【Important Data】SMM China's metal production data released in April 2024

Overview of China's Base Metals Production in April 2024

Electrolytic copper

SMM China's electrolytic copper output in April was 985,100 tons, a decrease of 14,400 tons month-on-month, a decrease of 1.44%, an increase of 1.56% year-on-year, and an increase of 20,100 tons from the expected 965,000 tons. The cumulative output from January to April was 3.9047 million tons, an increase of 222,200 tons or 6.03% year-on-year.

The reason for the month-on-month decline in production in April is that 7 smelters have been overhauled, and the decline in output is not as large as expected, mainly due to the following reasons: 1. The sharp rise in copper prices in April widened the price spread of refined waste, and the supply of blister copper and anode copper increased. This can also be reflected in the continuous rise in the processing fee of blister copper and anode plates (as of April 30, the processing fee of SMM southern domestic blister copper was reported at 1,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan/ton from the previous month; The domestic anode plate processing fee was reported at 1200 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous month), and the smelter can purchase enough raw materials to significantly reduce the impact of maintenance. 2. In April, the price of sulfuric acid rose; Gold and silver prices are at historically high levels, with by-products compensating for production losses and smelters less incentive to voluntarily reduce production. 3. The completion of technical transformation of a smelter in East China and the gradual return to normal output is also one of the reasons why the total output exceeded expectations. 4. Due to the large deduction of recycled copper rods, individual smelters even purchase recycled copper rods as raw materials to ensure output. To sum up, we believe that the overall operating rate of the electrolytic copper industry in April was 86.45%, down 1.55 percentage points month-on-month, of which the operating rate of large-scale smelters was 90.99%, down 3.62 percentage points month-on-month, the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 81.27%, up 3.15 percentage points month-on-month, and the operating rate of small-scale smelters was 66.48%, down 5.37 percentage points month-on-month.

Entering May, more smelters will be overhauled, according to our current statistics, there are 8 smelters to overhaul involving 1.64 million tons of crude refining capacity, which is the main reason for the decline in production in May. However, due to the current abundant supply of blister copper and anode plates, many smelters have sufficient raw materials, which will lead to a smaller than expected decline in production. In addition, a smelter in southwest China began to produce output after relocation, which was also one of the reasons for the small decline in output in May.

SMM expects that the domestic electrolytic copper output in May will be 977,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8,000 tons, a decrease of 0.81%, and a year-on-year increase of 18,300 tons, or 1.91%. The cumulative output from January to May is expected to be 4.8818 million tons, an increase of 5.18% year-on-year, an increase of 240,500 tons. In May, the overall operating rate of the electrolytic copper industry was 85.83%, down 0.62 percentage points month-on-month, of which the operating rate of large-scale smelters was 89.38%, down 1.61 percentage points month-on-month, the operating rate of medium-sized smelters was 82.10%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points month-on-month, and the operating rate of small-scale smelters was 68.50%, up 2.02 percentage points month-on-month. Finally, there are still a large number of smelters to be serviced in June, and production is still expected to decline slightly next month.

Electrolytic aluminum

According to SMM statistics, in April 2024 (30 days), the domestic electrolytic aluminum output was 3.515 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.98%. In April, Yunnan maintained the resumption of production, driving the average daily output of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry to increase slightly month-on-month at around 117,200 tons, and the proportion of molten aluminum in the industry in April rose by 1.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year to about 75.36%. According to the calculation of SMM molten aluminum proportion data, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot volume in April decreased by 2.77% year-on-year to around 865,900 tons.

Production capacity changes: As of the end of April, SMM statistics showed that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.19 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 42.62 million tons, and the industry operating rate increased by 4.31 percentage points year-on-year to 94.31%. The increase in operating capacity this month is mainly due to the continuous promotion of the resumption of production in Yunnan, the current improvement of power supply in Yunnan Province and the high price of aluminum have stimulated the second round of resumption of production of local smelters, and so far, the annualized operating capacity of Yunnan is about 5.15 million tons, an increase of about 660,000 tons from the beginning of March and an increase of 480,000 tons from the beginning of April. In addition, the production capacity of one smelter in Xinjiang and Guangxi that had been shut down earlier due to maintenance and other reasons was re-put into operation, which contributed to the domestic electrolytic aluminum operation capacity this month.

Production forecast: In May 2024, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain rising, mainly due to the steady recovery of power supply in Yunnan and the steady resumption of production of remaining production capacity. SMM expects that Yunnan will have 350,000 tons/year of production capacity in May, and there is no major change in other regions. SMM is expected to increase the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity by about 350,000 tons month-on-month to 42.97 million tons at the end of May, and the output in May (31 days) may reach about 3.64 million tons. In the future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan and the downstream start of aluminum water such as aluminum rods.

alumina

SMM data showed that China's metallurgical-grade alumina output in April (30 days) was 6.679 million tons, with an average daily output of 3,900 tons/day increased month-on-month to 222,600 tons/day. Total production in April decreased by 1.51% month-on-month and increased by 2.20% year-on-year. As of the end of April, China's completed alumina production capacity was 1000000 tons, the operating capacity was 81.27 million tons, and the national operating rate was 81.3%.

In terms of regions, in Shanxi, the operating rate of the province in April was 72.9%, an increase of 2.7% from March, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production in mid-March after a certain type of alumina plant in Shanxi stopped production at the end of 2023 due to insufficient ore supply, and resumed the operation of two lines in April, with a total operating capacity of 2.4 million tons. The operating rate of the province in Henan was 63.1% in April, down 3.3% from the previous month, mainly due to the reduction of pressure production of some local alumina plants due to insufficient ore supply, involving an annual production capacity of about 550,000 tons. In Guizhou, the operating rate of the province in April rose by 6.9% month-on-month to 83.4%, mainly due to the suspension of production of individual alumina plants in the early stage due to ore supply problems, involving an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, and then gradually resumed production in mid-March, as of the end of April, the operating capacity of the plant climbed to about 500,000 tons, and an alumina plant in Guizhou reduced production in April due to insufficient ore supply, involving an annual production capacity of about 150,000 tons; The overall production of alumina in Hebei in April was stable, and the operating rate remained 88.7%; In Guangxi, the operating rate in April increased slightly by 1.4% to 85.8% compared with March, mainly due to the impact of 24,000 tons of production of an alumina plant due to a natural gas pipeline failure in the early stage, the plant resumed production in early April, and in early April, Guangxi stopped production due to ore supply problems, and resumed 500,000 tons of operating capacity in late April. In Shandong, the province's start-up in April was relatively stable, and the operating rate remained 92.5%.

Forecast for next month: According to SMM research, there are rumors in the market recently that some mines in Shanxi may resume production one after another, according to SMM's latest research, there is no actual resumption of production, the resumption of production progress or relatively slow, the actual increase in bauxite production remains to be seen, an alumina in Sanmenxia area resumed a production line in early May, involving an annual production capacity of about 500,000 tons, in addition to the supply of alumina in Jinyu region is difficult to have a large increase in the short term; An alumina plant in Shandong will end its roasting and maintenance in May, and the output may increase slightly in the month; There are still about 100,000 tons of production capacity in Guizhou to be restored, and the company reported that the progress of resumption of production depends on the supply of ore. Therefore, SMM expects an average daily output of 224,300 tons/day in May 2024, and a total operating capacity of about 81.87 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year.

Overseas electrolytic aluminum

According to SMM statistics, the total overseas output of electrolytic aluminum in April 2024 (30 days) was 2.45 million tons, up about 1.1% year-on-year. The average capacity utilization rate of overseas electrolytic aluminum in April was about 87.5%, a slight increase of 0.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. From January to April 2024, the cumulative output of overseas electrolytic aluminum was 9.863 million tons, up 1.2% year-on-year.

