How difficult is it for Chen Meng to be selected for the Olympic singles? One of three situations can squeeze out Wang Manyu

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2024-04-28 00:00Posted in Hunan Sports Creators

The Paris Olympics is approaching step by step, and the Olympic trials in the national table tennis team are about to end - according to the rules announced by the Chinese Table Tennis Association and the recent performance of the players, Wang Chuqin, Fan Zhendong, Ma Long, Sun Yingsha, Wang Manyu, Chen Meng have occupied the upstream, Wang Chuqin, Fan Zhendong, and Sun Yingsha have locked the singles ticket by relying on the point advantage.

At present, there is more suspense about who can get the singles qualification of Wang Manyu and Chen Meng, and the only game that will determine the future of the two is the WTT Saudi Arabia Grand Slam: Chen Meng has fallen behind Sun Yingsha and Wang Manyu in points, so does she have a chance to achieve a counterattack? Let's deduce the impact of the different results of the WTT Saudi Arabia Grand Slam!

Note: The matches mentioned below are limited to singles only.

First of all, let's take a look at the current status of points related to the three main forces.

After the end of the Macau World Cup, Sun Yingsha, who won the championship, continued to win the first place in the standings and opened up the gap with other teammates, and has accumulated 27,650 points, Wang Manyu, who won silver, maintained second with a total of 14,865 points, and Chen Meng, the third runner-up, naturally remained third with 13,310 points.

The worst possible result of the above three national table tennis players in the WTT Saudi Arabia Grand Slam is a round of the main event, then according to the regulations of the International Table Tennis Federation and the Chinese Table Tennis Association, she can only get 20 world ranking points, no team points reward, if you lose the foreign war, not only will not add points, but will also be deducted 3000 team points, a total of negative 2980 points.

Sun Yingsha, Wang Manyu, and Chen Meng can get the best result in the Grand Slam is naturally to win the championship, and they can gain 2000 world ranking points and 3000 team points, which adds up to 5000 total points - so theoretically, the biggest gap they can open in this competition is 7980 points.

However, as mentioned earlier, the gap between Sun Yingsha and Chen Meng has as many as 14,340 points, and the gap between Sun Yingsha and Wang Manyu is also 12,800 points, far more than 7,980 points, so Sun Yingsha cannot be surpassed even if she loses a round of foreign wars (not to mention that the probability of this happening is extremely low), so then we have to calculate how to fill the gap of 1555 points between Wang Manyu and Chen Meng.

Situation 1: Wang Manyu and Chen Meng lost the foreign war.

According to the latest announcement of the "Announcement of the Chinese Table Tennis Association on Optimizing and Adjusting the Relevant Amendments to the Selection Measures for the National Table Tennis Women's Team to Participate in the 2024 Paris Olympic Games", if Wang Manyu and Chen Meng both lose to athletes from other associations in the WTT Saudi Arabia Grand Slam, then they will not be rewarded with team points no matter which round they enter, and they will be deducted 3,000 points.

However, please note that even if there are no team points, the Grand Slam will provide world ranking points, but the runner-up of the Grand Slam has only received 1400 world ranking points, which is less than the gap between Chen Meng and Wang Manyu, so she has no other way but to win the championship, but as we all know, the athletes who win the championship will definitely not lose the foreign war, so this assumption does not meet the situation one.

So we can conclude that if Chen Meng loses the foreign war, Wang Manyu does not lose the foreign war, or both of them lose the foreign war, then Chen Meng definitely has no hope of counterattacking, and if Wang Manyu loses the foreign war, then Chen Meng can surpass the opponent's points as long as he does not lose the foreign war.

Situation 2: Wang Manyu and Chen Meng did not lose the foreign war.

This situation is relatively more complicated, because the points within the national table tennis team will only be available if they reach the semi-finals, and before that, everyone can only get world ranking points. But as mentioned earlier, the runner-up only got 1400 world ranking points, so the requirements for Chen Meng are even more demanding, because as long as she does not reach the semi-finals, it is impossible to achieve points overtake.

And even if Chen Meng didn't lose the foreign war and reached the semifinals, there was pressure, because he had to compare with Wang Manyu's results. According to the regulations, the top four players will receive 1450 points (700 + 750), the runner-up will receive 2900 points (1400 + 1500), and the champion will receive 5000 points (2000 + 3000).

To sum up, in the case that Wang Manyu does not lose the foreign war, Chen Meng must at least reach the finals to have the possibility of overtaking the points, and the semi-finals are no play, this alone is very difficult, because according to the world ranking draw, Sun Yingsha and Wang Manyu will guard the upper and lower two halves respectively, so if Chen Meng advances, there is a high probability that he will meet them in the semifinals, and it is very difficult to fight anyone now.

And if Chen Meng successfully enters the finals but does not win the championship, it will take Wang Manyu to stop before the semifinals to surpass the other party, because the runner-up will get 2900 points, which is 1345 points after subtracting the 1555 points that are currently less than Wang Manyu, and 1450 points will be obtained by reaching the semifinals, which is still more than 1345 points.

If Chen Meng succeeds in reaching the top, it will squeeze Wang Manyu into the Olympic singles, because the champion can get 5,000 points, which is 3,445 points after subtracting 1,555 points less than Wang Manyu - as mentioned earlier, without losing the foreign war and winning the runner-up, the athlete can only get 2,900 points, and if Wang Manyu encounters this situation, he will not be able to return to the sky.

Final conclusion: Chen Mengmeng overtook Wang Manyu and could only choose one of the three.

Combined with the above reasoning, it can be seen that Chen Meng can only squeeze out Wang Manyu, return to the top two of the national table tennis women's team standings, and qualify for the Olympics only in one of the following three situations in the WTT Saudi Arabia Grand Slam:

First, it is to win the championship by yourself;

second, he does not lose foreign wars, and Wang Manyu loses foreign wars;

Third, both of them did not lose the foreign war, and they won the runner-up, and Wang Manyu was eliminated before the semifinals.

Obviously, it is indeed very difficult for Chen Meng to counterattack, so are you optimistic that she will qualify for the singles of the Paris Olympics?

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