This is the 144th issue of "Bay Area Wangqu".
The lack of electricity has become a "hot potato" for Lai Qingde
Taiwan's power shortage, power outages, and rising electricity bills are frequent, and energy policies have been questioned, causing public resentment. In April this year, a total of 35 power outages occurred in Taoyuan City alone, and the frequency of occurrence and the number of affected households are still rising. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) also always lets animals "take the blame", accusing them of being "kamikaze" to kill power equipment...... The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which once clinged to the "anti-nuclear god card," is now showing signs of loosening its stance.
Recently, after Dong Tongxian, deputy director of the Democratic Progressive Party's think tank close to Lai Qingde, shouted the slogan of "extending the second and third nuclear power plants", the "nuclear power enlightened faction" in the green camp, which had been silent for a long time, gradually spoke out, but the "anti-nuclear fundamentalist faction" in the DPP quickly fought back, believing that Taiwan was not prepared for nuclear energy safety risks, could not resist emergencies, and needed to be investigated.
Although there has been some loosening of the DPP on energy issues, dissenting opinions within the party are still being debated. Whether the energy policy can be adjusted has become the focus of attention from the outside world.
Tong Zixian (right), Lai Qingde (middle)
Taiwan's supervision department yesterday (11th) submitted an application for investigation into nuclear energy safety, and in view of the frequent earthquakes, whether the safety work of the first, second and third nuclear power plants is perfect, has applied for automatic investigation. Inspectors point out that the level of safety at the nuclear power plants is adequate. Regardless of whether a nuclear power plant is decommissioned or extended, what is the follow-up safety work? There is a need for in-depth investigation, and we will investigate in depth. According to Taiwan media's exposure of the three personnel in charge of supervision, past remarks have pointed out that the three have a clear "anti-nuclear" stance, and Lai Shih-pao, a representative of the Kuomintang who is a nationalist, believes that the actions of these supervisors are to make trouble for Lai Qingde.
Taiwan's "United News Network" published an article pointing out that the discussion on the issue of extending the commissioning of nuclear power plants is different from the shouts from the "opposition parties" to the business circles in the past, and even the DPP is "bickering." This is particularly eye-catching, and it has even punctured the DPP's long-standing claim that "the energy transition is very successful and Taiwan has no shortage of electricity."
In an interview with Taiwan's "TVBS News" today, Wang Hongwei, a representative of the Kuomintang Democratic People's Congress, said that the three supervisors who proposed the investigation belonged to the "anti-nuclear faction," and the reason why they did so was because some people in the Democratic Progressive Party were "loosening," and Tong Zixian was considered to have come out to make a noise, and the purpose of launching the investigation at this time was to consolidate the "anti-nuclear fundamentalist faction" internally. Because even if Lai Qingde is willing to consider keeping the nuclear power option, the biggest obstacle is how to reach an agreement with the "anti-nuclear faction".
It is worth noting that on the issue of nuclear power, Lai Qingde has always used it as a "political bargaining chip". As early as when Lai Ching-te was in charge of Taiwan's administrative organs, he repeatedly declared that he would solve the "five shortages" of water, electricity, labor, land, and talent. However, in the past seven years, none of the "five shortages" have been solved, and the power shortage crisis has become more severe, which is a problem that Lai Qingde cannot escape. Nowadays, the topic of nuclear power extension is hotly discussed, and I am afraid that Lai Qingde is "testing the water temperature".
The power crisis is a mess left by Tsai Ing-wen
Earlier articles pointed out that the biggest crisis left by Tsai Ing-wen to Taiwan is that the fragmentation of energy policy has reached the point where it is difficult to continue. Lai Qingde knew that he could not escape and had to solve this problem, so on the eve of his upcoming inauguration as the leader of the Taiwan region, the energy issue was once again hotly discussed, and it was also a signal for the follow-up "policy adjustment".
Summer has not really arrived, but there have been many power outages on the island, and even TSMC and many other major industrial electricity consumers have been coordinated to urgently reduce electricity consumption, and asked TSMC to start its own generators to avoid the occurrence of power outages that may cause Taiwan. Some analysts have pointed out that this shows that the Tsai authorities' repeated emphasis in the past that "Taiwan does not lack electricity" is not credible at all.