By region, North America saw a 3.3% y/y decline in April. In the U.S., the New Madrid plant has completely stopped production in March 2024; Alcoa's Warrick smelter announced the resumption of production of a 54,000-tonne production line at the end of 2023 and expects the plant to return to around 75% capacity utilization by April 2024.

In South America, production in the region rose 4.7% year-on-year to 126,000 tonnes as Alcoa's Alumar smelter has been in a slower reopening process since April 2022. SMM estimates that capacity utilization at the plant had returned to around 70% by the end of April.

Russia's total production of electrolytic aluminium rose 3.1% year-on-year to 340,000 mt, thanks to the reopening of UC RUSAL's Taishet plant. According to SMM, the Taishet plant produced about 18,000 tons in April, and the capacity utilization rate was about 52%.

In the European region (excluding Russia), production edged up 0.2% to 296,000 tonnes in April. In Germany, the Neuss plant has been discontinued since the beginning of 2024. The other three smelters in Essen, Hamburg and Voerde have reduced production since 2021 due to factors such as rising energy costs, and by the end of 2023 they were operating at an operating efficiency of only 30%. It is reported that the above three smelters have started to slowly resume production in April 2024. In addition, the resumption of production at the San Ciprian plant in Spain is still facing difficulties, and is currently operating at an operating efficiency of only 6%. Alcoa has already initiated the potential sale process for the complex in the first quarter of 2024 and expects to complete the bidding process by June 2024. In addition, Romania's Slatina smelter will also slowly resume production in 2024, with capacity utilization recovering from 76% at the end of 2023 to 87% in the first quarter of 2024. SMM estimates the smelter's output in April at about 19,100 tonnes.

Significant increases in electrolytic aluminium production have been observed in Asia, especially in Indonesia. Indonesia's Huaqing Aluminum's smelter will be put into operation in 2023 and will have a capacity of 500,000 tons in 2024. SMM estimates that production in April 2024 will be around 20,000 tonnes and a capacity utilization rate of 50%.

Smelters in other regions are running steadily, especially in India. India's electrolytic aluminum output in April was 338,000 tons, up 1.8% year-on-year.

Primary lead

In April 2024, the national electrolytic lead output was 291,500 tons, down 0.74% month-on-month and 7.41% year-on-year. The cumulative volume from January to April 2024 decreased by 4.38% year-on-year. In 2024, the total production capacity of the enterprises involved in the survey will be 6,006,300 tons.

According to the survey, in April, the maintenance and recovery of electrolytic lead smelting enterprises were parallel, and the overall output showed a slight downward trend. At the same time, since April, lead prices have shown a volatile upward trend, and the price of by-product silver has reached a record high, and the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises has improved, bringing an increase of more than 10,000 tons. At the same time, large and medium-sized enterprises in Henan, Hunan, Yunnan and other regions have maintenance, and more brand enterprises have been delivered, resulting in a reduction of nearly 20,000 tons. On the whole, the production of electrolytic lead enterprises in April roughly offset the increase and decrease, and the output changed little.

Looking forward to May, the maintenance of electrolytic lead smelters will increase, and the supply of raw materials such as lead concentrate will intensify, and it is expected that the output of electrolytic lead will continue to decline in May. On the one hand, the maintenance of smelting enterprises in Hunan, Yunnan and other smelters that were overhauled in April has not yet been restored, and the maintenance of enterprises in other regions has been added; On the other hand, the lead concentrate processing fee once again refreshed the historical low, such as SMMPb50 domestic TC quotation of 600-800 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton from April, which is low silver and lead concentrate processing fee level, high silver and lead concentrate market is zero processing fee, or negative processing fee increases, individual has been as low as -700 yuan / metal ton, which also means that the supply of lead concentrate restricts the output of lead ingot to a certain extent. Overall, SMM expects a slight decline in lead electrolytic production to 287,000 tons in May.

Regeneration 铅

In April 2024, the output of recycled lead was 374,400 tons, down 0.98% from March and up 4.35% from last year; From January to April 2024, the cumulative output of recycled lead was 1.2829 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.93%. In April 2024, the output of recycled refined lead was 327,000 tons, down 0.9% from March and up 6.87% from last year; From January to April 2024, the cumulative output of recycled refined lead was 1.1013 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%.

April coincides with the off-season of traditional consumption of lead-acid batteries, the demand for replacement of waste batteries is low, and the supply is tight due to the limited amount of scrap. The quotation of waste batteries in recycled lead refineries has been raised for many days, and waste battery recyclers are bullish and reluctant to sell, and shipments have declined. The raw material inventory of recycled lead refineries has decreased significantly, and many refineries across the country have reduced production. In addition, in late April, the "reverse invoicing" policy of the recycling industry was announced, and the increase in taxes and fees raised the recycling costs of waste battery traders. Entering May, the continuous increase in procurement costs increased the pressure on the capital operation of individual refineries, while several large refineries stopped production due to equipment failures, environmental protection certificate renewal and other reasons, and the decline in refined lead production increased, SMM expects the output of recycled refined lead to decline by 31,400 tons to 295,600 tons in May.

Refined zinc

In April 2024, SMM China's refined zinc output was 504,600 tons, down 20,900 tons month-on-month or 3.99% month-on-month, down 6.56% year-on-year, and the cumulative output in January ~ April was 2.1 million tons, down 0.47% year-on-year, basically in line with expectations. Among them, the domestic zinc alloy output in April was 95,500 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons month-on-month.

In April, the output of domestic smelters declined, mainly due to the routine maintenance of smelters in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Gansu and other places, and the reduction was obvious, in addition to the smelter equipment maintenance and raw material production reduction in Henan, Shaanxi, Yunnan, Hunan and other places. However, the maintenance and recovery of smelters in Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Sichuan, Yunnan and Qinghai contributed a certain increase.

SMM expects domestic refined zinc production to increase by 26,800 tons month-on-month to 531,400 tons in May 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.86%, and the cumulative output from January to May will be 2.631 million tons. The increase in output in May was mainly due to the recovery of smelters in Gansu, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Hunan, Henan and Sichuan in the early stage and the increase in output, as well as the release of new production capacity in Hunan to contribute a certain increment; However, at the same time, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Hunan and other places have reduced the amount due to raw material problems and equipment maintenance, and the overall output has increased.

Refining tin

According to SMM research, the output of domestic refined tin reached 16,545 tons in April, an increase of 6.36% month-on-month from March and an increase of 10.64% compared with the same period last year. In Yunnan, although a smelter suspended the production of refined tin in April due to handover issues, another company achieved a small increase in production, but this company has no long-term plan to increase production, and its subsequent production needs to rely on the supply of raw materials. On the whole, the output of tin ingots in Yunnan in April was basically the same as that in March; In Jiangxi, some smelters have benefited from the abundant supply of scrap in the market recently, and their output has increased significantly compared with March. However, in Inner Mongolia, a smelter saw a slight reduction in production due to tin ore supply problems. At the same time, a smelter in Guangxi also saw a decline in tin ingot production due to equipment maintenance. In contrast, most smelters in Anhui and elsewhere maintained a normal production rhythm in April. Looking ahead to May, most smelters in Yunnan are expected to maintain normal production, but the timing of the resumption of production of one company that has been suspended due to handover issues is unknown. In Jiangxi, most smelters plan to maintain normal production, and a few are expected to achieve a slight increase in output. In addition, a smelter in Hubei is planning to resume production due to the abundant supply of scrap in the market. Most smelters in other regions have basically maintained normal production. It is expected that the domestic output of tin ingots will reach 17,015 tons in May 2024, an increase of 2.84% month-on-month and 8.65% year-on-year.

