With the continuous development of new energy, the doubts surrounding the fuel policy have become more and more intense.
After all, it's just that you have to pay more for fuel trucks, and there are various restrictions on driving and displacement in the policy - which makes people very unhappy.
I don't know how the top management thinks about it!
However, things are far from being as simple as they seem.
The reason why the state treats the use of fuel vehicles differently is that not many people understand the purpose behind it.
Why? Understand the dilemma we face.
01 What is the dilemma facing the mainland?
Regarding the predicament, many people may not be clear, but in fact, as of 2022, independent brands are still at a disadvantage in the auto market.
To put it bluntly, more than 50% of the market share is occupied by joint venture brands, not to mention mid-to-high-end products - independent cars, which have little market at all.
As a result, a large number of jobs and profits are actually in the hands of foreign brands.
And how big is that number? In 2023 alone, China's annual car sales will be as high as 30.094 million units, with a sales amount of at least 4 trillion yuan.
Using this amount to calculate the benefits of joint ventures in China over the past few decades, it can be said that it is an astronomical amount.
On the other hand, the country's dependence on oil is still very high.
And it's not a matter of a year or two, in fact, since 1993, the mainland's oil imports have been skyrocketing.
In less than 20 years, it has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest oil importer and consumer – once as dependent as 70%.
Although oil can also be produced domestically, the production is really limited, and according to the data of 2023, it can meet 27% of the annual demand.
The point is that this is not deliberately controlled, in fact, the major oil fields are doing their best.
For example, compared to Iraq, the cost of mining is almost seven times more expensive, and we are working hard to find out how difficult it is.
So what does this have to do with the differential treatment of the use of fuel vehicles? Actually, it has a lot to stake.
02 What does it have to do with differential treatment of fuel vehicles?
To put it bluntly, in the case of restrictions, the situation is already like this, and without restrictions, it is estimated that it will be even worse.
Moreover, it is also because of such restrictions that new energy vehicles are given enough time to sprout and grow, so that independent brands can turn over.
Therefore, by 2024, we will see that the market share of independent brands will break through the important threshold of 50%; I saw that brands such as Ideal and Wenjie hit the BBA (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi) market, forcing luxury oil cars to start cutting prices...
At the same time, it has also witnessed the cooperation between Volkswagen Group and Xpeng Motors, and the "miracle" of traditional automobile giants such as Audi and Toyota seeking cooperation from technology companies such as Huawei.
Not only that, but the potential harm of being highly dependent on imported oil is actually greater than we think.
After all, historically, there have been three oil crises in the world, and many countries have experienced recessions because of these three crises.
In order not to follow in their footsteps, it is also of strategic significance to restrict the use of oil trucks and reduce oil dependence.
To put it simply, we can promote the adjustment of the energy structure and avoid certain countries being stuck on oil resources when the international environment changes.
The good theory is clear, but when can we "treat everyone equally" in practical application?
03 When will we be treated equally?
When can we relax the restrictions on fuel vehicles and achieve "equal treatment" in the policy?
This may depend on two key factors: the market share of electric vehicles and the degree of dependence on petroleum resources.
First of all, in terms of market share, although the market penetration rate of electric vehicles has increased significantly, on par with gasoline vehicles, the actual stock of electric vehicles on the road accounts for only 5.5%.
According to the normal law of market development, it may be necessary for the stock of trams to account for about 30%, and the policy restrictions on fuel vehicles will begin to be relaxed.
Considering the current data, this goal is still relatively far away.
Second, dependence on oil resources cannot be ignored.
To put it bluntly, if China's oil resources can be self-sufficient, is it necessary to toss these?
There is no need!
However, as long as one day it is not possible to be self-reliant and has a high degree of dependence on foreign countries, it is difficult to say that this restriction will be relaxed.
After all, it's the same as food strategy, you can't always expect international food prices to be reasonable.
What if? In case one day someone sees your weakness and strikes a fatal blow at your vital point - what do you do to stop it?
All in all, we are not only facing the choice of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, but also an overall consideration involving national energy security, economic independence and environmental future.
Every step taken by the top management, although it may seem unreasonable in the short term, is it necessary for us to seek stability and development in the uncertain international arena in the long run, right?
So, let's try to adapt and understand as much as possible!