What is unexpected is that in 2024, the local market is still in a downward period, not only the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses has decreased significantly compared with last year, but even the housing prices in many cities have also shown a downward trend.
For example, in the past, everyone always thought that the population inflow in first-tier cities was large and the industrial economy was good, so housing prices could continue to be supported. But what I didn't expect is that now not only the new first-tier cities have entered the adjustment cycle, but even this downward trend has spread in the north.
In the face of this situation, many scholars have proposed that housing prices should be allowed to fall in various places, because once housing prices enter a reasonable price range, many people will be able to afford to buy a house, and the cost of buying a house will be greatly reduced, and the pressure on holding a house will not be too great.
However, some experts are against it, because if house prices continue to fall in the short term, there will be two major headaches:
1. The general psychology of buying up and not buying down may escalate because of the decline, and then accelerate the downward trend, at that time, developers may fall into greater trouble, and the house will become more and more difficult to sell, which may lead to some real estate companies may fall into an existential crisis.
2. If the house price has been falling, some old owners may find real estate companies to ask for compensation for the loss of house prices, don't think that this kind of thing is impossible to develop, in the past, the owners because of the price of the real estate company to sell the house, pull banners, sales center noisy, such news is not uncommon. In this way, it will be difficult for developers to continue, and it will also affect the stability of society.
In fact, if housing prices continue to adjust, it will basically have no impact on people who only have one house in their hands, after all, these people's houses are taken for their own living, and they will not sell their houses if the house rises and falls.
But after all, there are still more than 41.5% of households in China who own two or more properties, and most of them buy houses for investment needs, trying to achieve more investment returns by buying and selling houses. For them, the fall in house prices will inevitably have a big impact.
Not only that, once house prices continue to fall in the second half of the year, they may even face "4 major dilemmas" because of this:
01.
The market value of real estate is likely to continue to shrink
As we all know, because housing prices have soared in the past, people's incomes have never been able to catch up with the increase in housing prices, so the vast majority of ordinary families want to buy a house in the town, only through down payment + loan.
In the eyes of many people, the logic that house prices will rise forever also makes them firmly believe that the house can always maintain and increase in value. According to the data, today, the average total assets of domestic families have reached more than 3 million yuan, mainly the market value of houses. And if house prices continue to fall in the second half of the year, it means that families with multiple homes will have to accept the fact that the market value of their properties is shrinking.
And if this happens, even households whose income is not affected will fall into a consumption downgrade as a result. Let's take a look at this next.
02.
Multiple properties for families
Consumer demand will decline
If housing prices have been rising as in the past, then the wealth of residents will also continue to increase, and under the influence of the wealth effect, everyone's consumption demand will also rise. At the same time, due to the prosperity of the real estate market, it will also drive the development of dozens of upstream and downstream industries, promote the development of the industry, and also drive employment in various fields.
But if prices continue to fall, it means a significant reduction in assets for homeowners who own their homes, in which case homeowners will feel less wealthy and will reduce unnecessary spending to ensure their financial security.
Moreover, the continued downturn in real estate market transactions will also affect the income of employees in dozens of upstream and downstream industries. In the past, many people have experienced a sharp drop in income and consumer demand due to the real estate recession, and with the recession in the industry, this negativity may continue to spread, leading to a sharp increase in unemployment.
In fact, if you do this in the short term, it will not have much impact, but if it continues in the long term, this reduction in consumption behavior will slow down economic growth at the macro level, after all, consumption is the key driver of growth in many economies.
03.
It's getting harder and harder to monetize
As we all know, in recent years, after the property market has entered the adjustment, the market has fallen into a continuous downturn, not only the sales volume in various places has dropped sharply, but even the money-making effect has become weaker and weaker. In addition, the number of second-hand housing listings in various places has surged, and the performance ability of houses has become weaker and weaker.
For example, in the past, as long as some discounts were given on the price, even if they were old and small, many people were crazy to buy them. Once prices continue to fall in the second half of the year, many areas may fall into a situation where housing prices are "priceless but not marketable", and it will be more difficult to find a pick-up man, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities, because of the single industrial economy and the exacerbation of population outflow.
In first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, if the landlord wants to maintain profits and sell the house, it will become more and more difficult, and if you want to realize it quickly, you can only get a deal if the price is lowered, or even sold hundreds of thousands below the market price, otherwise the house can only rot in your own hands. Therefore, in the next few years, it will be more and more difficult to realize second-hand houses in various places.
04.
Landlords are at increased risk of disconnection
In fact, during the period of falling housing prices, if the landlord can still reduce the price and realize it, although he has not made much money or even has a loss, it is relatively good, and the most pessimistic situation is that because of the decline in the level, even many people fall into the risk of supply interruption.
There are several main reasons for this tragic experience:
On the one hand, once house prices fall too fast in some areas, even the down payment of homeowners has fallen. For those families who own multiple homes, they may feel that there is no need to continue to hold them, and then they will choose to stop losses in time.
On the other hand, the epidemic in the past few years has caused many families with multiple homes to fall into a sharp decline in income or even unemployment, if housing prices continue to fall, many people may not be able to afford the high monthly mortgage pressure, and eventually have to choose to cut off the mortgage, and then the court will auction the house that has been cut off. It is very likely that those who cut off their supply will also be included in the national blacklist of untrustworthy persons.
In the end, this round of housing price adjustment has almost exceeded everyone's expectations, especially those who hoard families, for many of them, if this round of adjustment trend cannot be stopped or even reversed, it may bring them a "catastrophe", because the decline in housing prices not only means that their wealth shrinkage and liquidity ability will become worse and worse.
In this case, the risk of housing supply interruption will be exacerbated, and even the consumption demand of ordinary families will decline due to the sharp shrinkage of assets, which will not only affect the depreciation of the assets of several families, but may even affect the long-term development of the whole society.
Therefore, the top priority is to stabilize the current property market, avoid big ups and downs in housing prices in the short term, and then gradually de-bubble housing prices through the way of exchanging time for space, and finally let real estate achieve a soft landing and return to residential attributes. Do you agree with this?
Wan Ziwen said: Every word of the article was typed out by me, and I clicked "watching" to let me know that you are also "doing your best" for life.
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