The article is original, unauthorized, please do not reprint, offenders will be investigated!
【Reading guide】5Gradually entering the middle of the month,This Wednesday,The 10th oil price adjustment of the year is coming,Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to usher in a sharp decline in performance,92/95 gasoline 1 liter or down 2 cents 1,Residents' travel and logistics costs may drop significantly! In the pig market, pig prices continue to rise, however, the market sentiment has deteriorated significantly, and pig prices have "changed abruptly", and prices may fall under pressure! So, what's happening in the market? The specific analysis is as follows:
Refined oil market: oil price adjustment, after the price of oil rose and fell during the year, gasoline and diesel prices rose to 805 yuan and 775 yuan / ton respectively, taking Beijing as an example, the price of 92 gasoline during the New Year's Day holiday was 7.54 yuan / liter, and the price of 92 gasoline at the gas station on May 13 was 8.19 yuan, and the increase was 0.65 yuan / liter during the year; In Shanghai, the price of No. 92 gasoline was 7.51 yuan/liter at the beginning of the year, and the price of No. 92 gasoline was 8.15 yuan before the price adjustment on May 13, an increase of 0.64 yuan. In terms of No. 95 gasoline, in Shandong, the price of No. 95 gasoline at the beginning of the year was 8.05 yuan/liter, and the price of gas stations before the price adjustment on May 13 was 8.75 yuan/liter, up 0.7 yuan during the year......
At present, domestic oil prices are still at a high level, and the market's sentiment to decline has become stronger, and it is understood that a new round of oil price adjustment, domestic gasoline and diesel prices may be sharply reduced! According to data analysis, on May 13, the end of the round of pricing cycle 80% of the working days, referring to the changes in international oil prices last Friday, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are estimated to fall by about 230 yuan/ton, equivalent to 92/95 gasoline prices fell by 0.17~0.21 yuan, and the maximum drop in oil prices may reach 2 cents 1!
If the fall in oil prices landed, then this will also be the first time that oil prices fell by more than 100 yuan / ton in the year, since the end of April, domestic refined oil prices or will usher in "2 consecutive falls"!
Since the international oil price is based on the change of international crude oil, the decline in international crude oil has supported the downward trend of domestic oil prices! Recently, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased slightly, the market's concerns about crude oil supply disruptions have eased, and the market has focused on the Federal Reserve.
Due to the previous general belief that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in the second half of the year due to poor U.S. economic data and non-farm data, the Federal Reserve may have an expectation of interest rate cuts in advance, and oil prices will be temporarily strong after the holiday, but as some Federal Reserve officials released news that due to inflationary pressure, interest rate cuts may be difficult to achieve within the year, which has exacerbated the market's concerns about the downturn of the U.S. economy, suppressed the expectation of crude oil consumption, and supported the decline in international oil prices!
However, due to the fact that the geopolitical relations have not eased, the situation in the Middle East and Eastern Europe is still tense, and the Fed's performance in "stagflation", there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, and the crude oil market still has some support.
Pig market: due to the bullish sentiment support, the stage of the second breeding sentiment to become stronger, the breeding end shrinkage to rise, pig prices in the support of many parties, the price appeared slightly higher situation, from the market feedback, on May 13, pig prices rose 0.12 yuan, slaughtering prices rose to 15.12 yuan / kg, the domestic market only in Shaanxi, Gansu and Jiangsu, pig prices fell 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan, pig prices in most parts of the north and south fan bone 0.05 ~ 0.25 yuan / kg, there is a certain phenomenon of making up for the rise in many places!
Support the rise in pig prices, mainly by the market bullish prospects for pig prices in the third quarter, especially, for 7~8 months bullish confidence strengthened, which stimulated the sentiment of the second breeding column, increased the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises homeopathic pig collection, but also made farmers more confident in the price, pig supply appeared in a tight situation!
However, with the rise and fall of pig prices in Shaanxi, Gansu and Jiangsu, East China and Central China markets, pig prices rise stamina is insufficient, from the grassroots feedback, the market sentiment has changed again, bullish confidence is obviously insufficient, bearish sentiment is gradually heating up, pig prices or will be "painting style mutation"!
On the one hand, the breeding end of the high slaughter cash, the group pig enterprises have the performance of increasing the sale of pigs, in the north and south regions, the level of pig source of slaughtering enterprises has increased, constrained by consumption, slaughtering enterprises have fewer orders for white strips, slaughtering enterprises to sell production, pig source to the factory to increase, and the mentality of taking advantage of the situation to reduce prices has become stronger!
On the other hand, after the entry of the second breeding for a short time, limited by the rise in the cost of supplementing the column and the cost of fattening, the bullish confidence of the second breeding for the prospect of pig prices has weakened, and the mentality of cautious entry has become stronger, and the impact on the circulation of pig sources has weakened!
Therefore, under the multi-party game, pig prices are facing a trend of rising and falling, personal predictions, in the next 1~2 days, in the northern region, pig prices or will be the first to fall, large factories to sell pigs or will increase, retail investors follow the trend of slaughter, large pigs have the mood of falling into the bag and An, the market has a certain "rush" phenomenon! However, due to the support of pig prices, the market is relatively optimistic about the prospect of pig prices, and the room for pig prices to fall is limited, and the market will still be weak and stable in the short term!
1 lift 2 gross 1! May 13: After the price adjustment, the price of 92/95 gasoline, the pig price "suddenly changed"! What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the Internet!