Electrolytic nickel

In April 2024, the country's refined nickel output totaled 24,700 tons, a decrease of 1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 39.8%. In April, the country's refined nickel output decreased slightly, in line with expectations. In April, some nickel enterprises were affected by equipment maintenance, and the output has not fully recovered to the level before the maintenance. On the other hand, a small number of nickel enterprises have been affected by the shortage of raw materials and have not yet reached the planned output target.

It is estimated that the national refined nickel output in May 2024 will be 25,800 tons, which is a significant rebound compared with the refined nickel output in April. According to SMM research, affected by the continuous rise in nickel prices during April, manufacturers' enthusiasm for producing electronickel recovered, and with the impact of electronickel expansion progress, the output of some electronickel plants remained climbing. On the other hand, the output of electronickel producers in Northwest China is expected to return to the level before the production reduction in May, and the output of new nickel plates at the beginning of the year is still in the climbing stage. In summary, refined nickel production in May 2024 is expected to be raised by 4.45% month-on-month.

Nickel pig iron

In April 2024, the national nickel pig iron output was 26,700 nickel tons, 647,000 physical tons, a decrease of 2.15% month-on-month and a month-on-month decrease of 3.40% in metal tons. Among them, high-nickel pig iron is about 205,000 physical tons, 20,200 metal tons, high-nickel pig iron is about 9,400 metal tons, and low-nickel pig iron is about 442,000 physical tons, 6,500 metal tons. In April, the national nickel pig iron declined, mainly due to the impact of Eid al-Fitr in April, the slowdown of Indonesia's RKAB approval, the disturbance of Indonesia's mine end has not been alleviated, the nickel ore procurement sentiment of domestic nickel pig iron smelters is weak, the nickel ore of smelters is still mainly digested by inventory, the cost of nickel ore is high, the cost inversion pattern of domestic smelters has not been repaired, and some domestic enterprises have been overhauled and suspended, and the resumption of production time is unknown. In addition, some areas were affected by spring environmental inspections, and the output of the production rhythm was adjusted and declined slightly. On the other hand, by the March stainless steel price shock downward, resulting in a heavy market panic, April stainless steel futures orders are not optimistic, integrated steel mills to adjust the product structure to cope with market fluctuations, 300 series stainless steel production slightly declined, resulting in a slight decline in the integration of red nickel pig iron.

It is estimated that the national nickel pig iron output in May 2024 will be around 27,600 metal tons, and the metal volume will increase by 3.2% month-on-month compared with the output in April. According to SMM research, some domestic smelters are expected to resume production in May, but due to the high cost of domestic nickel pig iron, the total amount of resumption of production is limited. In addition, the total amount of ferronickel red sent by integrated steel mills is driven by the current demand for stainless steel. In summary, it is expected that domestic nickel pig iron production will increase slightly during May.

Indonesian nickel pig iron

In April 2024, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output was 111,900 nickel tons, down 5.08% month-on-month and up 2.9% year-on-year. The cumulative output in 2024 will be 465,600 nickel tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 14.7%. In terms of supply, although there was no public new data on the approval quota of RKAB nickel ore in April, according to SMM research, the actual approval progress is still slowly advancing, and the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia has received a small increase. In terms of demand, Indonesian smelters have been affected by the continuous rise in domestic nickel pig iron prices, and their enthusiasm for purchasing nickel ore has increased. However, due to the impact of tight market supply, the current premium for mining laterite nickel ore is still at a high level. It is expected that with the increase in the actual supply of tradable laterite nickel ore in the Indonesian market in May, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production will gradually increase to a certain extent.

Nickel sulfate

In April 2024, the national nickel sulfate output was 34,500 metal tons, and the national physical ton output was 156,600 physical tons, an increase of 1.25% month-on-month and 14.21% year-on-year. Limited by the tight supply of raw materials, the output of nickel salts in April was less than expected. In addition, the temporary inspection of the customs delayed the arrival time of raw materials, resulting in a limited increase in nickel salt.

In May, due to the tight supply of raw materials and the inversion of profits, the national nickel sulfate output in April 2024 is expected to be 33,200 metal tons, and the national physical ton output is 150,900 physical tons, a decrease of 3.63% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.40%.

Battery-grade manganese sulfate

In April 2024, the mainland's high-purity manganese sulfate output was about 17,000 tons, an increase of 1.19% month-on-month. According to the survey, the output of high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises increased slightly compared with March. The main reason is that although most of the downstream ternary precursor enterprises have a relatively complete recycling system, they will still maintain rigid demand for purchase, and the market demand has increased slightly, which has driven the output of high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises to increase and the production capacity to be further released. In April, due to the problem of manganese ore ports, traders are reluctant to sell high prices, superimposed sulfuric acid and liquid soda prices are stable and high, the cost support of high-purity manganese sulfate has risen again, and the factories in Guizhou have stopped production. It is expected that in May, the quotation of high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises affected by the raw material end is running firmly, the orders of downstream precursor enterprises are relatively stable, and individual enterprises that have migrated from Guizhou to Guangxi have begun normal production. Because combined with the market situation, the output of high-purity manganese sulfate will still increase slightly in May, and it is expected to achieve about 20,000 physical tons, an increase of 17.60% month-on-month.

Electrolytic manganese dioxide

SMM data shows that in April 2024, the output of electrolytic manganese dioxide in the mainland was 15,600 tons (including 1,800 tons of lithium manganese oxide, 9,400 tons of alkali manganese, and 4,400 tons of carbon-zinc), an increase of 6.25% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year. According to the survey, the output of lithium manganese oxide electrolytic manganese dioxide increased slightly in April, and the output of alkali manganese and carbon-zinc type did not fluctuate much compared with March, and was relatively stable. The reasons are: First, the downstream lithium manganese oxide market has recovered, the demand has picked up slightly, and there is a certain replenishment situation, which has driven the production of lithium manganese electrolytic manganese dioxide to increase. Second, April began to enter the hot weather, the temperature is too high is not conducive to the output of the primary battery, there may be electrolyte seepage, so the new orders of carbon-zinc and alkali manganese manganese dioxide are less, and the demand has not increased significantly. Therefore, combined with market feedback, the overall market situation of manganese dioxide is relatively stable, and it is expected that in May, the downstream demand for lithium manganese oxide will return to flat, and the output of electrolytic manganese dioxide corresponding to lithium manganese dioxide will not continue to rise. And the primary battery is a daily consumable, the demand is relatively stable, the output of the enterprise will not fluctuate greatly, and it is expected that the output of electrolytic manganese dioxide in May will be about 16,000 tons.

Manganese tetroxide

SMM data shows that in April 2024, the output of manganese tetroxide in the mainland was 9,900 tons (including 5,100 tons of electronic grade and 4,800 tons of battery grade), an increase of 6.45% month-on-month and 4.98% year-on-year. In April, the output of electronic-grade manganese tetroxide and battery-grade manganese tetroxide both increased slightly. The reasons are: 1. Lithium manganese oxide cathode enterprises have entered the traditional small peak season, downstream demand has been further released, and the purchase volume of battery-grade manganese tetroxide has increased compared with March, which has driven the production schedule of manganese tetroxide enterprises to increase. 2. Due to the difference in the price of electrolytic manganese dioxide and manganese tetroxide, most lithium manganese oxide enterprises prefer to choose manganese tetroxide for production, so as to optimize costs and improve competitiveness, and the market for manganese tetroxide is gradually expanding. It is expected that in May, with the gradual increase in market competition and the continued high price of manganese, the proportion of manganese tetroxide in the market will gradually increase, the enthusiasm of market production will be improved, and the production capacity will be further released. However, due to the slowdown in demand for lithium manganese oxide, the output will not increase significantly compared with April, and the sales and production model will be maintained. Therefore, from the perspective of the overall market situation, the total output of manganese tetroxide in May is expected to be about 10,400 tons.

