Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders' meeting, which is concerned by global investors, was held in Omaha, Nebraska, and Sina Finance had a conversation with Orina Chang, executive director of Oppenheimer Fund, at the shareholders' meeting.
Orina Chang told Sina Finance: "Warren Buffett's value investing philosophy has profoundly influenced me. She believes that the most important point of value investing is that "if the investment is not right, what assets in the company can protect me from losing so much money." I walked around again today, and when I saw every company he invested in, I suddenly found that the things he invested in were all things that he might use in his own life, and they were closely related to his own life, and then each company was running very well, very efficiently, and I felt quite deeply. ”
She believes that as an ordinary investor, when making an investment, first set the length of investment, and then find out the demarcation object you want to invest, whether it is stocks or bonds, and whether the length of investment time can withstand a more risky investment.
She thinks that as a non-professional, it is a bit difficult to pick stocks, because "after stock selection, you have to constantly observe the company, whether it is running in its original direction, if not, then you have to sell it quickly, so it is a bit unrealistic." ”
She suggested that ordinary investors invest to find a definite general direction, "such as artificial intelligence and new energy, buy a related index, and then just put it away, and you don't have to worry about which company is not doing well." ”
Guest's golden sentence:
Warren Buffett's investment philosophy has helped me the most with the idea of a margin of safety, when we make a wrong investment decision, we can minimize our losses.
For people like me, who invest in technology and growth companies, I tend to think of R&D as an intangible asset.
The first one is artificial intelligence, machine learning, which I think will bring huge changes to humanity in the future, which we can't imagine. The second one I think is green energy, and these two are the ones I will invest in the most.
For the average investor, it's hard to know when a company starts to skyrocket. So I think the best way is to buy a basket of stocks, grasp the direction, set the time, set the risk, I think this is the best way to invest.
以下是采访Orina Chang实录
Sina Finance: Hello Mr. Zhang, thank you very much for accepting the interview with Sina Finance, this is the first time you have participated in Warren Buffett's shareholders' meeting?
Orina Chang：我第一次来。
Sina Finance: This is your first time in Omaha, right?
Orina Chang: Yes, this is the first time I've been here.
Sina Finance: Which of Warren Buffett's investment ideas do you most recognize?
Orina Chang: He's an alumnus of mine, and we're both from Columbia Business School. I think the most important thing about his investment philosophy is value investment, and the most important point of value investment is that if the investment is not right, what assets in the company can protect me and let me not lose so much money, which is his most important point. I walked around again today, and when I saw every company he invested in, I suddenly found that the things he invested in were all things that he might use in his own life, and they were closely related to his own life, and then each company was running very well, very efficiently, and I felt quite deeply.
Sina Finance: As an expert in the field of asset management, you have very rich and successful investment experience in private equity, hedge funds, real estate, etc. Do you think Warren Buffett's investment philosophy has influenced or helped you personally?
Orina Chang: I think the biggest help is of course a concept called margin of safety, when we make a wrong investment decision, can we minimize our losses, this is the most important concept for me to learn about investing.
So we pay a lot of attention to the book value in the report, which is how much tangible assets a company has, and then deduct all its liabilities, if the company is going to be auctioned today, how much can it sell for, or if I am going to build an exact company now, then what is my replacement cost, I think this is the most basic introductory concept for me.
But I'm a person who invests in technology companies, and one of the differences from Warren Buffett is that he never invests in technology, he doesn't invest in technology because the book value of technology companies is very low, and it uses all the money to do R&D, do research, and then hire a lot of scientific researchers, so all technology companies have no book value. Unlike traditional companies, its book value is very high, it has plant, equipment, real estate and many other different things, so in Buffett's view, a technology company in a situation without book value, is a very dangerous investment, if the investment is wrong, you can't sell things, once the personnel are dissolved, the company will not have any property that you can get back the cost of the previous wrong investment. But for me, for people who do technology, in fact, R&D is an intangible asset, although it can't be written on your financial report, written on your book slogan, but it is indeed an intangible asset, I think in statistics, R&D should not be eliminated as a simple expense, I think this is a big impact on me. But going a little deeper, looking at all these financial reports, for someone like me who invests in technology, I invest in developing companies, I'm more inclined to think of R&D as an intangible asset, even though it's not in the statistical account, but it's an intangible asset for me.
Sina Finance: Thank you Mr. Zhang for sharing. So for this year's Warren Buffett shareholder meeting, what are the topics in the investment field that you are most concerned about?
