Strategic approach – France will become China's long-term "ally" in the West

It is not difficult for friends who pay attention to international current affairs to find that Sino-French relations have warmed up rapidly in the past two years, Macron's visit to China last year, and his recent return visit has been greatly renewed, and the courtesy standards during the exchange of visits are also very high. The results achieved – just reported – are fruitful.

This can be said to be rare in the current situation. After all, in the past few years, China's relations with the West have visibly cooled, and the confrontation between the East and the West has intensified. France, as a mainstream power in the West, has gone against the grain all the way, becoming more and more hot with China.

Why is this happening? Of course, there are some economic factors, but this is not mainstream. It's mainly political. Politically, China and France are not just fornicating based on short-term needs, but long-term strategic interests at the macro level. It can be said unceremoniously that in the foreseeable future, France will become China's strategic "ally" in the West for a long time.

Why is there such a major shift in Sino-French relations? This is inseparable from the changes in the international landscape.

As the international situation has developed to this day, it has become clear to all that the existing international order is collapsing and a new order is being born. For any major country, how to maximize its interests in the new order is something that must be considered and actively pursued at the moment - after all, this will determine the fate of its own country in the next 100 years!

The same is true for France. As an old capitalist power and the former hegemon of the European continent, France is undoubtedly ambitious. However, the heavy losses in the two world wars made France a second-rate among the great powers, and it was manipulated by the United States. However, unlike other American brothers, France is, after all, the five permanent members of the Security Council, has a relatively independent military industrial system, and its cultural influence is second only to Britain and the United States. This time, the great changes in a century have made it obvious that the hegemonic system of US imperialism cannot hold on. Under such circumstances, of course, France also wants to take advantage of the situation to rise to the table in the future global pattern and obtain the status of a first-class world-class power such as China, the United States and Russia.

To achieve this goal, what France needs to do now is to achieve European independence.

Europe itself has the strength to compete with China, the United States, and Russia. It also tried to become a global pole through the creation of the European Union and the euro. Unfortunately, Europe is too deeply restrained by the United States, and it is divided internally, so not only has it not been integrated smoothly for decades, but it has been harvested by the United States through the Russian-Ukrainian war, and now it is going to be used as cannon fodder by the United States, trying to put it on the Ukrainian war and consume it with Russia - the United States is now in decline in national strength, and it is deeply trapped in the three major fronts of East Asia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, and it is fundamentally lacking in skills, so it is of course best to use Europe to top.

However, this idea of the United States has also given France a chance.

The United States wants to make Europe top. It is also that France can take this opportunity to rally EU countries to go to Ukraine in the name of resisting Russia, and in this process, it can rely on its own leadership position, supplemented by an independent military system, to successfully squeeze out the influence of the United States in Europe - after all, at the beginning of the war, Europe's cohesion in a wartime state will naturally be greatly enhanced, France just took this opportunity to suppress the internal rebellion, and the United States wants to let Europe contribute, and it can't make trouble at this juncture.

This is France's historic opportunity! France itself has limited strength, and it will certainly not be able to become a pole. But Europe can. Europe is the core of the dual relationship between France and Germany, and although Germany is economically strong, it is deeply constrained by the United States and has no autonomy at all. Moreover, Germany's political and military affairs are scum, and even the proud economy has been greatly damaged in this round of the Russian-Ukrainian war because of the cut off of energy channels. So if Europe wants to integrate and fight a war now, the leader can only be France. If France resists Russia at the same time, and at the same time takes the opportunity to eliminate the internal American forces and complete the independence of Europe, then the new European Union led by France will be nirvana in the flames of war and become a new first-class geopolitical power after the war, and France, the European leader, will also rely on Europe to become a major power with world-class influence comparable to China, Russia and the United States.

Of course, there are three risk points in this process:

First of all: will the United States let France clean up?

In fact, this is not due to the United States. Now that Ukraine's defeat is a foregone conclusion, if the United States is indifferent and sits idly by and watches the Russian army take Ukraine, it will not only mean a major strategic defeat and loss of interests for the United States, but Europe can only make peace with Russia on the condition of leaving the United States in panic - when the United States cannot protect Europe, it will lose its ability and reason to lead Europe.

This means that the most important European fundamentals of the US imperialist hegemonic system will fall into the hands of Russia. And that's not all. After dealing with Europe, Putin will inevitably move southward to destroy Israel and eliminate the hegemony of US imperialism in the Middle East - US imperialism does not even dare to provoke Iran in the Middle East now, and when the time comes, how will the whole army of Russia attack? And on the side of East Asia, China will also take advantage of the situation at that time to wipe out all the forces of US imperialism in the Western Pacific!