High-carbon ferrochrome

SMM data shows that in April 2024, the national high-carbon ferrochrome output will further rise, breaking through the historical peak, to 73.68, an increase of 75,600 tons month-on-month, an increase of 11.43%; an increase of 180,600 tons year-on-year, an increase of 32.47%. Among them, the output of Inner Mongolia was 492,500 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons or 3.42% month-on-month; The output in Guizhou was 39,500 tons, an increase of 50.92% month-on-month. Entering the gold three silver four, stainless steel consumption picked up, and the price of mainstream stainless steel mills rose sharply in April. The profit recovery of ferrochrome manufacturers, the enthusiasm for production, coupled with the early release time of this round of steel recruitment, left enough time for the resumption of production of raw materials for the discontinued iron plant, and there were more new furnaces put into operation and resumed production in the month, and the output of ferrochrome increased significantly.

The output of high-carbon ferrochrome in May is expected to be 750,200 tons, which will be further higher than the output in April. In May, the volume and production of steel mills were further improved, and steel mills had higher requirements for the stability of domestic ferrochrome raw material supply. Sichuan has entered a period of flat and abundant water, electricity prices have fallen, production profits have increased, and Sichuan Iron Works has fully resumed production, which is expected to further increase the already high ferrochrome output.

stainless steel

According to SMM research, the national stainless steel output in April 2024 totaled about 3.1663 million tons, a decrease of about 0.37% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of about 8.99% from March. Among them, the output of 200 series stainless steel was about 865,700 tons, an increase of about 22.91% month-on-month; The output of 300 series stainless steel was about 1.6385 million tons, a decrease of about 3.16% from the previous month; The output of 400 series stainless steel was about 662,100 tons, an increase of about 7.69% from the previous month.

At the beginning of April, the overall market of stainless steel was weak, the price continued to decline, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel in the middle of the year improved, affected by the cost and profit loss of stainless steel and the shortage of water quenched nickel raw materials, some stainless steel factories were originally scheduled to reduce production in April, and from mid-April, the terminal demand for stainless steel rebounded superimposed on the arrival of steel mills to control the market, and the supply of nickel ore on the macro side was slow. On the other hand, a steel mill in Zhejiang restored 20,000 tons of 300 series stainless steel production capacity in early April and the daily steelmaking volume of a steel mill in Jiangsu also increased significantly after the upgrade of the production line, and the 400 series stainless steel 3, the overall consumption in April was acceptable, and the steel mill took the initiative to transfer about 40,000 tons of production capacity to the 400 series stainless steel production line, so the overall stainless steel production in April 2,300 series slightly reduced, while the 400 series increased production.

In May, after the holiday, social inventory and again accumulated inventory, downstream demand weakened compared with April, nickel ore supply problems still exist high nickel pig iron prices continue to rise, stainless steel actual transactions are weak in the short term, but the cost line moves to the bottom of the cost support force is stronger, not in the short term difficult to rise and fall, stainless steel mills under price pressure still develop a production increase plan, is expected to increase production by 9.18% month-on-month in April, 300 series stainless steel will appear about 90,000 tons of production, in mid-May a stainless steel plant in central China is expected to resume production, The output of 200 series stainless steel is expected to increase by about 20,000 tons, and the output of 400 series stainless steel is expected to decrease due to the increase in profit loss due to the rise in high chromium.

Electrolytic manganese

SMM data shows that the mainland's electrolytic manganese output in April 2024 was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 3.76% month-on-month and 4.53% year-on-year. The main reason for the decrease in production in April was that some manganese plants remained shut down throughout April due to production scheduling plans or cost factors. In addition, the number of days in the natural month is shortened, so the output has decreased to a certain extent. On the demand side: in April, the overall domestic stainless steel output showed a downward trend, of which the output of 300 series stainless steel fell significantly, but the purchase demand of steel mills was acceptable.

Entering May, the overall operation of manganese plants still maintained 70% of the production capacity, so the overall monthly supply of manganese market fluctuated little. According to the manganese plant production scheduling survey, the supply side is expected to produce about 97,400 tons in May.

Silicon-manganese alloys

SMM data shows that the total output of silicon-manganese alloy in China in April 2024 was 778,000 tons, a decrease of 3.77% month-on-month and 13.15% year-on-year. The main reason for the reduction of silicon-manganese this month is that the high operating rate in northern regions such as Inner Mongolia is maintained, and the overall production is still maintained during the holiday, and the output of the whole month is still maintained at a relatively high position; Although some enterprises in Ningxia are more sensitive to prices, they basically maintain production, and the daily output does not fluctuate much. In the southern region, due to rising costs, production pressure is relatively high, and the overall operating rate continues to shrink. Therefore, on the whole, the operating rate in some areas decreased, coupled with the small number of natural days in April, the output of silicon manganese turned to decrease, and the total output of silicon manganese in the country decreased in April.

Entering May, enterprises in cost-advantaged areas such as Inner Mongolia started to maintain. However, considering the strengthening of silicon-manganese cost support, the growth of silicon-manganese production is still under pressure. Therefore, the overall silicon-manganese production in May is expected to fluctuate little at about 773,000 tons.

Industrial silicon

According to SMM statistics, China's industrial silicon output in April 2024 was 358,700 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons, a decrease of 2.1%, and a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. From January to April 2024, China's cumulative industrial silicon output was 1.4159 million tons, an increase of 257,100 tons or 22.2% year-on-year.

In March, the spot price of industrial silicon accelerated its decline, and although the decline in silicon prices narrowed in April, the trend stabilized, but the market was still relatively sluggish, the market maintained on-demand procurement, and the market had little bullish mentality about the market outlook. In the context of the general losses of small silicon enterprises, the weak ability of small silicon enterprises to resist risks, and the flexibility of production start-stop maintenance, some small silicon enterprises reduced production in April, mainly in Yunnan, Gansu, Shaanxi and other places. The head enterprises have certain advantages in the complementary links of the industrial chain, superimposed on the enterprise strategy, the operating rate of large silicon enterprises remained stable, among which the number of large factories in Xinjiang increased production in April, and the number of furnaces increased due to the superposition of early technical transformation, and the output climbed to a historical high in early May. Under the increase and decrease of various regions, the total output of industrial silicon in April decreased by about 8,000 tons month-on-month.

In May, southern Sichuan has been in a flat period, the cost and profit are limited to the resumption of production, some enterprises wait and see the opportunity to resume production after the wet period, Yunnan manufacturers are concentrated in Baoshan area, Dehong Zhou and other suspended silicon enterprises in May also basically have no resumption of production or increase production plan. Most of the medium and large-scale silicon enterprises in the north maintain normal production, and as the output of the leading enterprises continues to release after the production increases, it is expected that the output of industrial silicon in May will increase to around 370,000 tons month-on-month.

Polysilicon

In April, the domestic polysilicon output was about 181,200 tons, an increase of 5.8% from March, mainly due to the continuous ramp-up of new production lines. In May, a number of polysilicon companies were overhauled, including many first-tier manufacturers, involving an output of more than 5,000 tons, but at the same time, due to the ramp-up of Tongwei Baoshan and Daqo Inner Mongolia Phase 2, the production schedule in May still increased slightly, but the growth rate slowed down significantly.

Photovoltaic modules

According to SMM statistics, China's module production schedule will reach 55.1GW in April, an increase of 1.29% month-on-month from March. Module manufacturers began to cut production in April, but the overall market demand remained slightly weak, and module production was largely stable in May.

