The direction of the property market: the end of real estate is finally clear!

Only in core cities can there be real estate.

This is already an inevitable trend, why houses in small cities are becoming more and more difficult to sell this year, behind it is that people's cognition is getting higher and higher, and leeks are becoming more and more difficult to cut.

Relying on returning to the hometown to buy a home, the beautiful fantasy of escaping from the first-tier cities and returning to the hometown to lie flat will be shattered little by little.

Let me tell you a point of view first: in the future, some cities will gradually become rural.

The phenomenon of Hegangization will also spread slowly, and many signals are telling you that the escape signal has arrived.

If you are in a group of small cities, then you must pay attention to today's article, some new patterns are being reshaped, and they are directly related to most people.

We must be clear that real estate and urbanization are inextricably linked.

Our urbanization has stages.

Industrial urbanization, land urbanization, and population urbanization.

The meaning of the written text is difficult for everyone to understand, so I will put it simply.

Until the beginning of our establishment, we were only a large agricultural country, and the vast majority of people needed to rely on facing the loess with their backs to the sky and praying for good weather to have enough to eat.

Even screws had to be imported, and cars could not be produced without a heavy industrial base, and at that time it was very backward, but backwardness had to be beaten.

Therefore, after the founding of the People's Republic of China, we vigorously developed industry, especially heavy industry.

The results are also clear:

In 1952, the added value of primary, secondary and tertiary industries accounted for 50.5 per cent, 20.8 per cent and 28.7 per cent of GDP respectively.

In 1978, the primary, secondary and tertiary industries accounted for 27.7 per cent, 47.7 per cent and 24.6 per cent respectively.

It took us more than 20 years to complete a gorgeous reincarnation.

If all the parents here are from that generation, they should have felt that the Northeast undertook a historical mission at that time.

The prosperity of the Northeast is also the mark of that era.

At this time, the income of our local government mainly came from the value-added tax of various township enterprises.

The second is land urbanization, where agricultural land is expropriated and then entered into urban construction, creating a large amount of land revenue for local governments.

Of course, this is also the first step in opening up the financial dependence of land.

At that time, the local revenue was mainly from the construction business tax and land transfer fees.

The third stage is population urbanization, and megacities have begun to remove the restrictions on settlement in new suburban areas, so that the population of the fifth and sixth tiers can gather in the first and second tier cities, and the new urbanization is accelerating.

In this way, the peasants were turned into citizens.

These three phases are also the key reasons why we have been able to go from strength to strength in the last few decades.

Have you ever thought about it, after entering the third stage, what will our place rely on to maintain income?

It definitely can't be a land transfer fee, everyone understands it.

So what else can you rely on?

I think it's by taxes, real estate taxes.

Because in the past two stages, we have brought a large number of people, resources, and industries to big cities.

The old industrial cities are declining, the third and fourth-tier cities are being siphoned, and as our population decreases, the rate of urbanization will only be faster.

Under this tone, many cities will have vacant houses, and schools will be integrated or even closed.

In the past few years, many places have begun to withdraw counties and merge districts, just to reduce more unnecessary costs.

According to the data, there are more than 200 small counties with a Chinese population of less than 100,000, half of which have a population of less than 50,000.

As we all know, if the local government cannot rely on taxes and land transfer funds to maintain development, it will have to rely on ZY's annual financial subsidies.

200 pocket counties, a county casually subsidizes hundreds of millions every year, and how many hundreds of millions do you add up nationwide?

What should I do when the cost is increasing rapidly?

Only by rapidly developing urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, integrating population resources and redistributing them!

Because in cities where assets have no value, there is no point in collecting taxes.

Before the news about the real estate tax coming out, many people asked me what to do.

As I said before, if your city can collect taxes, that's a good thing because there's value!

Real estate S will definitely not be levied on a large scale, but in order to supplement income, there is a key premise, the total amount of tax collected should be high.

This means that asset prices in some cities will have to rise to meet this demand.

Seeing that this smart person has already understood, real estate S is to be collected, not today and next year, but also at some time in the future.

In the future, the population will be gathered in the form of core city circles, creating wealth and increasing assets.

Then, through the method of affordable housing, the spillover will be realized step by step, and if the urban agglomeration metropolitan area can be done, the urbanization of the population will continue.

So, now that we have a total of 19 metropolitan areas, can they all be done? Which metropolitan areas have the greatest chance to rise?

If you want to buy a house now or in the future, you should go to the core city!

The new housing reform mentioned last year is also to prepare for the accelerated development of population urbanization.

If you still don't understand, I can give you another review.

From the beginning of the third quarter of last year to the present, we can feel the changes ourselves:

For example, let commercial housing return to commodity attributes

For example, cancel the current price of commercial housing

Allow more "good houses" to appear

The planning of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen metropolitan area was released

These are a clear sense that we allow and accept the price of high-quality assets to rise.

But at the same time:

We have vigorously developed affordable housing

Promote the transformation of urban villages in megacities

Encourage housing leasing to participate in financial support

These are to meet the basic housing needs of a group of people after entering the city.

To guide people to the city, we must also keep people.

On the surface, it seems that the cost of staying in the big cities is lower, but in fact, it is paving the way for the urbanization of the population.

And this time, as I said before, it is actually the birth of our housing reform 3.0.

In the 50s, we were a welfare house, and the distribution at this time was done according to the length of service and job title.

The aim is to strike a balance between fairness.

98 is our second housing reform, this time is the land finance + commercial housing model.

This time can be said to be the biggest change in China's wealth differentiation!

Now is actually the third housing reform, and we must take into account both fairness and wealth.

This is the essence of vigorously building affordable housing and returning commercial housing to the market.

This is also a core of accelerating the migration of people to cities.

So many things, you have to know how to understand the motivation behind it.

And how such a pattern is promoted has long been revealed.

You need money for everything, so where does that money come from?

The previous 1 trillion special treasury bonds, as well as the resumption of PSL at the beginning of this month, are precisely drip irrigation for the next development goals.

Judging from the past two times, 350 billion is just an appetizer, and there will definitely be more funds to support the completion of this matter in the future.

Moreover, this is different from the past when water was released to commercial banks, which led to the idling of money in financial institutions, and the money will actually flow to the market.

Therefore, the third round of housing reform is a very rare wave of wealth redistribution.

At this time, you have to understand the overall situation behind you, and you must know how to stand in line.

We must admit that in the future only big cities will have real estate.

It is also clear that in order to complete the increase in the price of core assets, it must also be driven by the release of water.

I don't know if you can understand it, but you remember the most important thing, go to the big city as much as possible, if not for you, but for the next generation.

Anyway, the signal is very clear, we will stand on the cusp of a new round of wealth distribution, and how to choose depends on the individual.

Finally, after the various signals come together this year, everyone must learn to judge:

The assets you currently hold are not in the core city or core metropolitan area, and you must also judge whether they are high-quality assets.

If so, you can firmly continue to hold it.

If not, seize this year's opportunity to sell, and there is another opportunity to optimize the replacement.