#精品长文创作季#
Author: Xiao Li Feidao, Editor: Xiao Shimei
In 2005, Yao Kuizhang took over Yangyuan and led the company's revenue to exceed 9 billion yuan in just ten years, single-handedly creating a marketing legend that is difficult to replicate in the plant protein market. However, after the peak in 2015, revenue was cut in half in 2020 and rebounded to 6.16 billion in 2023. The latest net profit attributable to the parent company is only 1.467 billion, a plunge of 48.3% from the peak in 2018, and its profit scale has returned to ten years ago.
Some people say that the decline of Yangyuan has its inevitability. Because Yao Kuizhang chose a business that could not be won by lying down, it was very difficult for the Buddhist system to lie flat and be undefeated.
【Business that can't be won by lying down】
Many years ago, West Weiyi, East Yinlu, South Coconut Tree, and North Lulu dominated the plant protein market, and the market pattern was stable, and it seemed that there would be no opportunity for Yangyuan.
However, there are cracks in the plant protein market, because it is not like the high-end liquor track, which can win all the way after relying on the early stage to stabilize the brand image, and it needs to capture the changes in consumer demand and continuously develop and promote new products in order to maintain the original business fundamentals.
High-end liquor solves people's social needs, condiments solve people's practical needs, and vegetable protein, as a leisure drink, solves leisure needs. Because of this, the first two have higher brand loyalty and higher consumption frequency, while the latter demand changes quickly and requires new products to continuously stimulate consumers.
From the perspective of the advantages and disadvantages of the business model, the leisure beverage track where Yangyuan is located is at the bottom of the entire food and beverage, far less than many tracks such as liquor, beer, and condiments. This means that there is an opportunity for the reorganization of the market structure in the plant protein market, and Yangyuan also relies on this business model to kill some blood.
▲The pyramid of food and beverage business models
It's a double-edged sword. When Yangyuan can't run, the new brand will break out of the encirclement and repeat the cycle of the past.
The plant-based protein business model makes it difficult to have a product with a long life cycle. Of course, consumers' demand for walnut milk will not be sustainable, and there will be a bonus period for products to enter the market in the early stage, and with the interpretation of time, it is relatively easy to touch the ceiling of the industry.
According to the joint research network, the scale of the walnut milk industry exceeded 8 billion yuan in 2018 and increased to 12 billion yuan in 2019. Later, the outbreak of the epidemic impacted the consumption scene of family gatherings and visiting relatives and friends, and the walnut milk market plummeted to more than 6 billion yuan in 2021. It has recovered, but it is far from its peak in 2015.
In terms of splitting, the demand for walnut milk in 2022 will be 1.337 million tons, a cumulative increase of more than 30% compared with 2020. However, looking at the absolute volume of demand, it is lower than in 2017 and only slightly higher than in 2015. In terms of price, there has been long-term stagnation. In fact, as early as 2014, the most expensive six walnuts were 5 yuan per bottle, and in 2017, it was about 6 yuan per bottle, and the price has not risen much later.
▲Source: Zhiyan Consulting
Walnut milk is an optional consumer in nature. As the price rises, many other categories of beverages can replace part of its demand, so the demand for walnut milk will also fall.
Volume reduction and price flatness is an unavoidable business model in the walnut milk market. Under this, six walnuts with a market share of more than 80% were deeply affected. In 2023, the cumulative total sales volume of the six walnuts will be less than 600,000 tons, a sharp decrease of 40% compared with 2016.
The business model of plant protein also determines that its industry threshold is low, and players in the subdivided track cannot resist the cross-border layout of players outside the industry. For example, Chengde Lulu, which has been focusing on making almond milk for a long time, launched walnut milk in the early years, and its income in 2023 will also be 87 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 80%, and the growth rate is much faster than Yangyuan's 1.1%.
In addition, Hainan Coconut Water, VV Soybean Milk, Sanyuan, Mengniu, Yili and other giants have also announced cross-border layout of walnut milk, all wanting to get a piece of the market with a scale of 10 billion. Facing the opponent who came in, Yao Kuizhang didn't have much to do.
In addition, soybean milk, coconut milk, almond milk and walnut milk are all plant-based protein drinks, and their own needs also have a substitution relationship with each other. In particular, soybean milk has made great efforts in recent years, and the market size has risen sharply from 14.2 billion yuan in 2015 to 18.7 billion yuan in 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.66%.
In 2020, soy milk's share of the entire plant-based protein market has soared to 22%, much higher than coconut milk's 14.2% and walnut milk's 9.5%. The growth of the soybean milk market will also erode the cake of walnut milk, because the entire plant-based protein market has not expanded in recent years.
What's more, new tea drinks will also occupy consumers' demand for beverages, and can also provide social venues to achieve higher value from consumption scenarios. In this way, Yangyuan's competitors not only come from players who are engaged in walnut milk from companies inside and outside the industry, but also from a variety of beverage companies represented by a wider range of tea drinks.
It can be seen that the business model of walnut milk and even the entire plant protein can only honestly follow the changes in consumer demand and is forced to face increasingly fierce market competition.
In such a general environment, Yao Kuizhang's Yangyuan at the helm is powerless, and the fundamentals continue to deteriorate with the shrinkage of the walnut milk industry.
[Choose to change or not to change]
In the face of a business model with a poor model, excellent entrepreneurs will choose to take the initiative to change and find ways to expand their business by creating demand, while more entrepreneurs will follow the trend and be tired of dealing with the ever-changing business battlefield.
