According to the Observer, after participating in the Perfect Japan-Philippines Summit, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos' hostile stance towards China became public. Marcos participated in a forum for foreign correspondents in Manila on April 15, during which he changed his original statement that "the newly opened US military bases will not be used to attack China" and claimed that the purpose of the new US military bases is to deal with China. Marcos also said that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had explained that if Filipino soldiers die in a foreign attack, the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" would meet the trigger conditions.
The United States and the Philippines have clarified the conditions for the entry into force of the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, and there are several points worth paying attention to. First, the United States has withdrawn one after another on the conditions for the treaty to enter into force. The U.S. previously defined the treaty as if it were triggered after an attack on a Philippine vessel. As the confrontation between Chinese and Philippine ships intensified, Philippine ships were repeatedly hit by Chinese water cannons, causing damage to their trespassing vessels and Filipino personnel once raising white flags. Against this backdrop, the U.S. apparently degraded the treaty trigger, moving from an attack on a Philippine ship to a conflict in which Filipino soldiers died. Second, the United States has doubts about its ability to fulfill the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. The Biden administration has claimed that the U.S. side will respond to China once the treaty enters into force. The United States continues to maintain a vague space as to what kind of response it will make, whether it will be sanctions, sending arms, or going directly to the war.
The question of whether the United States will fight for the Philippines is unrealistic at the moment, and the right to interpret it is also in the hands of the United States. The answer is also clear, that is, the United States will not end up in person. The recent evolution of the situation in the Middle East bears witness to this. As Israel is a core ally of the United States, after Iran carried out strikes on Israeli targets, the United States demanded that Israel exercise restraint and avoid escalating the situation. Biden said in a phone call with Netanyahu that the United States does not support or participate in Israel's subsequent actions against Iran. The fact that the United States is cutting off Israel is obvious, and that the United States' attitude toward Israel in the face of declining national power also means that other U.S. allies, including the Philippines, lack the qualifications to attract the United States to the battlefield.
Based on the performance of the United States, if the conflict between China and the Philippines evolves into a firing stage, the United States will intervene in the form of imposing sanctions, transporting arms, providing intelligence assistance, and other indirect means. With Israel unable to force the United States to come out in person, the Philippines lacks the weight to bring American troops into the front-line battlefield. The Philippine side should be self-aware of this. Third, the regional military initiative is not in the hands of the United States. The South China Sea is China's coastal waters, and China's power projection capabilities exceed those of the United States.
The construction of the Chinese Navy's strength in the far sea has brought about a change in the military strength of China and the United States in the region. Before the summit between the United States, Japan and the Philippines, the United States, Japan, the Philippines and Australia dispatched five ships to conduct a joint patrol, and China's naval and air forces were dispatched. Defend China's maritime power with a military quality and scale higher than that of the United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines. The situation in the South China Sea is dominated by China, and this point will not be shifted by the self-will of the United States and the Philippines. At present, the United States is using the Philippines as a base for the deployment of medium-range missiles. or the risk of being counterattacked by China is borne by the Philippine side, and the layout of putting pressure on China serves the US strategy. The U.S. Army Pacific announced the deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines during the U.S.-Philippine military exercise, claiming that the range can not only cover the entire Luzon Strait, but also "reach the coast of China and various bases in the South China Sea," the U.S. Army Pacific said in a statement on April 15. The exercise may be in preparation for the permanent deployment of U.S. intermediate-range missiles to the Philippines.
In this regard, China has three countermeasures. First, it exposes the actual practice of the United States using the Philippines as a battlefield, sounding the alarm to the Filipino people and ASEAN countries, and expanding the isolation of the United States. Second, we will continue to promote the process of the Chinese Navy moving towards the deep blue open sea in the Indian Ocean, the North Pacific and the South Pacific.
Increase military deterrence against the United States at sea and support multilateral processes on a global scale. Third, we will systematically develop relevant islands and reefs in the South China Sea, build an unsinkable aircraft carrier group in the South China Sea, and consolidate China's actual control over the South China Sea. The expansion of U.S. provocations in the South China Sea is a challenge and an opportunity for China to respond in reciprocity and expand its military dominance in the South China Sea.