原文作者：Asher zhang
Original source: Bitpush
This round of bull market is very different from the previous bull market, the previous bull market often has rotation, and the MEME market will appear at the end, but this round of MEME market appeared early. In addition to this, one of the biggest differences in this round is that there are now two very different views on the price of BTC in the market, the top and the bottom. Why is there such a big divergence in the crypto market, and where is the money flowing after the Bitcoin ecological hype cools down?
The Bitcoin ecological hype has cooled down, and institutional investors are showing signs of selling
With the successive launch of Merlin, the second-layer leader of Bitcoin, the inflow of funds into the Bitcoin ecosystem has not continued, and the signs of speculation have cooled down, while at the same time, the Ethereum ecosystem has certain signs of relay, among which the re-pledge track is worth paying attention to.
From the Glassnode data, the activity on the Bitcoin chain has weakened significantly, indicating a significant decrease in market activity. On the one hand, the surge in BTC on-chain activity may be affected by the halving of Bitcoin, and on the other hand, it is probably the launch of the second layer of Bitcoin (Merlin), which has stimulated a surge in the activity of the Bitcoin chain in the short term.
According to coinglass data, Bitcoin ETF funds continue to show a net outflow trend, which indicates that U.S. institutional funds have shown a negative attitude towards the market outlook, and the overall short position has strengthened.
The crypto V@Phyrex_Ni tweeted on April 27: When I wrote today's spot ETF data, my mood was relatively heavy, because in the past 24 hours, I have witnessed two of the worst data from the beginning of the Bitcoin spot ETF to the present, the first is the net outflow data of Fidelity, the first echelon of #BTC holdings, although the outflow is not much, but it also represents that the user's sentiment has been unstable. The second is that in the last 24 hours, in addition to GBTC, the net increase in institutional BTC of nine ETFs other than GBTC is only in single digits, and even less than 2 BTC, if Fidelity's reduction is a shock in user sentiment, then the net increase in nine ETFs represents the purchasing power of American investors, whether it has fallen to the bottom, I don't know, but it must be decreasing. In addition, there is a hidden data that BlackRock has not increased any BTC for two consecutive days, and it is also the only institution that has no net outflow since there is an ETF, while Grayscale continues to maintain its own outflow rhythm, with more than 2,000 BTC outflowed in the last 24 hours, which is also the highest number so far in the week, and the sell-off situation is not optimistic.
On the whole, there are signs of institutional funds flowing out of Bitcoin, while at the same time, the activity on the Bitcoin chain has decreased significantly, the market pessimism is relatively heavy, and the speculation of the Bitcoin ecosystem has shown signs of weakening.
The long and short game is fierce, and the pessimism of Bitcoin is spreading
The market is pessimistic as the outflow of funds from the Bitcoin ETF continues, but for miners, there is a positive attitude, and behind this positive attitude is the confidence given by the miners' mining costs.
Crypto miners @LordWilliamUK said that according to the calculations of the Capriole agency, the cost of pure electricity for miners to dig a $BTC after the halving is 77,000, including depreciation, management fees and other costs of 129,000 US dollars; other statistical websites show that it is 102,000; this data is high, it should be all mining machines, high-cost mines in Europe and the United States are counted; the cost of miners in the high-standard mines in the United States invested by our 1024 fund @1024_Capital can be revealed to you: after the halving, the pure electricity cost of the mainstream mining machine to mine a BTC is 55,000 to 65,000, Bitmain's latest mining machine T21 is 50,000, the top S21 is 45,000, and the depreciation and management expenses are calculated by another 30%. On the whole, the comprehensive cost of a BTC miner is 6-80,000 US dollars, and the shutdown price is 5-60,000 US dollars; high-risk mining farms in Africa, Russia and other places are not counted; in the bull market, the currency price kills miners again, and it is a small probability event to engage in mining difficulties, so it is your luck to be able to buy BTC at the same cost as miners at 60,000. This is also the deep logic of my 60,000 BTC dips and 64,000 full positions in addition to macro analysis, on-chain analysis, and technical analysis.
Although the positive attitude of the miners has provided some favorable support for the market, the pessimism in the market is spreading.
In addition, from the perspective of the cycle, Bitcoin also shows some pessimistic signs. Crypto big V @0xCryptoChan tweeted: Recently, the BTC: VDD indicator has burst into a historical peak. This may mean that the current period is not far from the #BTC Bull Peak (116 days after the historic peak in '17; 90 days after the historic peak in '21).
There are signs of funds flowing into Ethereum, and the re-staking track is worth paying attention to
Despite the current pessimistic market sentiment, there are also signs of capital speculation in some popular tracks. Judging from Defillama data, there are signs of market funds flowing from the Bitcoin ecosystem to the Ethereum ecosystem, among which the inflow of Ethereum layer 2 funds is relatively strong. In addition, the Ethereum re-pledge track is worth paying attention to.
According to Bitui, the re-staking protocol EigenLayer intends to open a token claim on May 10, and the newly established independent non-profit Eigen Foundation will become the entity that will issue the tokens. In addition to EigenLayer, what other mainstream re-staking projects are worth paying attention to?
Kelp DAO is a multi-chain liquid staking platform whose founders previously founded Stader Labs, the second-largest LSD protocol on Polygon and BNB Chain.
ether.fi is a liquid staking platform that has launched its liquid restaking token, eETH, on November 15, 2023, allowing users to stake their ETH to earn staking rewards and automatically re-stake their ETH in EigenLayer without requiring users to manually complete re-staking.
Stakestone is a one-stop full-chain LST staking protocol and will integrate EigenLayer. StakeStone is also deeply involved in Manta's incentive campaign, providing $720 million in liquidity in Manta New Paradigm's $900 million TVL.
Entangle is a cross-chain DeFi protocol whose products include Liquid Vaults, oracles, and Photon communication protocols. In January 2024, Entangle closed a $4 million seed and private round with participation from Big Brain Holdings, Launch Code Capital, and others.
Karak is a modular Layer 2 with native risk management, restaking, and AI infrastructure. On December 13, 2023, Karak developer Andalusia Labs closed a $48 million Series A funding round led by Lightspeed Venture Partners at a valuation of more than $1 billion.
Omni Network 是一个再质押区块链，允许开发者跨所有 Rollups 访问其应用程序。 2023 年 4 月，Omni Network 完成 1800 万美元融资， Pantera Capital、Two Sigma Ventures、Jump Crypto、Hashed、The Spartan Group 等参投。
AltLayer is a Rollup-as-a-Service protocol. In December 2023, EigenLayer partnered with AltLayer to launch Restaked Rollups. AltLayer is also one of the first 8 partners to use EigenDA for data availability.
SSV Network is a decentralized, open-source ETH staking network based on Distributed Validator Technology (DVT). A January 4 tweet revealed that SSV will complement restaking in partnership with EigenLayer, which claims that a "mainnet" EigenLayer validator is running on SSV.
summary
Essentially, Bitcoin is still an alternative asset or commodity, and its own risk attributes are still relatively high. At present, the geopolitical situation is tense, and institutional funds show obvious risk aversion, which is probably the main reason for the sell-off of institutional funds. At the moment, bitcoin is trading above $60,000, which is around the cost of mining for miners, which is also a positive factor for the optimism of the funds on the exchange. However, in the short term, the selling pressure above Bitcoin is serious, and the wait-and-see sentiment of funds is relatively strong, so investors should be cautious in the short term.