Cattle and sheep market: Recently, netizens in many places have reported that the price of beef and mutton has dropped a lot! According to the messages of some netizens in southwest Lu, in the local rural bazaar, the price of beef fell to about 26~30 yuan/jin, and the price of steak dropped to about 23~25 yuan/jin. The price of lamb chops is about 25~27 yuan/jin, and the price of mutton is about 30~32 yuan/jin......
According to the Beijing Xinfadi market, on May 13, the new wholesale market issued beef tendon meat at 26~27 yuan/jin, and beef leg meat at 22~23 yuan/jin; The price of brisket is 22~23 yuan/jin, and the price of steak is 24~25 yuan/jin; In terms of mutton, the price of lamb leg meat is 29~31 yuan/jin, the price of lamb chops is 21~22 yuan/jin, the price of lamb tendon meat is 31~32 yuan/jin, and the price of lamb scorpion boutique is 20~21 yuan/jin!
Domestic beef and mutton prices have fallen sharply, in particular, the price of beef in some areas has dropped by 10 yuan/jin compared with the normal month price in previous years, and the price of mutton has also dropped by 5~7 yuan/jin! The factors supporting the sharp decline in beef and mutton prices are as follows!
On the one hand, the domestic fattening cattle and sheep production capacity has expanded year by year, and the domestic beef and mutton production capacity has increased significantly, according to the analysis of institutional data, among them, in the first quarter of 24, the beef output was 1.86 million tons, and the mutton output was 1.11 million tons, of which, the beef output showed 12 consecutive years of growth!
On the other hand, the level of imported beef and mutton has increased significantly, according to customs data, in 2023, the import of mutton will be 433,600 tons, and the cost price of imported meat will be about 143,638 yuan/catty; The import level of beef is 2.74 million tons, and the cost of import into the port is 18.2631 yuan/catty. Among them, in the first quarter of 2024, beef imports will be 770,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, and the average cost will be 17.054 yuan / catty; The import of mutton was 10.8456 tons, and the cost dropped to 11.4351 yuan/ton!
By domestic overcapacity, the price of imported beef and mutton has increased significantly, and the cost has dropped sharply, the domestic beef and mutton market is under pressure, in the short term, due to the low cost of imports, the diversification of domestic consumer demand, the beef and mutton market will still maintain a weak trend!
Corn market: May is about to pass the halfway point, the bottom support of the corn market has become stronger, and the price has gradually entered a moderate upward trend!
The logic to support the rise in corn prices is as follows: (1) The price of corn in the international market is strong, among them, the domestic corn 2407 contract rose to about 2453 yuan / ton, affected by this factor, the cost of imported corn has risen, supporting the bullish sentiment of domestic traders!
(2) The pattern of corn purchase and sales is reversed! Due to the acceleration of the pace of grain sales at the grassroots level, the surplus grain has been further reduced, the risk of corn selling pressure has been reduced, the purchase and sales at the grassroots level have gradually stagnated, the channel voice has been improved, and the storage cost and grain storage have increased, traders have been reluctant to sell at high prices, and the level of grain supply has declined!
(3), the demand to follow up stronger, by the gradual decline in the supply of grain sources, demand support has improved, in particular, domestic corn still needs to be imported, corn supply gap still exists, feed and deep processing enterprises have a certain enthusiasm to build a library!
Therefore, supported by sentiment and supply contraction, corn prices have bottomed out and rebounded! However, from a rational point of view, due to the stage of the grassroots still have a small amount of surplus grain, the North China market surplus grain is still about 1 percent, and the new wheat is about to go on the market, Hubei new wheat has a low performance, some traders are worried that wheat feed or will inhibit corn consumption, traders still have a certain amount of vacant phenomenon. In terms of deep processing, recently, the starch goods of enterprises are not good, the operating rate is gradually declining, the consumption of raw grain is average, some enterprises have the phenomenon of shutdown and maintenance, and the mood of replenishing corn is cautious!
According to this analysis, due to various factors in the market, the corn market is showing a stage of bottoming out, but because the market surplus grain still exists, the pressure of enterprises is generally short of grain, the price rise is relatively slow, and the market lacks the opportunity to rise sharply.
Oil price adjustment news: According to official regulations, based on the changes in the international crude oil market, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted every 10 working days, and the price adjustment range reaches more than 50 yuan/ton, and the price is adjusted! The range is less than 50 yuan / ton, no adjustment, the price of oil will be included in the next time into the accumulation or deduction, the oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on May 15!
According to institutional data analysis, in this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil prices showed a downward trend, of which WTI crude oil started at $83.85 per barrel and Brent crude oil at $89.5 per barrel!
During the cycle, due to the Federal Reserve maintaining a high level of interest rates and Hamas accepting a ceasefire agreement mediated by the mediators, international oil prices fell sharply, however, after the May Day holiday, it was difficult to reach negotiations between Israel and Hamas, and the market's concerns about the U.S. economic depression became stronger.
However, at the end of last week, as the inflationary pressure in the United States was difficult to alleviate, some senior officials of the Federal Reserve said that "there is no plan for interest rate cuts", and the market's concerns about the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are difficult to fulfill.
According to the analysis of the institution, at present, the 8th working day after the end of this round of refined oil price adjustment, the rate of change of crude oil is -4.88%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to fall by 235 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price of 92/95 gasoline reduced by 0.18~0.21 yuan!
Judging from the latest feedback, today, international oil prices continued to fall, due to widespread market concerns, the prospect of weak crude oil consumption and the Federal Reserve officials' remarks may curb the expectation of interest rate cuts, international oil prices fluctuated downward, as of 10:37 on May 13, WTI crude oil fell $0.23 to $78.03 / barrel, Brent crude oil filial piety $0.33, fell to $82.45 / barrel......
If international oil prices fall further, in the last 2 working days of this round of pricing cycle, the rate of change of domestic crude oil may be further reduced, and the decline in gasoline and diesel prices is still expected to expand!
Attached: The price of No. 92 gasoline in various provinces and cities on May 14, 2024 (tell each other that the oil price will be lowered soon, and the time will be 24 o'clock on May 15)!