Pictured is Marcos Jr
Marcos Jr.'s government played with fire and set himself on fire, and was caught red-handed for lying. Manila is in a hurry and threatens to expel Chinese diplomats, how should China retaliate?
Marcos Jr. pretended to be stupid and denied the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines, but the Chinese side threw out ironclad evidence. According to the audio recording, in a phone call with Chinese diplomats on January 3 this year, Vice Admiral Carlos, commander of the Philippine Western Command in charge of South China Sea affairs, personally promised to agree to use a "new model" to deal with the Ren'ai Jiao issue.
The so-called "new model" means that the Philippines only delivers food, water and humanitarian supplies to beached warships, and requires two days' notice to China. More importantly, this is by no means an unauthorized action of the Philippine local forces, on the contrary, it is also recognized by the top leaders, including the Philippine defense secretary.
Pictured is Duterte
As soon as this news came out, it immediately caused an uproar. Marcos Jr. has been trying to discredit the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines, blaming it on Duterte, accusing it of being a "secret deal" with China during Duterte's tenure. But the evidence presented by the Chinese side shows that the Marcos Jr. government is lying.
As soon as the ironclad evidence came out, Marcos Jr.'s "political show" could not be performed, which had at least two impacts on the Marcos Jr. government:
From the perspective of domestic politics, Marcos Jr. has always wanted to use the South China Sea issue to stir up nationalist sentiment among the Filipino people in order to suppress Duterte and consolidate his power base. But now anyone with a discerning eye can see that Marcos Jr. is just engaged in political struggle in the name of "safeguarding national sovereignty."
From the perspective of international influence, the Marcos Jr. government has always liked to win the sympathy of other countries by pretending to be weak, but with the evidence of the Philippines' backsliding has been exposed, neighboring countries have a clear understanding of who is driving the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea.
The picture shows the US missile destroyer USS Halsey
In the face of irrefutable evidence, the Philippines is clearly angry. An adviser to the Philippine National Security Council named Arnold went so far as to call for the expulsion of Chinese diplomats on charges of "spreading false news." Not only that, on 10 May, the US guided missile destroyer USS Halsey illegally intruded into China's territorial waters in the Xisha Paracels without the approval of the Chinese government. How should China respond to the Philippines' collusion with the United States and even Japan?
First of all, it must be said that China has in fact defeated the Philippines' vain attempt to reinforce the illegal beached warship and change the status quo at Second Thomas Shoal. If the Philippines continues to provoke, China will inevitably adopt stricter maritime rights protection measures. The removal of the Philippine ship from the water cannon is not an armed attack and will not trigger the Philippine-US mutual defense treaty, and the Chinese side can continue to use it. Since the Philippines does not recognize the "gentlemen's agreement", its daily supplies will not be approved by the Chinese side, and we can even make life on an illegally beached warship unsustainable.
Second, we can use a combination of economic instruments to increase the domestic pressure on the Philippine government. Australia's experience has shown that economic instruments can make a difference. Only by making the other side feel the real cost of provoking China can the other side realize the importance of improving relations with China.
Pictured are Marcos and Biden
Third, in the struggle with the Philippines, the war of public opinion must not only be fought, but also fought well. The complexity of the situation in the South China Sea lies in the fact that the Philippines is not the only claimant country, and we cannot allow the Philippines to turn black and white upside down and instigate other claimants to besiege us.
Facts have proved that the attitude of neighboring countries today is more favorable to us than it was in 2016 when the Philippines concocted the "South China Sea Arbitration". First, neighboring countries have seen China's diplomatic efforts, and the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines is the best illustration of this. The second reason is that the Philippines' practice of uniting countries outside the region to carry out security cooperation is unpopular. This runs counter to the principles of regional neutrality and regional strategic autonomy in ASEAN.
Neighboring countries have repeatedly called for the South China Sea not to become a second Ukraine and to avoid war in Asia. On the basis of resolutely cracking down on the provocative acts of the Philippines, it is necessary for us to maintain good relations with other claimant countries and ASEAN countries, to win support to the greatest extent, and to maintain the stability of the surrounding environment.