In the first half of Yangyuan, Yao Kuizhang belonged to the former. In the second half, he belonged to the latter again.
In 2005, Yao Kuizhang led 58 employees of state-owned enterprises to raise more than 3 million yuan and wholly took over the debt-ridden Yangyuan. After operating independently, Yao Kuizhang carried out drastic reforms, cutting down many sub-products of Yangyuan, and only focusing on walnut milk with a small market and scattered pattern.
At the beginning of encountering a strong opponent like Chengde Lulu, Yao Kuizhang wisely chose not to be tough, but to find another way to use the sales channel of Laobai dry wine to distribute goods, avoiding its strong retailer super channel. According to media reports, after a year, Yangyuan won 30 million yuan in Hebei, reversing the decline in one fell swoop.
After the first pot of gold, Yangyuan development has been making great progress. Especially around 2009, he spent a lot of money on CCTV to shout out the far-reaching advertising slogan: use your brain often and drink six more walnuts.
Overcoming obstacles along the way, Yao Kuizhang only took 10 years to help Yangyuan from an obscure and almost bankrupt enterprise to the top spot in the plant protein market.
However, after the demand dividend of walnut milk was eaten, the market balance began to tilt. Yao Kuizhang was slow to act on the profound changes in the market, and watched his business go down.
Since 2013, e-commerce has become popular, and it has continuously and profoundly changed the sales and operation mode of all walks of life. The plant-based protein industry, including walnut milk, is no exception. In 2022, according to Guanyan.com, e-commerce channels have become the most important channel for consumers to buy plant-based protein drinks, accounting for 23%, surpassing 16% of supermarkets and 16% of catering.
▲Source: Guanyan Network
The channel changes have been earth-shaking, and Yao Kuizhang did not suddenly wake up until 2020, and began to plan to promote the digital reform of the channel, set up a channel strategy department, and allocated part of his energy to the online layout.
After a few years of tossing, Yangyuan is still not effective in extending through emerging channels such as e-commerce and community group buying. In 2023, Yangyuan's direct sales revenue (including some large supermarkets, direct sales departments and e-commerce channels) will only be 250 million yuan, accounting for only 4% of the total revenue. Consumers moving online are being carved up by competitors.
In offline channels, Yangyuan has always followed the style of "rural areas surrounding cities", but it has never been able to effectively break through the first- and second-tier high-end cities. However, according to Zhiyan Consulting, the first-line and second-line accounted for 18% and 31% of the sales share of plant protein, respectively. If this part of the city can't be attacked, then the market demand will be handed over.
Such an embarrassing situation is also related to Yangyuan's inability to effectively get rid of the demand for gifts. Of course, Yangyuan has always wanted to seek daily consumption scenes, but Yao Kuizhang has no better way.
However, soybean milk and coconut milk manufacturers that can replace the demand for walnut milk can well grasp the daily consumption scene, the consumption frequency is higher, and the cake is getting bigger and bigger.
In the face of the continuous shrinkage of Yangyuan's business, Yao Kuizhang did not choose to take the initiative to develop diversified businesses and PK with old rivals head-on.
You must know that in 2013, Yangyuan's walnut flower camping accounted for more than the walnut milk business. In addition, almond syrup and nut syrup have also improved a lot.
However, the more Yangyuan develops, the more concentrated the business becomes, and the walnut milk business will account for 92.6% in 2023. Other functional beverages and other plant-based beverages accounted for less than 8% of revenue. The second growth curve can be described as a flower in the mirror, a moon in the water.
In the context of shrinking main business and diversified investment constraints, Yao Kuizhang focused on huge dividends and large investment and financial management.
Since its listing in 2018, Yangyuan has accumulated a total of 10.995 billion yuan in net profits. And the biggest beneficiary of dividends is undoubtedly Yao Kuizhang himself and a group of veteran ministers who follow him to fight the country.
In addition, since 2019, Yangyuan has begun to invest and trade wealth management products on a large scale. In 2022, the total amount of various types of wealth management will be nearly 10 billion yuan, accounting for 66% of the total assets in the same period. Yangyuan also wants to contribute to performance growth through investment and financial management. But unfortunately, in 2022, Yangyuan stepped on the landmine of Zhongji Investment, and confirmed an investment profit and loss of more than 100 million yuan in one stroke. After that, there was a convergence in investment. In 2023, trading financial assets will fall sharply by more than 50%, while monetary funds placed in banks will increase by more than 100%.
It seems that Yao Kuizhang's Yangyuan Sword at the helm is going sideways, and it is getting farther and farther away from the past broad road.
The helmsman chooses to change and remain unchanged, and no matter how hard and difficult the business is, the results will be different. High Fashion Group entered the soybean milk field in 2017 and achieved a super record of 2.2 billion yuan four years later. This is the result of proactive change.
It's a pity that Yao Kuizhang chose not to change.
For Yangyuan's Buddhist state, the capital market naturally votes with its feet. The stock price peaked on the first day of listing in 2018, and since then its performance has continued to languish, and it was once cut in half, with the latest market value of only more than 30 billion. PE valuations have also fallen from a high of 25x to the current 20.6x. From the perspective of future performance growth, the latest valuation is not low, and there may be a risk of further drawdown.
Yang Yuan can't go back, and neither can Yao Kuizhang, who was once high-spirited.
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