Orina Chang: I hope he can talk about how he sees AI, the growth of the Internet over the last 10 years, because I think he avoids the whole Internet problem. As I just said, he has no book value, so he has no way to do the analysis of book value, which is the most important future orientation to change the future of human life, as well as all industries, all industries, all productivity. I especially hope that he will be able to say a little bit tomorrow.
Sina Finance: I hope Warren Buffett will talk about some topics in the field of artificial intelligence tomorrow, so that we can understand his thoughts in depth. As an expert in the field of asset management, can you share with us how you have developed investment strategies to help your clients maximize the growth of their wealth while minimizing risk, and how do you balance risk management and wealth growth?
Orina Chang: I used to do institutional management, now I do personal management, institutional management and personal management is very different is when the money managed by the organization will come in, when it will go out, you are difficult to make predictions, you don't know how much money I may make this year, how much I may have to spend, how much money can be left in the end, this is more difficult for you to predict, so in the case that you have no way to predict how long the money can be invested, the best way to manage risk is to reduce your risk.
But it's a two-sided thing, and when you lower your volatility, your returns will also decrease. This is an important concept. A lot of people say, I don't have a risk, I can actually make a lot of money, in fact there is no such thing.
But for personal finance, the biggest advantage is that I can set how long I can invest this money, I can invest for 1 year, I can invest for 5 years, I can invest for 10 years, I can set it myself, because it is personal financial management. Timing is one of the best ways to manage risk.
I think there are fewer people who know this, the longer your time point is pulled, the lower your risk will be, even if you invest in exactly the same thing, let's say you invest in U.S. stocks, I invest for a year, the worst case and the best case may be from -40% to 60%. But if I invest for 10 years, if I stretch the range, if I stretch the time, the worst case scenario is maybe -1%, and the best case is maybe 15%-20%. Therefore, when I can put this money for 10 years, then I will put all of it in the US stocks, and I am not afraid that I will lose money.
But if I can only put it for 1 year, then I will be worried. So I think this is the most ineffective way to control risk in your ROI, which is to first determine how long the money can be invested, and then when you pull out the time point, after it is determined, you can go to the range of losses that you can personally bear.
Sina Finance: What Mr. Zhang said is very reasonable, this kind of long-term value investment, long-term holding, is also very in line with Warren Buffett's investment philosophy. But today, with the Fed delaying a rate cut, with this very high interest rate, very high inflation, very weak economic growth, what do you see as investment opportunities? What sectors are you more optimistic about, and where will you put your money in the future?
Orina Chang: I think the first point is to look at the length of time, assuming that we have unlimited time like Warren Buffett, we never need to worry about you siphoning off the money, in this case, for me this macro factor is not particularly important, because as long as the company does well, no matter what your macro fundamentals are, it can actually bring unlimited benefits, I think if the time is long enough, the two most important issues, the first is artificial intelligence, Machine learning, I think it's going to make a huge difference to humanity in the future, something we can't imagine. The second one I think is green energy, which I am most likely to invest in, but it seems to be a little different from Warren Buffett.
Sina Finance: Well, thank you Mr. Zhang for sharing, what you said is very reasonable, artificial intelligence and new energy are very hot investment topics in recent years, according to your understanding of the current economic situation and the prediction of the future economic development trend, what kind of advice do you have for the majority of investors? Just now you mentioned that you pay more attention to artificial intelligence and new energy, do you have any other suggestions?
Orina Chang: I think if you are not a professional investor and the general public wants to invest, I think the first thing is to set the time point first, and then find out the demarcation you want to invest in, whether it is stocks or bonds, and whether your time length is enough to bear a more risky investment. If you can, assuming it's a 10-year investment, you can invest 100% of it in stocks, no problem.
As a non-professional, I find it a bit difficult to pick stocks, because after you choose stocks, you have to constantly observe the company, whether it is running in the same direction, if not, then you have to sell it quickly, so I think this is a bit unrealistic.
If it is for ordinary people, I think you can find a general direction, artificial intelligence is a general direction, I think this is certain, for example, new energy is a general direction, this everyone can agree. Actually, it's hard for us to say, I don't know very well, so it's better to buy a big market, buy it as a whole index, and just leave it alone, and you don't have to worry about which company is doing badly.