Photovoltaic cells

The actual volume of cells in April was 61.88GW, an increase of 9.07% month-on-month and 34.52% year-on-year. In April, the output of N-type cells reached 44.05GW, accounting for about 71.18% of the total output, and the downstream demand for topcon cells in April was as high as more than 42GW, with both supply and demand growth, and the pre-holiday inventory level was well controlled, while the output of P-type cells in April was 17.83GW, and the demand for P-type cells was weak in April, with serious inventory accumulation, and the demand is expected to weaken further in May.

Photovoltaic glass

According to SMM statistics, the monthly output of domestic photovoltaic glass in April was 2.3658 million tons, a slight decrease of 2.89% from March, due to the decrease of 1 day in production days compared with March, but due to the early ignition kiln began to increase, the supply began to increase, so the output decreased month-on-month but decreased less, a total of 4 kilns were ignited in China in April, and the supply is expected to increase more.

DMC

According to SMM statistics, the output of organic silicon in China in April was 186,300 tons, a decrease of 4.66% from the previous month. The operating rate of the industry in April was 77.90%. The reason for the decrease in production in April is that in the context of falling prices, some single enterprises due to the reduction in profits, the willingness to stop increases, in April, the three domestic single enterprises stopped production and reduced the burden, and the start of production led to a decline, and the production schedule in June improved slightly, and the single enterprise has no new maintenance plan for the time being.

Magnesium ingots

According to SMM data, China's magnesium ingot production in April 2024 was 64,286 tons, down 1% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year.

In April 2024, some magnesium plants will successively implement maintenance plans according to the capital situation and cost situation, and the output of magnesium ingots will continue to be adjusted downward. The reason for the decrease in magnesium ingot production this month is: due to the oversupply of magnesium ingots in early March and the shortage of funds in magnesium plants, magnesium prices in March were under pressure all the way down, and magnesium factories continued to reduce prices to stimulate downstream procurement in order to alleviate financial pressure, but blindly price concessions failed to effectively go to the warehouse, but made magnesium prices continue to fall all the way unhindered, and the panic of magnesium factories became stronger.

At the beginning of May, the manufacturers that had stopped production in the early stage successively ignited and resumed production, and the supply of magnesium ingots increased. In terms of supply and demand, some orders at the end of April were postponed to early May, and the stocking before May Day continued to affect the post-holiday period, supported by domestic and foreign demand, magnesium prices picked up in early May, but the current demand is difficult to consume the production of magnesium ingots, magnesium prices continue to rise and the momentum is not strong, and in time under the strong cost support, magnesium plants will also face the risk of losses due to price decline, magnesium plants have the possibility of early maintenance, SMM expects that the output of magnesium ingots in May will increase at 73,000 tons.

Magnesium alloy

SMM data shows that China's magnesium alloy output in April 2024 was 30,680 tons, up 15.6% month-on-month and 15.1% year-on-year.

In April, magnesium alloy downstream processing enterprises started to improve, magnesium alloy factories were in normal full production, and magnesium alloy output increased by 15% month-on-month. The reason for this month's output increase is that downstream and terminal die-casting plants purchased on demand, and some magnesium alloy production enterprises reached full production, and magnesium alloy output increased by 15% month-on-month in April. Affected by the sluggish domestic economy, the overall demand for magnesium alloy market is sluggish. Judging from the current domestic magnesium alloy enterprise orders, the sharp rise in aluminum prices has greatly highlighted the cost performance of magnesium alloy, and it is expected that magnesium alloy orders will improve slightly, and SMM expects that the output of magnesium alloy will remain stable at 30,000 tons in May.

Magnesium powder

According to SMM data, China's magnesium powder output in April 2024 was 5,976 tons, up 22% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year.

In April, the output of magnesium powder decreased slightly, and the output of some magnesium powder enterprises decreased due to many factors such as the cold order situation of magnesium powder enterprises and the strong wait-and-see sentiment caused by the price fluctuation of magnesium ingots. The person in charge of a large magnesium powder enterprise said that affected by the downturn in the domestic economic situation, the profits of steel mills are weak, the price of magnesium ingots changes frequently, and the downstream procurement attitude of magnesium powder is more cautious. Considering that low-priced magnesium ingots may stimulate an increase in magnesium powder orders, SMM expects the domestic production of magnesium powder to remain at 6,000 tons in May.

Titanium sponge

SMM data shows that China's titanium sponge output in April 2024 was 21,000 tons, an increase of 5% month-on-month.

In April, the new production capacity of some large titanium sponge factories was gradually released, and the rest of the enterprises started basically stable, and the output of titanium sponge increased slightly month-on-month. In April, the overall demand for titanium sponge market is improving, the overall military demand is relatively stable, the demand for civilian titanium has increased, and the titanium sponge enterprises are supported by orders in hand, and the price of titanium sponge is temporarily running smoothly, considering that some titanium sponge enterprises continue to release new production capacity, it is expected that the output of titanium sponge will increase to 22,000 tons in May.

Praseodymium neodymium metal

In April 2024, the domestic output of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 5,866 tons, an increase of 2.13% month-on-month.

SMM learned from metal mills that the terminal market continued to improve in the second quarter, the demand for metal ends strengthened, the factories accelerated the action of destocking, the output of some metal factories rose in April, and the effect of the peak season consumption of rare earth market was gradually reflected. From some domestic magnetic enterprises, the current magnetic enterprises are better at receiving orders, and the output of magnetic materials in May is expected to remain high, but due to fierce market competition, profit growth is not as expected, it is expected that the follow-up demand for metals at the end of the magnetic material end will remain strong, and the output of praseodymium neodymium metal is expected to maintain growth in May.

Praseodymium neodymium oxide

In April 2024, the domestic output of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 5,967 tons, an increase of 0.37% month-on-month. There has been a significant increase mainly in Guangxi.

According to SMM research, in April, a separation plant in Jiangxi was shut down for maintenance, and the local output of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased slightly month-on-month. Although the import volume of rare earth ores in the United States has decreased, some separation plants still have unconsumed raw material stocks, and the local rare earth mines in Sichuan can also make up for the reduction in American mines, and the local output of praseodymium and neodymium has not changed significantly. In April, the price trend of praseodymium and neodymium was improving, and the operating rate of some separation plants in Guangxi was raised, and the local output of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 17% month-on-month.

Dysprosium oxide

In April 2024, the domestic output of dysprosium oxide was 217 tons, a decrease of 0.8% month-on-month, and the main reduction was reflected in Jiangxi.

According to SMM, some separation plants in Jiangxi Province underwent equipment maintenance in April and did not start production that month, resulting in a 3% reduction in local dysprosium oxide production month-on-month. It is reported that due to environmental reasons, the separation plant in Longnan will be shut down in May, and it is expected that the output of rare earth oxides in Jiangxi will continue to shrink in May.

Terbium oxide

In April 2024, the domestic terbium oxide output was 40.8 tons, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month, mainly reflected in the Jiangxi region, where the local production decreased by about 12%.

According to SMM's research, some separation plants in Jiangxi Province underwent equipment maintenance in April, resulting in the suspension of production in that month, and the local terbium oxide output was significantly reduced month-on-month. According to the news, due to environmental protection reasons, the separation plant in Longnan area will be shut down in the near future, and it is expected that the output of terbium oxide in Jiangxi in May will still be reduced month-on-month.

Gadolinium oxide

In April 2024, the domestic output of gadolinium oxide was 306.2 tons, a decrease of 1% month-on-month, and the main reduction was reflected in Jiangxi.

According to SMM, at present, some separation plants in Jiangxi are about to stop production, and some enterprises have begun to stop production and maintenance as early as April, and the local gadolinium oxide production in April has been reduced by 13%, and it is expected to continue to shrink in May.

Holmium oxide

In April 2024, the domestic output of holmium oxide was 43 tons, a month-on-month decrease of about 2%. Production in Guangxi and Jiangsu both decreased to a certain extent month-on-month.