So the US imperialists cannot withstand the price of Ukraine's defeat. It must stand up to Russia. And to resist Russia, either on your own, or on Europe, or on your own command of Europe.

On its own - that means that the United States will be deeply involved in the battlefield of Eastern Europe, and then China and Iran will inevitably increase their weight, and the hegemonic system of US imperialism in the Middle East and East Asia will collapse faster. The hegemony of the Middle East and East Asia collapsed, and in the end, US imperialism could not keep Europe.

Command Europe or lead Europe - the small Eastern European countries of Poland and the three Baltic countries may do their bidding, but France and Germany will at most hide behind and wave their flags and shout, and in fact they will certainly not be able to do anything. And if France and Germany are not good, there is no difference between these little Eastern European minions and the United States itself.

Therefore, the most scientific choice to resist Russia is to let France and Germany, especially France, take Europe with them. But if France is to be moved, it must acquiesce in France's purge of American influence in the course of the war – that is, acquiesce in the autonomy of Europe.

So the US imperialists actually have no choice. And it won't even drag on for too long - the current Ukraine is no longer able to hold on to military aid alone. When Russia finishes fighting Ukraine, the daylily will be cold.

This is the confidence of France to dance so happily now - it knows that the United States is now running out of skills, and no matter what it chooses, it will not be able to hold itself back in the end.

As for the second risk, if you go on your own, will you be able to withstand Russia?

The answer to this is actually very simple: without the United States, the French army will certainly not be able to withstand the Russian army - even the European coalition forces will not be able to withstand it.

Then this one is very strange: since you can't stand it, why do you still have this head?

The reason is simple, it doesn't need to be a true top. For Russia, its appetite is actually not so big - after all, the current Russia is not the Soviet Union, let alone eat the whole of Europe, and now just digesting Ukraine is enough for it to toss. For Russia, even the most ideal outcome would be to eat Ukraine and then gradually restore its traditional influence over the former Soviet satellite states in Eastern Europe – that is, to completely destroy the results of NATO's geopolitical advance against Russia after the end of the Cold War. As for Central and Western Europe, Russia will not be able to eat it in the short term, as long as they can get rid of US control, dissolve NATO, and not pose a threat to themselves.

If we understand the boundaries of Russia's capabilities, we can find that the strategic interests of France and Russia are actually identical. Eastern Europe is not the old European sphere of influence, although they have all joined the European Union, but as far as the current situation is concerned, these Eastern European countries, except for Hungary, are basically dependent on the United States and do not have Germany - in other words, this is not the Franco-German basic plate in the first place. Therefore, ceding Eastern Europe other than Hungary, as long as Russia can stop there, there is actually no real loss for the old Europe, led by France and Germany. In return, Europe and Russia will make peace or even restart economic cooperation, and Europe will not only regain access to Russia's cheap energy and minerals, but also reopen the Russian market.

Of course, there is a question here - what if the Russian army does not stop in Ukraine or even Eastern Europe, but wants to play a big game and continue to the west? After all, without the United States, Europe is not a military opponent of Russia.

That's when China's value comes into play. Now the general valve of the Russian military system is actually in China's hands, as long as China does not allow Russia to continue to push westward, then the Russian army will not be able to push it if it wants to.

This is the reason why France has jumped away from the Western camp and moved so close to China. France can't stop the Russian army, but China can, as long as China is the guarantor, France can rest assured and boldly drive the United States to pursue European independence.

Will China be a guarantor?

Yes! Because Russia's unification of Europe is not only a disaster for the hegemonic system of US imperialism, but also a geopolitical disaster for China. If Russia is really allowed to integrate Europe, the United States can retreat to the Western Hemisphere to protect itself, and China will face the overwhelming power of Mount Tai - the northern nightmare of the Central Plains Dynasty for thousands of years. The pressure from the Soviet Union faced by New China during the Cold War will return to reality.

Of course, China will not allow this pattern to emerge - it is in China's interest for Russia to interfere with the United States in Ukraine, and it is in China's interest to destroy the hegemony of US imperialism in Europe, but it is absolutely not in China's interest to integrate Europe. After breaking the hegemony of US imperialism in the Middle East, if Russia is satisfied, it is naturally easy to say; If you want to take advantage of the situation to threaten Central and Western Europe, then China will definitely be on the side of France and turn off the general valve of the Russian military system!

This is the fundamental logic of the rapid approach between China and France in the past two years. China and France not only have a high degree of convergence of interests in destroying US imperialism in Europe; At the same time, there is a high degree of convergence of interests in the destruction of the new European pattern after the European hegemony of US imperialism.

