North China corn began to "pour in" into the Northeast! "Back to the horse gun", killing the wheat was shocked!

North China corn began to "pour in" into the Northeast!

Wait, hope, corn still hasn't ushered in a reversal, not only has it not reversed, but it has become more chaotic.

First of all, let's talk about the amount of corn in Shandong.

Although the previous amount is also fluctuating, high for a while and low for a while, it is still relatively neat on the whole, saying that it will increase, and it will decrease when it is said that it is not ambiguous.

But since entering April, I feel that the amount of corn in Shandong cannot be reduced, and it has been hovering in the position of more than 1,000 vehicles.

Finally, it slowly dropped in the past two days, to more than 500 vehicles, but overnight it rose back again, and increased to more than 700 vehicles.

What does that mean?

It shows that the sentiment of reluctance to sell at a high price has weakened significantly, and they are all looking for cars to produce food.

However, it is expected that the upper volume will not last long, because the weather is about to change again, and the weather forecast shows that many places in Shandong will usher in rain again next week, which is estimated to have a certain impact on the upper volume.

But the risk also comes, that is, there is a high probability that it will fight back after the rain.

The Shandong market has not yet been rectified, and the Northeast corn has also begun to worry.

Originally, I thought that Northeast corn was firmly in the fishing boat, but recently it suddenly fell again. Moreover, it is reported that due to the continuous inversion of corn prices in North China, there has been a phenomenon of "backfilling" of corn in North China to the Northeast.

Northeast corn is already difficult to transport, and I am worried about it, but it turns out again. Although the volume is not large, the impact on the market is not small.

Of course, the main influence is emotional and mental.

Because the current large circulation of corn cannot get up, the grain in various places is basically trapped in the local area, and it cannot be transported or digested, so the supply and demand have not changed much, and the main fluctuations are still in the mood and mentality.

Originally, the Northeast was still actively locking up grain, but North China's corn was so "poured back", which made enterprises hesitate. Although the volume of the Northeast has not increased much, the enthusiasm of enterprises has decreased, and the mood has begun to change.

Although North China is falling, and the demand in the southern sales area is also relatively weak, resulting in poor corn export in Northeast China, the Northeast market has been relatively strong.

On the one hand, it is backed by increased reserves, and on the other hand, it is also waiting for the market to open and turn over in one fell swoop.

But now it's getting a little pessimistic.

Because in the short term, the North China market in Shandong has not improved.

On the one hand, the selling pressure is still very large, coupled with the direct entry of imported corn, the bearish sentiment has increased;

On the other hand, the new wheat is about to be harvested, in addition to the risk of vacating the position, the wheat has also fallen recently, resulting in a further weakening of the opening scale of the new wheat and the gradual narrowing of the price gap with corn.

This also caused a certain pressure on corn, so it was difficult for Shandong North China corn to raise its head under internal and external troubles, and it was difficult to raise its head in Shandong North China, and the breath of Northeast corn was not smooth.

To add insult to injury, April is about to bottom, and it's almost May, and the market's expectations for May corn are weakening.

First, early-maturing wheat will be on the market in May, and corn may face the risk of concentrated vacancy, and the market may be under further pressure.

Second, demand in May is still worrying.

Regardless of whether there is potential for long-term demand, at least for now, pig prices are still fluctuating, and the average price has fallen in April, whether it can improve in May and how much it can improve even if it does, the market is more controversial.

Third, if you refer to last year's market, May is the low point of corn throughout the year.

As a result, the May corn can't help but be shrouded in fog again.

However, there is good news, although the expectation in May is not good, but some institutions predict that the feed consumption of corn is expected to increase throughout the second quarter.

The reason is that aquaculture is moving from the off-season to the peak season, and pig prices, although more controversial in May, are expected to be higher in June, so feed demand in the second quarter showed a seasonal recovery.

After corn falls to a low level, the advantages of its substitutes become insignificant, and the impact of substitutes may gradually weaken, which is conducive to the return of corn consumption.

In addition, the previous policy has clearly restricted the inflow of imported corn in the bonded area, which also frees up space for subsequent corn demand.

Therefore, it is expected that corn will usher in an upturn at the end of the second quarter, but it remains to be seen whether this stalemate can be completely ended.

