SMM, May 10: The supply of overseas manganese ore is tightening, and the mine price continues to rise, boosting today's manganese and silicon main company to continue to rise, brushing a new high of 8,800 yuan/ton since June 13, 2022, up 5.80% as of the day, and floating red for 19 consecutive days; Since May, the largest increase in the five days ending May 10 is about 11.20%.
Manganese silicon main connection trend:
>> Click to view SMM market dashboard
Spot prices
According to the SMM spot price, the average spot price of silicon-manganese 6517 (acceptance) in Inner Mongolia was also red today, up 3.27% from the previous day, rising for five consecutive days. On May 10, SMM survey showed that the price of silicon-manganese rose strongly this week, mainly driven by cost. On the supply side, Ningxia manufacturers have plans to resume production, and Guangxi and Yunnan regions are approaching the wet season, and manufacturers also have plans to resume production, and the specific situation will be followed up. >> Click here for details
Changes in the average spot price of silicon-manganese 6517 (acceptance) in Inner Mongolia:
》View SMM manganese spot quotes
》Order to view historical SMM metal spot price movements
Fundamentals
Supply side: In terms of output, according to SMM data, the total output of silicon-manganese alloy in mainland China in April was 778,000 tons, down 3.77% month-on-month and 13.15% year-on-year. On the whole, the operating rate in some areas decreased, coupled with the fewer natural days in April, the output of silicon-manganese turned to shrink, and the total output of silicon-manganese in April decreased.
Entering May, enterprises in cost-advantaged areas such as Inner Mongolia started to maintain. However, considering the strengthening of silicon-manganese cost support, the growth of silicon-manganese production is still under pressure. Therefore, the overall silicon-manganese production in May is expected to fluctuate little, or about 773,000 tons.
In terms of manganese ore, since late April, the price of manganese ore in various ports in the mainland has continued to rise, and the mainstream ore price has increased by about 5 yuan/ton, and some Australian blocks have been quoted at a higher price. Manganese ore traders are reluctant to sell, and the port is closed and does not quote. Affected by alloy prices, downstream alloy factories still maintain a low operating rate, and the transaction follow-up is relatively slow. Combined with market feedback, the sentiment of manganese ore price increase will continue to ferment in the short term.
South32's latest quarterly report said that due to the impact of Tropical Cyclone Megan, Australia's saleable production of manganese ore fell by 13% in the nine months from July 2023 to March 2024, and based on preliminary progress estimates, terminal operations and export sales are expected to resume in the third quarter of financial 2025 (Q1 2025), while alternative shipping options are being evaluated to mitigate the impact of terminal outages.
The price trend of manganese ore in major domestic manganese ore ports:
》Click to view the SMM manganese industry chain database
Demand side: According to SMM's latest survey, the current spot market shipments are less, waiting for the steel recruitment situation, manufacturers continue to sell at high prices.
SMM outlook
On the whole, the price of manganese ore at the supply end of the fundamental silicon manganese continues to rise, giving strong support to the main manganese and silicon companies in terms of raw material costs, and the future price may continue to be high in the short term, so it is necessary to pay attention to the supply of overseas manganese ore.