According to SMM research, due to the equipment maintenance of some enterprises, the output of holmium oxide in Guangxi and Jiangsu has decreased month-on-month, of which the output in Guangxi has decreased by about 9% month-on-month, and the output in Jiangxi has decreased by 12% month-on-month.

Molybdenum concentrate

According to SMM statistics, China's molybdenum concentrate output in April was about 17,300 tons, an increase of 4.9% month-on-month.

In April, under the favorable promotion of stable follow-up of downstream demand and good growth expectations, molybdenum concentrate performed profitably, and domestic molybdenum mines mostly maintained stable output; In addition, some large-scale molybdenum mines in the northern region have also returned to normal production, driving the output of molybdenum concentrate to increase steadily.

Entering May, molybdenum mining enterprises are bullish on prices, and there is no maintenance plan for the time being, and it is expected that the output of molybdenum concentrate will continue to remain stable in May.

Ferro-molybdenum

According to SMM statistics, China's ferro-molybdenum output in April was about 16,200 tons, an increase of 3.5% month-on-month.

From March to April, the monthly steel volume of domestic ferro-molybdenum exceeded 12,000 tons, and the demand was strong.

Entering May, the production schedule of molybdenum-containing steel in downstream steel mills is still at a high level, so SMM expects that the output of ferro-molybdenum in May may increase steadily.

silver

According to SMM survey statistics, the output of 1# silver in April 2024 was 1531.764 tons (of which the output of mineral silver was 1045.764 tons), a decrease of 22.806 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 1.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.8%.

Production fell slightly month-on-month, but rose sharply year-on-year. Affected by the high price of silver in April, the output of various enterprises increased and decreased month-on-month, among which the increase in output of enterprises to mineral silver enterprises, due to the higher price of silver in April, while more associated by-products, so the market sentiment towards mine procurement is higher, especially the purchase volume of foreign mines has also increased. At the same time, due to the continuous rise of silver for three consecutive weeks in April, and the high point of silver prices in the past four years, smelters are highly motivated to ship, and some enterprises use inventory raw materials to increase production. The main reason for the reduction in production was the higher prices of silver-containing materials, the rise in production costs, and the slight suppression of corporate purchasing sentiment, so the output decreased month-on-month, and the output in April decreased slightly month-on-month.

silver nitrate

In April, the domestic silver nitrate market demand was strong, with a monthly output of nearly 1,000 tons. In April, the output of domestic silver nitrate enterprises with production and sales qualifications was 995 tons, an increase of 32.7% month-on-month and 80.6% year-on-year. In April, the orders of silver nitrate enterprises in various regions of the country soared, mainly due to: 1. The increase in downstream demand. 2. Silver prices plummeted in the last week of April, and market purchasing sentiment was high. 3. Approaching the May Day holiday, the market holiday production and stocking sentiment is affected.

As the price of silver began to fluctuate in May, the market orders were relatively flat, and there were also raw material inventories in April, and the output of the silver nitrate market is expected to fall in May.

锑锭

According to SMM survey statistics, the actual output of antimony ingots (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, cathode antimony, etc.) in April 2024 was 6,086.115 tons, a slight increase of 4.64% month-on-month compared with 5,816.151 tons in March this year. After the sharp rebound in antimony ingot production in March, the output of antimony ingots in April remained stable and rose slightly, which was also expected by the market, but due to the shortage of raw materials, there were also some new manufacturers into the shutdown situation, the output of a few manufacturers increased or decreased slightly, and some manufacturers resumed production, on the whole, the output of most manufacturers was basically stable or rose slightly, so compared with the previous month, the output in April also showed a slight increase, but compared with the same period in previous years, it was still significantly reduced. At present, raw material resources are still relatively concentrated in the hands of some factories, and it is still difficult for many manufacturers to resume production or continue to increase production.

In detail, 13 of the 33 SMM survey respondents have stopped production, a decrease of 3 compared with the previous month; 19 manufacturers showed a state of output reduction, an increase of 3 compared with the previous month; The output of 1 manufacturer was basically normal, unchanged from the previous month. SMM expects that antimony production has returned to its normal operating cycle in April, but with the arrival of an environmental inspection team in Hunan in May, it may affect production in Hunan. It is expected that the national antimony ingot output in May 2024 will be more likely to decline than that in April 2024, but the magnitude of the increase or decrease also needs to observe the changes in the supply status of antimony raw materials such as imported ores and domestic mines.

Note: Since May 2022, SMM has announced the national production of antimony ingots (including antimony ingots, crude antimony conversion, cathode antimony, etc.). Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the antimony industry, a total of 33 SMM antimony ingot manufacturers were surveyed, distributed in 8 provinces across the country, with a total sample production capacity of more than 20,000 tons and a total production capacity coverage rate of more than 99%.

Sodium pyroantimonate

According to SMM's survey and statistics of major sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers in China, China's sodium pyroantimonate output in April 2024 was 3,780 tons, a slight decrease of 7.85% from 4,012 tons in March. After a sharp rebound last month, the output returned to below the 4,000-ton mark, but market participants generally said that the decline in April output was within the expected range, on the one hand, the 7.85% decline was within the normal range, on the other hand, the price of antimony rose suddenly and rapidly in April, and many manufacturers were caught off guard by purchasing raw materials, which may also affect future output.

In terms of detailed data, among the 11 SMM survey subjects, 2 manufacturers were in a state of shutdown or commissioning in April, and the production volume of other sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers was basically stable or slightly increased, but because 1 company suddenly stopped production for maintenance, the overall output was reduced. Manufacturers said that after entering May, terminal manufacturers are expected to maintain a relatively strong production. At present, sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers are still generally optimistic that the output of terminal photovoltaic manufacturers will show an upward trend in 2024, and the demand of the photovoltaic industry is expected to perform well. SMM expects that China's sodium pyroantimonate output will most likely remain at about 4,000 tons in May, and there may also be a slight increase.

Note: From July 2023, SMM will announce SMM's national sodium pyroantimonate production. Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the antimony industry, a total of 11 SMM sodium pyroantimonate manufacturers were surveyed, distributed in 5 provinces across the country, with a total sample production capacity of more than 75,000 tons and a total production capacity coverage rate of 99%.

Bismuth purifies

According to SMM's survey and statistics of bismuth manufacturers across the country, China's refined bismuth output in April 2024 was 1841.345 tons, with a slight decline. Compared with the national refined bismuth output of 1923.275 tons in March 2024, it decreased by 4.26% month-on-month. As the bismuth production in March rebounded sharply after the Spring Festival compared with February, market participants generally indicated that the slight decline in production in April was within the expected range. However, compared with the output of the same period in 2023, it is still a lot lower than the same period last year, which is also in line with the current tight situation of bismuth raw materials in the market. Judging from the detailed data, among the 24 survey respondents of SMM, 3 manufacturers saw a significant decline in output in April; However, only two manufacturers have seen a significant increase in production. This also made the overall monthly bismuth ingot production drop slightly compared with the previous month. However, many market participants said that the current bismuth raw material market is still obviously tight, so the shortage of raw materials is also one of the reasons why the output may continue to decline in the future. In addition, due to the stationing of the central environmental protection inspection team in Hunan in May, it will have an impact on the production of bismuth in Hunan to a certain extent. Therefore, SMM expects that the national refined bismuth production in May 2024 will continue to decline, and it will be difficult to return to above the 2,000-ton mark again in the short term.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has announced the national production of refined bismuth in SMM. Thanks to SMM's high coverage of the bismuth industry, a total of 24 SMM refined bismuth manufacturers were surveyed, distributed in 8 provinces across the country, with a total sample production capacity of more than 50,000 tons and a total production capacity coverage rate of more than 99%.

Titanium dioxide

SMM data shows that China's titanium dioxide output in April 2024 was 380,000 tons, a decrease of 2.5% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 12%.

