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Recently, Truss can be described as "frustrated". Recently, Tesla's sales in the first quarter of 2024 "flash crashed", with global deliveries hitting a new low in the past five quarters and the first year-on-year decline in quarterly deliveries in the past four years. On April 15, Tesla CEO Elon Musk issued an all-staff letter saying that Tesla would lay off 10% of its workforce worldwide, involving about 14,000 people. With the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicles, BYD is the "first shot" of price cuts, and the "involution" between car companies is serious, and it is confirmed that Tesla's "$25,000 cheap electric vehicle plan" has been postponed and fully invested in the field of autonomous driving.
At present, China's new energy vehicles are growing rapidly, and Tesla is facing more fierce competition in the Chinese market, especially BYD, which has threatened Tesla's position as a global leader in electric vehicles. Judging from the overall sales data of the two companies in the first quarter, Tesla delivered a total of 386,810 cars in the first three months of this year, BYD sold 626263 vehicles in the first three months, Tesla's sales in the first quarter lagged behind BYD by more than 200,000 units, and its market share in China fell from 10.5% in the fourth quarter of last year to about 6.7%.
Although sales in the first quarter were poor, Tesla is still the most profitable new energy vehicle company compared to BYD and China's leading new car-making forces. From the perspective of single car profit, according to rough estimates, Tesla can make a net profit of 43,300 yuan per car sold, while BYD is only 8,600 yuan, and the ideal has reached 31,100 yuan, and Weilai and Xiaopeng are still in a state of net profit loss, with an average net loss of 132,000 and 73,000 per car sold.
Looking back at the competition in the new energy vehicle industry from the "development of Tesla":
——Competitive echelon of new energy vehicle enterprises: BYD is in the first echelon
According to the revenue level, the competition echelon of the new energy automobile industry in mainland China is mainly divided into three echelons, with the first echelon with a revenue of more than 50 billion yuan, including BYD and SAIC. The second echelon is enterprises with revenues between 10 billion yuan and 50 billion yuan, including NIO, GAC, Ideal, Geely, Huawei and other companies. The third echelon is enterprises with revenues of less than 10 billion yuan, including Chang'an, Great Wall, Chery, etc.
-- Market share of new energy vehicle companies: BYD first, Tesla third
In terms of sales, BYD is the company with the largest market share of new energy vehicles in mainland China, with a market share of 31.72% in 2022, followed by SAIC-GM-Wuling with a market share of 7.79%. Tesla is in third place with a market share of 7.75%, followed by Geely with a market share of 5.37%. The market share of the remaining brands is relatively low, at more than 5%.
-- The regional layout of new energy vehicle enterprises
From the perspective of regional distribution, the layout of new energy vehicle enterprises in mainland China is mainly concentrated in the eastern and southern regions, among which Jiangsu Province, Shanghai City, Anhui Province, Zhejiang Province and Guangdong Province are the regions with more distribution of new energy vehicle companies. It can be seen that the distribution of automobile production plants in the eastern part of the mainland is relatively dense, and at the same time, the number of headquarters of new car-making forces is relatively large, while traditional car companies are more inclined to deploy headquarters in the southern region and production plants and R&D centers in the eastern region.
According to the report of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, the scale of China's new energy vehicle market is expected to reach 190.43 billion US dollars in 2023, equivalent to about 1,313.97 billion yuan at an exchange rate of 6.9; From 2023 to 2027, the compound annual growth rate will reach 14.18%. From 2024 to 2029, the size of China's new energy vehicle market is expected to grow from 1,313.97 billion yuan to 2,936.13 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.34%.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2024, the automobile market will continue to maintain a steady and positive development trend, showing a growth of more than 3%, of which 11.5 million new energy vehicles will be sold. Industry insiders believe that China's new energy vehicle industry will also have good and bad news in 2024. The words "promoting strengths and avoiding weaknesses" are still the general direction of car companies.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute.
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