Since the recent slight rise in corn, market sentiment has also been ignited.
It's also interesting to think about it, but it was still a drop before, why did it rise for a few days, and the mood reversed?
Although emotions are said to be subjective, sometimes they are not groundless. The bullish increase is mainly due to the fact that the corn market has developed to a key inflection point.
The progress of selling grain is nearing the end, after the transfer of grain rights, the price sentiment and ability of the main body of the trade are obviously higher than that of grassroots farmers, and next, it is about to be the second half of the year, the market is expected to be higher in the second half of the year, so there is a probability of reversal in pig prices, which will drive up the demand for corn.
Of course, this is just a prediction of the market.
However, recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released an analysis of the situation of supply and demand of agricultural products in the new year, which has attracted the attention of the market.
Among them, there are two main "growths" mentioned in the section on corn:
One is that China's total corn output in 2024/25 is forecast to reach 297.01 million tonnes, up 2.8 percent from the previous season.
The increase in corn production is partly based on the expected increase in planted area.
According to the forecast, the area planted with maize in the new season will reach 44,886 thousand hectares, an increase of 667 thousand hectares or 1.5 percent over the previous season.
The reason is that although the price of corn has fallen and the income has declined, the corresponding land transfer and other expenses have also decreased significantly, so there is still enthusiasm for planting.
On the other hand, it is based on the increase in yields.
However, the wheat has just been harvested, the corn has just been planted, and the weather has been unpredictable in the past two years, so it is too early to judge the yield of corn in the new year.
But there is another piece of data that is exciting in the market.
That is, the consumption of corn has also increased, and it is expected that the consumption of corn in the new season will reach 299.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%.
Among them, the demand for deep processing and feed both increased.
The demand for deep processing has been verified from this year's performance, although the current demand for deep processing is expected to peak, but it is expected that the follow-up operating rate will remain high.
On the other hand, on the feed demand side, corn is facing a return to advantage.
Although this forecast is the data of the new year, that is, the change in supply and demand in the annual cycle from October 2024 to September 2025, supply and demand are not sudden, but in the same vein, so it can also be pushed backwards to this year, that is, although the pig production capacity has declined, the space for subsequent re-removal has become smaller, and there is obvious support for rigid demand.
On the other hand, after the price of corn fell, wheat and other substitutions were kicked out, and the advantage of corn returned, so it is expected that the consumption of feed corn this year will still be not low.
In addition, with the subsequent wheat harvest, corn will also enter the traditional green and yellow period, and this period is also the time when the aquaculture industry turns from the off-season to the peak season.
In addition, the market is expected to increase pig prices, so the follow-up corn will show a trend of supply reduction and demand increase, laying the foundation for the rise of corn.
This also seems to have given corn a reassurance, originally after the wheat harvest, Chen Mai sat and waited for the rise, but did not expect the rise of Chen Mai to come, but the corn is brewing a new market.
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