In April, the output of titanium dioxide increased and decreased, affected by the market and environmental protection, individual enterprises and large factories in Shandong reduced the production of negative production, the output of titanium dioxide in Sichuan, Guangxi and Guangdong increased, the overall output of titanium dioxide decreased in April, and the output of titanium dioxide in China decreased by 2.5% month-on-month in April.

In April, titanium dioxide stabilized to weak adjustment operation, the company's order reception situation was less than expected, the inventory of some manufacturers increased, the recent titanium dioxide downstream market trading atmosphere is general, and downstream customer procurement is mostly just need to purchase. Affected by the high cost of titanium dioxide raw materials, the price of titanium dioxide fell slightly in April, the market adjustment range was about 500 yuan/ton, the transaction price was more chaotic, and SMM expects that the output of titanium dioxide in May will remain at 370,000 tons.

Ammonium paratungstate

According to SMM statistics, China's APT output in April was about 9,600 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month.

In April, affected by the entry of environmental protection inspectors at the end of March, the overall operating rate of APT smelters was limited and decreased steadily; In addition, due to the significant inversion of some smelters or the implementation of maintenance plans, APT output was not produced throughout the month, driving APT production to continue to decrease.

Entering May, the inversion of APT prices still exists, but SMM expects APT production to remain stable in May because most smelters can still guarantee the delivery of long-term orders and will not experience a sharp decline in production.

Lithium carbonate

In April, the domestic lithium carbonate output was about 52,893 tons, up 24% month-on-month and 80% year-on-year; From January to April, the cumulative output of lithium carbonate in China was 169,683 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35%. In terms of raw materials, the current profit situation of spodumene smelters has recovered due to the relatively stable long-term agreed price of overseas mines in the first and second quarters of this year. In addition to the manufacturers that had normal production in the early stage continued to ramp up production in April, some lithium salt plants that were under maintenance in February and March also resumed production in April. In addition, some lithium salt plants also received an increase in contract work during the month, resulting in an increase in spodumene smelter production in April. In terms of mica smelters, except for some smelters that did not start construction due to cost reasons in the early stage, after a small amount of resumption of production in April, the largest increase came from the sharp ramp-up of production by a leading integrated enterprise this month. In terms of salt lakes, although most of the enterprises increased their output this month due to factors such as warmer weather, the overall increase in lithium extraction from salt lakes was limited in April due to the maintenance of the leading enterprises in April for about half a month.

In May, China's lithium carbonate production is expected to reach 60,688 tonnes in May, an increase of 15% month-on-month, as the number of lithium salt enterprises that complete maintenance, resume production, and ramp-up continues to increase, although some bases of individual lithium salt companies are still being rotated for maintenance, and the central environmental protection inspection team in Jiangxi is stationed in Jiangxi to slow down the resumption of production of local small and medium-sized lithium salt enterprises. According to SMM's investigation with the local lithium salt plant in Jiangxi, the environmental protection inspection has not had a substantial impact on the production of local large-scale lithium salt enterprises, and the follow-up situation remains to be understood. The production efficiency of salt lake enterprises has also gradually increased with the rise of temperature, and the resumption of production after the overhaul of leading enterprises is superimposed, which is in line with the previous expectations. The follow-up situation still needs to pay attention to whether the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in May and June can meet expectations.

Lithium hydroxide

In April 2024, China's lithium hydroxide production reached 35,570 tons, up 30% month-on-month and 52% year-on-year. In terms of raw material types, the output of smelting lithium hydroxide reached 31,500 tons in March, up 32% month-on-month and 67% year-on-year. The output of causticizing lithium hydroxide reached 4,000 tons, up 16% month-on-month and down 10% year-on-year. Judging from the cumulative data, the cumulative output of lithium hydroxide in China from January to April 2024 reached 103,000 tons, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. From the perspective of the market as a whole, the output in April showed a rapid upward trend. On the one hand, due to the fact that the demand for downstream high-nickel ternary positive extremes is still increasing in April, and it coincides with the early stage of the Labor Day holiday, some cathode enterprises are limited in transportation during the Labor Day period, and stock up and purchase in advance, which lengthens the storage cycle to a certain extent and increases the recovery of lithium hydroxide. However, the overall inventory of smelting enterprises is still low, and when downstream demand grows, production scheduling will be increased to promote the upward trend of output. The second is that the recent OEM orders of overseas manufacturers in the department have increased significantly, and the new production lines of some manufacturers have completed the preliminary commissioning, which also promoted the upward movement of production scheduling in the month to a certain extent. SMM expects lithium hydroxide production to reach around 35,290 tonnes in May, down about 1% month-on-month and up 41% year-on-year.

Cobalt sulfate

In April, China's cobalt sulphate production was 5,129 gold tonnes, up 7% month-on-month and down 15% year-on-year. The main reasons for the increase in production this month are: although the overall market demand is declining, some smelters have been repaired or converted to production, resulting in a decrease in production; However, due to the support of the demand for tetracobalt delivery orders, the proportion of self-supply has increased, and the output has increased; Therefore, under the hedging of the two, the overall output showed a slight increase.

It is expected that in May, due to the large inventory of cobalt salt plants and social levels, and the impact of cost inversion, the output may decline. It is expected to be around 4,595 tonnes, down 10% QoQ and 27% YoY.

Cobalt tetroxide

In April, China's cobalt tetroxide output was 7,515 mt, up 5% month-on-month and 21% year-on-year. The main reasons for the increase in production this month are: on the one hand, due to the large number of orders signed in the early stage of the tetracobalt plant, in order to ensure the delivery of orders, the operating rate of the smelter is acceptable; On the other hand, due to the small inventory of tetracobalt enterprises, although the downstream demand weakened in late April, the enterprises still maintained normal operation. The combination leads to an increase in production.

In May, it is expected that there will be obvious signs of decline in downstream demand, with weaker orders for tetracobalt and maintenance plans for individual smelters, resulting in a reduction in production. It is expected to be around 6,515 tonnes, down 13% month-on-month and 8% year-on-year.

Ternary precursors

In April 2024, China's ternary precursor output was about 73,693 tons, a decrease of 4% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 38%. At present, from January to April, the cumulative output of China's ternary precursor was 288958 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 24.63%.

On the supply side, in April, precursor companies were limited by the high price of metal salts, and selectively received orders to determine production by sales. As a result, the supply of precursor companies fell short of expectations, and there was a slight reduction. On the demand side, most domestic cathode companies just need to stock up. The domestic demand performance is still good, and the 6 series materials of the head battery cell factory are still good. In terms of overseas demand, overseas orders of some precursor companies weakened steadily.

In May 2024, on the demand side, the cathode production schedule weakened and weakened overall. The long-term order segment slows down the pace of precursor procurement. In the bulk part, due to the high price of nickel salt, some small factories are limited by high production costs, and there is still a demand for external mining. However, the overall volume is small, and it is difficult to form a significant increase in demand. On the supply side, although the overseas orders of some enterprises may weaken, superimposed on the high price of raw materials, the supply is expected to be weak, and the precursor will maintain the rhythm of on-demand production scheduling.

It is expected that China's ternary precursor production will be 68,218 in May 2024, a decrease of 7%, an increase of 11% year-on-year.

Ternary materials

In April 2024, China's ternary material output was 65,240 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4%, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of 32% from January to April.

On the supply side, the production schedule of ternary materials maintained a month-on-month increase in April, but the growth rate slowed down. From the perspective of material proportion, the 5 series accounts for 22%, the 6 series accounts for 30%, and the 8/9 series accounts for 46%, and the 6 series materials are still encroaching on the market share of the 5 series. From the perspective of enterprise competition pattern, the increase of the head medium and high nickel enterprises is considerable, the second-tier material factories have achieved a slight recovery, and the market concentration has been further improved.

