team to continue to explore and work towards, "Earthquake prediction is a natural science problem. There must be a solution to the problems of natural science, otherwise it is agnosticism. Just where is the solution? How to solve it? This is something that we, as scientists, need to pursue. ”

Chasing the Wind Group

As long as there is a typhoon, we are on the spot

The Wind Chasing Team, the China Meteorological Channel's Special Reporting Group on Disaster Weather, collects data wherever there is disaster weather and provides a data basis for follow-up scientific research.

When extreme weather such as typhoons and sandstorms occur, people often hide indoors and wait for the storm to end. But there is such a group of people, but they have to go against the wind - wherever there is a typhoon, they will go. They are the China Meteorological Channel's special reporting team on disaster weather, and some people call them "wind chasing team".

What can scientists and technologists do in disaster prevention and mitigation?

▲ Bian Yun's work scene when chasing Typhoon "Fit".

Why are they chasing the wind? Perhaps, we can find some answers from the stories of the members of the Wind Chasing Group.

Liu Qingyang is one of the first wind chasers, and he is also the "typhoon eye myth" of the wind chasing team. She recalls the first time she entered the eye of the typhoon in 2005 when she was chasing Typhoon "Telly", when the scene of heavy wind and rain came to an abrupt end, and instantly switched to clear white clouds, and her pores could feel every inch of strong sunlight.

She and her colleagues quickly realized that they were in the eye of a typhoon and immediately jumped into the shoot. However, this calm was temporary, and half an hour later, a storm that was even more terrible than before struck again. In the following years, Liu Qingyang experienced several typhoon eyes, and also had different feelings: "The first time I was excited, the second time I was afraid, and the third time I turned my head and ran." ”

Why chase the eye of the storm? From a scientific point of view, the eye of the typhoon is not only the key to judging the landing site, but also the key to predicting the scope of wind and rain and typhoon prevention services. From the perspective of news, valuable news footage can be captured, allowing the audience to intuitively feel the horror and harm of the typhoon.

"I usually stand on the windward side so I can see what's going to be blowing on the other side of the wind." Bian Yun, a senior engineer at the China Meteorological Administration who was a member of the wind chasing team, recalled the experience of reporting on meteorological disasters. When the wind is strong, people can't stand steadily, and trees will blow to the ground. For safety, during the broadcast, Bian Yun would tie himself to a sturdy building and be careful of dangerous debris such as iron pieces and glass blown by the wind. During a wind-chasing operation, he was almost hit by a piece of iron flying in the wind, but fortunately he stood against the wind and dodged in time, and the piece of iron "snapped" deep into the trunk of the tree behind him.

With the actions of the wind chasing team, more and more coastal residents and institutions have a deep understanding of the dangers of typhoons, and have also accumulated rich experience in typhoon prevention, and will consciously take measures such as removing large billboards, transferring goods, and returning fishing boats to port after receiving typhoon warnings. Nowadays, the usual "billboards flying all over the sky on a typhoon day" scene is rare.

Most of the members of the team are young people, and they have to respond quickly, act quickly, and withstand the typhoon. "When the typhoon strengthened to Category 13 or 4, all the people who were outside were lying on the ground." Duan Jinglei, a member of the wind-chasing team who once chased the catastrophic typhoon "Sangmei", described, "When you reach level 17, people will fly. And when the rainstorm comes, the hearing and hearing are completely blurred, and the only feeling left is "the rain hits the body, and it hurts like a pinprick".

What do you get in exchange for doing this?

In addition to enhancing residents' awareness of typhoon preparedness from the perspective of communication, the front-line data transmitted by the wind chasing team has also made a great contribution to scientific research, because behind the wind chasing team are meteorological experts who cannot reach the scene.

Due to age, physical and other reasons, most experts are unable to go to the typhoon site to check the actual situation, so they lack an intuitive sense of how much the typhoon affects and what it looks like. The more typhoon data collected, the more experts can grasp the pattern of the typhoon, and the more accurate predictions can be made, so as to protect more lives and property in the face of severe weather.

In addition to chasing the wind, the team will also chase sandstorms, heavy rains, and lightning, and also report on all disasters such as floods, sustained high temperatures, and droughts.

In the eyes of the members of the Wind Chasing Group, they endure these hardships in order to save more people from the suffering of disasters. Bian Yun once said: "Although it is dangerous, we just want to let the public understand how bad the meteorological disaster will be through this kind of information transmission, and then try to avoid it." There are a lot of safety-related measures that many people don't know about, but it's very important. In the past 20 years, the mainland has done a very good job in this regard, for example, when typhoons, especially strong typhoons, pass through, we will also be affected, but at the very least, the mortality rate is drastically reduced. Through the transmission of this information, I think it is very meaningful to be able to save even one more life in every disaster. (Synthesized from Xinhuanet, People's Daily Online, Economic Daily, China News Network, China Meteorological News, Popular Science China "I am a scientist")

Source: Voice of China Association for Science and Technology

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