For example, I just watched Nvidia, at that time, it was a very small company, and then the people who played games especially liked to use his chips, and he did a really good job, but except for the small group of people who played games, no one else paid attention to this company at all. Then when I go to talk to people, I say: Nvidia is really doing a good job. Nobody paid any attention to me, but all of a sudden, since last year, it skyrocketed.
So I think it's hard for an average investor to know when a company starts to skyrocket. So I think the best way is to buy a basket of stocks, grasp the direction, set the time, set the risk, I think this is the best way to invest.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang, the company you just mentioned, due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence, he has a very large demand for computing power. A chip manufacturing company like Nvidia, whose stock has increased many times in the past year, do you think Nvidia's stock is suitable for long-term holding?
Orina Chang: I think if you're a professional looking at a company, we're going to keep paying attention to the company, we're going to keep looking at its financial reports, we're going to keep looking at its management, and we're going to see if they're constantly moving in the right direction.
If you look at it from my current point of view, of course I think it's a very good company, it's worth holding, but for the general public, I don't think you can listen to his quarterly report every quarter, for example, Intel can go from a very good company to a completely uncompetitive company like today, of course a long time in between, but if you choose Intel, then you will lose a lot, so I think it's better to try to avoid investing in a company's stock, a stock。 Unless you're doing it professionally, then all your mind is spent on that.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang, you wear many hats, you are an adjunct professor in the university, and you have also set up a scholarship named after you at Columbia University, which shows that education investment is a very important part of your heart. Warren Buffett, who has also been an adjunct professor at Nebraska's business school for many years, once said that he hoped that people would not remember him because of his wealth, and he wanted people to remember him because of his status as a teacher. What are your thoughts and thoughts on Warren Buffett's view?
Orina Chang: Of course I can't compare with Warren Buffett, and then I can't have the same wealth as him, so people in the world don't remember me because I have wealth, I hope to help everyone I can help within the scope of what I can achieve, so maybe the human collective will not remember me, but maybe the people I help, I will leave a good contribution in their lives, and this is good for me. The students I teach, or the people who received my scholarships, or whoever I did, who were helped by my career or what I did, and who made their lives better, I would be happy if they could remember that.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang is really a very generous and kind-hearted person, and he must learn from you. You graduated from Columbia University, an Ivy League school, you are a top student in your studies, and then in your work, you are now managing a business, and you are a very successful manager of a business, how do you feel that you define your life position and life value?
Orina Chang: First of all, I think the first thing is school, in a person's life, studying should be the easiest and easiest thing to control, because all the things he has to take are in the textbooks, if you are willing to spend time and effort, you can learn it well, you can do it well. Schooling is one of the best ways to grow socio-economically, so I hope that everyone can enrich themselves in school. In addition to studying, I think it will be difficult for him to control his future life, because life is full of all kinds of changes, and my request to myself is that no matter what kind of changes we encounter in life, we can solve it very calmly, and then the solution can benefit everyone. I think that if a person can make everyone around him live well, he can get a lot of satisfaction himself.
Sina Finance: Altruism, there is a very altruistic mentality. What factors do you think have contributed to your academic and career successes?
Orina Chang: I think academic achievement should be quite simple, everyone can get it, as long as you work hard, you can get it. As for my career, I think the bigger factor is that I am not afraid of change, and when I feel that I don't like something, I am not afraid to change it. The second is that if something happens, I don't panic easily, and I don't have any worries or fears, I just think I can just do it and solve it. I think this should be a big factor in the success.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang said that the harder you work, the luckier you are, and then there is no internal friction, that is, you have to focus on your goals, and then bravely accept the challenge.
Orina Chang: yes, and then I think that if you are motivated to do something, you can do it well, but if you only think about yourself, it can be a little bit more difficult. If everyone benefits each other, everyone will work together.
Sina Finance: Mr. Zhang, if you have the opportunity to ask Warren Buffett questions tomorrow, what questions would you most like to ask Buffett?
Orina Chang: If I could ask him, I would ask him, if I changed the financial report to R&D is not an intent, not an expense, but an intentible asset, what would you think about these technology industries, and how would you quantify it in the financial report, so that people can invest in technology companies with the concept of value investing, this structure.
Sina Finance: Well, okay, thank you, Mr. Zhang. Thank you again for accepting the interview with Sina Finance, and I hope to see you again at tomorrow's shareholders' meeting and the Chinese and American investor reception hosted by Sina Finance, thank you.
(Sina Finance correspondent in the United States, Bai Xue, Amanda, Guo Yijie, Monica, from Omaha, USA)
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