On the demand side, in the power market, in early April, some car companies started a price war again in order to avoid weakening orders, and the sales data of the passenger association in April fell slightly compared with March, which was better than in previous years. Cell scheduling and vehicle sales have come out of the trend of differentiation. From the perspective of battery cell ports, due to the low water level of battery cell inventory, the price of raw materials is stable, the operating rate of ternary cell factories has increased, and the demand for ternary materials has increased. In addition, there are also some manufacturers due to the previous large number of warehouses and the expected weakening of downstream vehicle sales, and the demand for materials has a weakening trend. In the digital and small power markets, demand was stable due to a slight fluctuation in lithium prices. The overall ternary demand trend is upward.

In May 2024, the output of ternary materials was 58,441 tons, a month-on-month decrease of about 10% and a year-on-year increase of 7%. The cumulative output from January to May was 188,817 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24%. In April, even in anticipation of price cuts and promotions, the seasonal decline in sales in April could not be reversed. Considering their own cell inventory and material inventory, battery factories have made certain adjustments to the order scheduling in May, and the scheduling linkage of ternary material enterprises has a tendency to weaken. And from the perspective of the ternary material factory itself, the downstream order reduction is superimposed on the demand for inventory reduction, so the output has declined. From the perspective of the proportion of material series, 5 series accounted for 25%; The 6 series accounted for 31%, and the 8 series/9 series accounted for 41%. The 8 series accounted for a large decline compared to the previous month. At present, the reduction is mainly concentrated in the material enterprises with good operating rates in the early stage of the first quarter, and the second- and third-tier manufacturers have not experienced a sharp decline. In addition, the production schedule of the consumption and small power market in May remained stable, which was different from the power market.

On the demand side, in the power market, there was a certain decline in the procurement demand for ternary materials in the battery cell factory in May, the reason is that the price of raw materials in the first quarter was stable, the sales of ternary models were more optimistic, and the battery cell factory had a backup behavior, but as the relevant car companies lowered the sales target in the second quarter, the battery cell digested the material inventory in the early stage, and the demand for ternary materials weakened.

Iron phosphate

In April, China's iron phosphate output was 137,600 mt, up 14% month-on-month and 89% year-on-year. In April, the overall operating rate of iron phosphate enterprises continued to improve, the market demand picked up, and the supply increased significantly. On the cost side, in April, due to the early stage of spring plowing and fertilizer preparation, the phosphoric acid inventory was small, and the maintenance of a phosphorus chemical enterprise took half a month, which comprehensively led to the tight supply of phosphoric acid, and the price of phosphoric acid rose significantly, driving the cost of iron phosphate to rise. On the demand side, the demand for downstream iron-lithium cathode factories and battery cell factories increased considerably in April, and the price war of new energy vehicles on the power side had a significant impact on vehicle sales data. However, because the downstream iron-lithium cathode plant has strict control over the cost of raw materials, the price of iron phosphate was only slightly raised around the cost in April, and the loss gap of iron phosphate still exists. Some iron phosphate companies refuse to accept low-price orders to reduce losses, resulting in some idle production capacity. In May, the iron-lithium market was driven by the demand of grid-connected nodes in the middle of the year at the energy storage end, and the demand at the power end remained stable, and the supply of iron phosphate is expected to continue to increase in May, with China's iron phosphate output expected to be 146,000 tons in May, an increase of 6% month-on-month and 49% year-on-year.

Lithium iron phosphate

In April, China's lithium iron phosphate production was 167,530 tons, up 22% month-on-month, 109% year-on-year, and 69% year-on-year. On the raw material side, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated in March, and the price of iron phosphate rose slightly. In April, the lithium carbonate discount and processing fee in the price formula of lithium iron phosphate of battery cell factories were relatively fixed, and there was no obvious adjustment, and the cost of lithium iron was still difficult to transmit downward. On the supply side, the operating rate of the leading iron-lithium enterprises increased significantly in April, and the orders of the second- and third-echelon iron-lithium cathode enterprises also increased and they were also actively exploring new customers, and the supply of iron-lithium increased significantly in April. On the demand side, as the price war of new energy vehicles continued in April, new models were launched, the trade-in policy stimulated, and the power market demand orders performed well. In May, China's lithium iron phosphate output is expected to be 182,960 tons, up 9% month-on-month and 64% year-on-year, driven by grid-connected demand in the middle of the year.

Lithium cobalt oxide

China's lithium cobalt oxide output in April is expected to be 7,090 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12%, and a year-on-year increase of 16%. On the cost side, the price of raw materials is in a downward trend, and the price of lithium cobalt oxide is declining. On the supply side, the leading lithium cobalt oxide manufacturers maintained a certain increase in April, and the second-tier manufacturers remained stable. In addition, due to the release of new production capacity, some manufacturers are expected to increase production schedules. On the demand side, the high-end digital lithium cobalt oxide market recovered, the head battery cell factory maintained a slight increase in delivery, and the demand for multiplier e-cigarettes declined significantly due to the tightening of overseas policies.

Lithium cobalt oxide production in May is expected to be 7,260 tons, up 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year. On the supply side, the market has come out of the divergence trend, and the leading manufacturers in the high-voltage market have benefited from the recent release of new products, and the demand has increased steadily and slightly. However, in the multiplier market, the demand for e-cigarettes is still poor, resulting in a downward trend in the production schedule of small and medium-sized manufacturers, and some manufacturers have turned to other segments such as drones to find orders, which has also led to a fierce price war in the multiplier market.

Lithium manganese oxide

In April 2024, China's lithium manganese oxide production was 11,856 tons, up 63.8% month-on-month and 74.3% year-on-year. The reasons are: 1. The industry has entered the traditional peak season, the downstream demand has a positive trend, the low-end digital market has maintained a certain growth rate and stable development, and the sales of two-wheeled vehicles have risen compared with March, which has driven the production capacity of the vast majority of lithium manganese oxide enterprises to be further released, and the output has risen compared with March. Second, the overall market prospect of lithium manganese oxide is relatively clear, and the downstream flow direction is mostly daily necessities, so although the market involution situation is serious and the cost competition is fierce, most lithium manganese oxide enterprises still have the competitive momentum and maintain normal production. It is expected to enter May, with the end of the stocking situation, superimposed on the instability of the spot price of lithium carbonate at the raw material end, the demand growth rate of downstream battery cell factories will gradually slow down, lithium manganese oxide enterprises will maintain the sales and production mode, new orders will be reduced compared with April, and the output will not maintain the original growth rate to continue to rise, and it is estimated that the output of lithium manganese oxide will reach about 14,227 tons, an increase of 20.0% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 5.3%.

April 2024 production volume of metal products

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Illustrate:

1. The value with * is the correction value, and the value in italics is the predicted value.

2. The output of nickel pig iron refers to the data after the physical quantity is converted into metal.

Research methodology

1. Research methods

SMM output research is conducted by professional analysts by telephone, field research and other methods, regularly monthly tracking of China's metal production enterprises, and based on this, the issuance of China's metal output report.

During the research process, the basic coverage ratio of the sample was ensured and continuously expanded; At the same time, considering the detailed factors such as production capacity scale, geographical distribution, and enterprise nature, the sample is reasonably selected and allocated, so that each sub-item data is representative.

Production data includes the previous month's output (preliminary value), the previous month's output (revised value), and the production forecast value of the current month's production. In general, SMM makes less corrections to the yield, i.e. correction value = initial value, but still retains the possibility of correction.

Before the 10th of each month, it will be released through official channels such as the official website of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (www.smm.cn), WeChat subscription account (Today's Nonferrous Metals), and mobile phone station (m.smm.cn).

2. Sample introduction