The common interests of China and France are not only reflected in the great changes of the past century; It is also reflected in the long-term historical process after the completion of the great changes and the determination of the European pattern.

With the collapse of US imperialist hegemony in Europe and the strategic reconciliation between Europe and Russia, then EU-Russia economic cooperation will inevitably resume in all directions – even closer than before.

This is unavoidable. After all, the economies of Europe and Russia are highly complementary, and cooperation is in the common interests of both sides.

However, one consequence of deepening economic cooperation is how to deal with political relations. According to conventional logic, of course, political and cultural exchanges and integration will also intensify, and eventually achieve European and Russian integration. And in this process of integration, given Russia's huge advantages in geopolitical strength, political and military influence, it is natural that Russia will unify the European continent in the end.

This is, of course, expected from Russia.

But this is clearly not in the interests of traditional powers such as France and Germany. They are engaged in European integration because they want to take themselves as the core; But if Russia joins, it will definitely be Russia that will play the leading role in the end. However, EU-Russian economic cooperation is in line with their own interests. In this way, politics and economics will diverge!

So how to solve it? There is only one solution, the economic aspect of European and Russian cooperation, and the political aspect of separation. To achieve this, Europe – at least within Central and Western Europe – must be highly integrated politically, economically, culturally, and militarily in order to stand up to Russia.

But this one is too hard. European integration has been carried out for decades, and as a result, the EU is now about to fall apart -- of course, there is the obstruction of the United States, but the natural division within Europe is the fundamental reason. If the great changes end and the EU-Russia economic cooperation resumes, even if the old Europe can barely maintain its independence at the beginning, with the passage of time, Russia, which is stronger geographically and more political, economic, and culturally integrated, will inevitably gain an advantage and gradually swallow up Central and Western Europe.

Therefore, strong external forces must be introduced. And this external force can only be China. China has a huge consumer market with strong economic strength, and can strengthen the strength of traditional Europe through China-EU cooperation; China also has strong political and military power, and is able to counterbalance Russia as strongly as the United States.

Unlike the United States, although geopolitical relations dictate that China must maintain European independence to counterbalance Russia; However, geopolitical relations also determine that it is impossible for China to directly station troops to control Europe like the United States, so if China wants to achieve the strategic goal of preserving Europe and preventing Russia from becoming bigger, it must do its best to support Europe's strength.

This is the common strategic interest of China and the EU. And specifically to France. For Europe to be strong and to be able to compete with Russia, it must be highly integrated internally. And to achieve this, there must be a strong core. And only Germany and France are qualified to act as the core.

Compared with Germany, France has three major advantages:

First, although the German economy is stronger, it has been greatly damaged this time; Moreover, Germany has been controlled by the United States for many years, and the political and cultural aspects are too rotten, and it will take a long process to recover, while France does not have these troubles.

Second, the German economy is too dependent on cheap Russian energy, and after the resumption of economic cooperation between Europe and Russia in the future, Russia will certainly use this to politically blackmail Germany, and Germany lacks the means to counteract. France is much better comparatively.

Third, and the biggest structural bug, is that Germany is located in Central Europe, too close to Russia. After the disintegration of US imperialist hegemony in Europe, if Russia restores its traditional sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, then Germany will be on the front line of Europe against Russia - such a geopolitical pattern determines that Germany is naturally unsuitable to act as the core of an independent new Europe. France is located in Western Europe, with Germany in the east, and belongs to the strategic rear, so it is certainly more suitable to act as a European leader than Germany.

These three advantages determine the main core of Europe's future, and France is certainly more suitable than Germany. From China's point of view, since it wants Europe to maintain its autonomy and use it to balance Russia, it is naturally more inclined to support France.

This is the strategic basis for a historic turning point in Sino-French relations. Whether it is to overthrow the hegemony of US imperialism or to balance Russia, it is necessary for France to re-emerge; And if France wants to sit back at the table and sit firmly, it is highly dependent on China's support. In this case, the second power of the Western camp of the United States and the largest strategic competitor of the Western camp of the United States have come together in such a wonderful way, and this time the approach is historic, and France will also become China's strongest strategic "ally" in the Western world for a long period of time in the future. And the span of this historical period is likely to be the entire 21st century!

That was reached with the Sino-French strategic cooperation. What will happen to the U.S.-China game in the future? Especially the most realistic, in the two battlefields of Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East, what kind of impact will the tacit cooperation between China and France have on the current situation? Pay attention to the WeChat public account: Yunshi, Yunshijun will continue to interpret for you in the next section.

This article is the 2419 section of the Marble Overseas Wind and Cloud series. If you like readers, please use WeChat to search for the official account: Yunshi, and continue to watch all the original articles of Yunshi's overseas series.