Since May, corn has been moving frequently.
After a few rounds of shocks after the festival, it began to mean that it was getting better.
Don't look at the ups and downs of Shandong corn, but there is an important thing in the market recently, that is, the procurement of corn from the central reserve has changed greatly.
Compared with the week before May Day, the central reserve corn has purchased about 500,000 tons, and all of them have been sold.
In the week after the holiday, as of the 11th, a total of 354,000 tons had been purchased, but the transaction was significantly lower, with a turnover rate of only 55%, almost halved.
Don't look at this small change, but it reflects a change in the market's mentality.
With the gradual end of the purchase and sale of corn, the right to grain has been transferred, and the mentality of the main body of trade will inevitably change.
The grain source at the grassroots level has decreased, and the cost of building warehouses for the main body of trade is not low, so there has been a sentiment of reluctance to sell at a high price.
And this is not just a change in mood, in fact, since May Day, corn also seems to be developing a positive trend.
For example, the signal that corn has bottomed out is becoming clearer.
Although the North China market was relatively chaotic after May Day, falling for a while and rising for a while, the pressure on grain sales was also being released rapidly. Although the overall progress is still slow, the time when the pressure on selling grain is at its greatest has passed, which also means that the signal of corn bottoming out is becoming clearer and clearer.
On the other hand, with the launch of wheat, there was some pressure on corn to vacate the warehouse, but who would have thought that wheat would come to a "door and fall", so the demand for the ministry to vacate the warehouse has also become ambiguous.
As for the corn in the Northeast, under the support of increasing reserves, it is also a big and stable small move.
Second, the rotation of corn has become frequent.
Corn also rose and fell before, but every time it was a short time to rise and a long time to fall, especially after entering April, corn fell more like a bottomless pit, and the fall was endless.
But after May Day, there was a change, and the frequency of corn rose and fell faster, and the time for falling was significantly shortened, sometimes only two days before rising again.
This also shows that the market sentiment has become less negative and is already shifting towards good expectations.
So, does this mean that the corn is about to "move"?
I'm afraid I'll have to pour cold water on it.
Because overall, corn has an upward trend, but it lacks the momentum to rise.
What is the biggest power for corn?
Still in demand.
The demand for deep processing has basically peaked, and there is not much room for further improvement, and now most of them are rolling replenishment. So it's okay to support corn, but it's hard to help it rise.
However, it is difficult to improve the demand for feed in the short term.
On the one hand, it is currently on the market for wheat, wheat prices have fallen sharply, and the wait-and-see sentiment of feed companies has become stronger, coupled with sufficient inventory, there is no hurry to replenish the warehouse.
Therefore, it is still difficult for corn to get out of the big market in the short term.
But corn in the long term is not pessimistic.
First, although the current feed demand has not been strengthened, it is not bad in the long run.
On the one hand, in the second half of the year, not to mention whether pig prices can usher in an inflection point, but at least the expectation of a rise is great, and with the rise in pig prices, corn demand will inevitably increase.
On the other hand, although the data of the first quarter shows that the national feed output has declined year-on-year, it is not only the output, but also the proportion of corn.
Affected by the decline in corn, the cost-effective advantage is highlighted, and the proportion of corn consumption is not low, so the demand for feed will not decline significantly.
Second, the substitution of imported cereals has shrunk.
In the first half of the year, a large amount of imported grains, especially barley and sorghum, posed a certain threat to corn.
However, in the second half of the year, the arrival of imported grains has dropped significantly, which means that imports will give way to corn in the second half of the year.
There is demand, there is less substitution, and the hope of corn is coming.
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