What a "return gun" to the wheat! This time it really can't hold on?

Just two days ago, we still thought that wheat was more risky than corn, but as soon as this remark fell, wheat that had just improved started to fall again.

It can be said that this time the wheat has properly killed a "return to the horse gun".

First, the market rose sharply, and then before the market came to its senses, it immediately turned around and stabbed, and wheat fell again.

Doesn't it sound like last year?

Let's just say that history is always strikingly similar.

Like last year's market, this year's wheat is also "a long fall, two sharp falls", that is, wheat in the first fall, often lasts for a long time, but the decline is a slow downward trend. Then there will be a brief rise in the middle, just when the market is about to breathe a sigh of relief or has not yet relaxed, and then there is a second fall, and the price center of gravity directly downward.

It can be said that wheat did not escape this catastrophe.

And as we mentioned before, the risk of a second decline is higher than the first.

Why?

Because when wheat fell for the first time, the main body of grain was often unwilling, and there were also expectations, and the sentiment of price support was relatively strong. However, especially after experiencing a second decline, the mood tends to collapse first, and the decline at this time is often more severe.

In addition, the current wheat market is indeed falling.

First, the price of policy wheat procurement and two-way procurement is also weakening.

On the one hand, the demand is limited, and many flour companies are also starting up with a hard head, and they can't collect such a large amount;

On the other hand, wheat has been falling endlessly, which has also made the market's expectations for new wheat continue to weaken, and in the case of weakening expectations, enterprises' willingness to purchase has also declined.

Specifically, the transaction price of Xinmai's pre-purchase and two-way purchase has also declined to varying degrees.

Second, the turnover of wheat rotation is declining, and the supply pressure is difficult to release.

The turnover rate of rotating grains is lower, indicating that the rotation pressure of wheat has been released slowly, and the supply pressure has continued.

The closer and closer to the listing of Xinmai means that the time is getting more and more urgent, and in order to complete the task, there is an operation of exchanging price for quantity.

Therefore, this wave of decline is not unrelated to the exchange of price for volume of rotating grain.

Third, demand simply doesn't count.

Supply pressures persist, but on the other hand, demand simply cannot be counted on.

First, it is the off-season of consumption, and the supply of flour is not smooth, and the willingness to purchase is not high. Second, at least in the follow-up, there are not many favorable factors for wheat demand, and it is difficult for wheat demand to fully exert at least in the short term.

The pressure on supply continues, but the demand cannot be stopped, so it can only be frequently reduced.

To make matters worse, as wheat fell again, market sentiment also fell to freezing point, coupled with rising expectations for a bumper crop of new wheat, which made the market's expectations for new wheat begin to weaken.

Previously, the market generally recognized the range of 2600-2700 yuan/ton, but now there has been an obvious drop, that is, it has begun to move closer to 2500-2600 yuan/ton, and even more pessimistic has fallen to 2400-2500 yuan/ton.

So, is it really that wheat can't hold up and is going to break down and fall sharply?

Although the market is unpredictable, I don't think it's too quick to make a conclusion, because the wheat market is not completely sad.

First of all, it is an indisputable fact that there is little surplus grain in old wheat, not to mention that high-quality old wheat is even more scarce.

At present, the reason why Chen Mai is unable to exert its strength is mainly due to the crazy rotation of policy grain, which has pushed up the market supply, but there will always be a time when the policy grain will be auctioned, and once it is stopped, Chen Mai's surplus grain advantage will appear.

At present, this may be pushed to the future of Xinmai's listing.

Because at present, policy grain is still dominating the market, and only after the new wheat is listed, the demand for old wheat will really appear due to the late maturity period.

Secondly, as for whether Xinmai is expected to go down, it depends on three aspects:

First, the harvest of new wheat, including quality and quantity;

the second is the price difference between corn and wheat;

The third is the cost of planting.

It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of further weakening under the pressure of the new wheat harvest, but we believe that this is an inevitable fluctuation in the volatile market, and as the purchase and sale of wheat gradually stabilizes, wheat prices will remain in a relatively reasonable and stable range.

This year, the policy side has not given much support to corn, and wheat will not be left alone.