Over the past few years, many scholars and experts have repeatedly warned that Taiwan's energy policy is problematic, but the Taiwan authorities have turned a deaf ear to them, and have even packaged the relevant appeals as political attacks. In the case of nuclear power "short supply", the Cai authorities plan to zero nuclear power by 2025, but the reality is that green power cannot meet the nuclear power gap in the short term, and the technology of green power is not yet mature, and there is no guarantee of 24-hour stable power supply. The Taiwan authorities' erroneous energy policy has to bear the cost to the people.
Previously, the Chinese Kuomintang people have criticized Tsai Ing-wen for promoting non-nuclear energy policies, which has had a very significant impact on Taiwan, including the lack of power resilience, power outages, and Taipower's losses on the verge of bankruptcy. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) should reflect on its mistakes and improve its past erroneous policies.
Now, Lai Qingde is about to take office, the "hot potato" has fallen into his hands, and if the mess is not resolved, the first crisis during Lai Qingde's tenure will appear. Taiwan media believes that if the power shortage crisis cannot be solved, Lai Qingde's new economic construction team will fail.
It is reported that Lai Qingde recently announced the list of members of the new economic team. In the official introduction, Guo Zhihui, the head of Lai Qingde's quasi-economic department, was described as spanning semiconductors, biotechnology, optoelectronics, green energy, environmental protection, health and other fields, with a net worth of 10 billion (New Taiwan dollars), known as a "slash economist". Taiwan's "Economic Daily" pointed out that Guo Zhihui will face three major challenges, including stable power supply, energy transition, and how to successfully drive industrial upgrading and transformation in the context of geopolitical and digital transformation and net-zero transformation. Stable power supply is a top priority, and despite the Tsai administration's strong push for renewable energy, Taiwan's power system remains quite fragile.
After Tsai Ing-wen stepped down on May 20, Lai Qingde had to carry the mess left by Tsai Ing-wen every day with trepidation. Therefore, when introducing the new team members, Zhuo Rongtai, the head of the quasi-administrative department of the Lai Ching Tak administration, said that "stable power supply" would be the first priority. The reason is clear, as soon as there is a power outage, Lai Qingde's "disaster" will come.
In fact, on the night when the list of new economic teams was announced, Taipower's standby capacity ratio fell to the red line of 5% again, indicating that Taiwan's power supply shortage is inescapable, and there is no time to wait for the new successor team to slowly study and discuss countermeasures, and energy policy reform is imminent.
The Kuomintang think tank pointed out today (12th) that Lai Qingde should re-examine the energy ratio, and retain nuclear energy as the basic power, maintain a stable power supply, and do not let people's livelihood and industrial electricity use be in the panic of power outages without warning, "Don't fall into the use of lungs to generate electricity, and the whole people pay the health price for the wrong policy."
The Kuomintang think tank said that the wrong energy policy, the deterrence of foreign investment, the inflation caused by the increase in electricity tariffs, and the export impact caused by carbon tariffs are all foreseeable, but what is more worrying is that once Taiwan chooses to give up nuclear energy, and the world's advanced countries and regions are moving towards the road of multiplying nuclear energy, if Taiwan wants to turn back one day, how much will it cost.
In fact, Taiwan's power network is complex, and the renewable energy system developed in recent years is relatively unstable, and the lack of electricity has become a comprehensive problem, not just a problem in individual regions. However, the power supply improvement project promoted by individual regions is not a "right medicine", I am afraid that it will only achieve half the result, and the analysis of systemic causes is the key.
An article on Taiwan's "United News Network" pointed out that Taiwan's electricity price hike has never slowed down, but Taipower's debt figures have continued to climb to a peak. People know that the problem lies in the wrong energy policy. The personnel in the department that manages the power are all laymen, and it is not easy for Taipower to maintain the power supply by carrying the black pot of wrong energy policy and swallowing the accusation of the nest.
The key to the mistakes of energy policy lies in the essence of "seven parts of politics and three points of electricity", and the declaration of energy transition of "reducing coal, increasing gas, developing green, and non-nuclear" has never been just talk. The key is to think about the solution to Taiwan's power shortage.
Author丨Zhuo Yizi, the chief writer of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News