The direction of the Israeli-Iraqi conflict
How events developed after Iran's air strikes on Israel
On the night of April 13, 2024, Israel was hit by a large-scale air strike from Iran. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced:
1. Three batches of about 500 suicide drone swarms were launched into Israel, plus a batch of nearly 100 ballistic missiles.
Iranian missiles flew over the Israeli parliament building
2. All of the attacks by Iranian drones and ballistic missiles are Israeli military targets, and the hit rate is more than 50%.
Iran's official news agency, IRNA, claimed that the most important air base in Israel's southern Negev region had suffered "significant losses" from Iranian missiles. As can be seen from the images and data obtained, the base was seriously damaged. Iranian state television claimed that "according to the intelligence we received, half of the missiles launched successfully hit their intended targets." ”
Iran's allies Allah in Lebanon, the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Syrian militia have also simultaneously attacked Israel. Lebanese Allah chose to fire rockets at the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, while Yemen's Houthi rebels sent drones into Israel.
From the Israeli side, Israel, the United States, Jordan, Great Britain intercepted drones and missiles from Iran. The IDF said it "intercepted 99 percent of Iran's missile attacks." ”
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Israeli air defense systems intercept Iranian ballistic missiles
Note: The red dotted target shown in the video is a missile from Iran, the white dotted target is an interceptor rocket or missile fired by an Israeli air defense system, and the red flash is the flash of fire that exploded when it hit an Iranian missile.
According to statistics from the Israeli Ministry of Defense, the number of drones and missiles destroyed from Iran totaled 320 units/pieces. Only a few missiles landed in non-critical areas. The number shot down by the United States, Great Britain and Jordan was 70 planes, and the rest were destroyed by Israeli forces.
1. Why is Iran carrying out large-scale air strikes on Israel?
The immediate cause of the airstrikes was the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria on April 1.
According to Iranian state television, the public relations department of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on April 1 local time that Israel carried out an airstrike on the consular office building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria on the same day.
The building of the consular department of the Iranian embassy in Syria that was destroyed
According to information from the Syrian military and Iranian state media, Israeli forces struck the building of the consular office of the Iranian embassy in Syria in the Syrian capital, Damascus. Iran's ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, said in an interview that the building had "been hit by six missiles fired by F-35 fighters." He said he was in the main building of the embassy at the time of the strike.
The airstrike killed seven Iranian military personnel, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, commanders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force.
Mohammad Reza Zahedi
Why did Israel dare to carry out air strikes on the Iranian embassy, which is protected by international law?
The first was the "beheading" of the commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps "Quds Force". Iran has deployed a number of commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force in Syria, most of which operate inside the Iranian embassy. This place has actually become the command of the Iranian "Quds Force". These commanders are Israel's henchmen and must be put to death as soon as possible.
The second is to deter Iran. Iran is behind attacks on Israel by Hamas, the Houthis, Allah forces in Lebanon, and pro-Iranian militias in Syria. In doing so, Israel is trying to warn Iran not to engage in any more military activities against Israel, otherwise Israel will have more devastating retaliation than just the embassy.
Thirdly, on the one hand, it can destabilize the situation in the Middle East and thus divert the attention of the international community. On the other hand, it is possible to get out of the current predicament of the Netanyahu government. Some say that the attack on the Iranian embassy was a brilliant move by Israel. Because Israel is determined that Iran will retaliate for this move, this trick can be used to "attack the east and attack the west, and advance as a retreat", not only finding an excuse for its dignified withdrawal from Gaza, but also firmly "kidnapping" the United States on its chariot.
Israel withdraws from southern Gaza a day after attack on Iranian embassy [April 2, 2024]
Iran's launch of air strikes against Israel, 13 days after the attack on the embassy on April 1, suggests that the move was not impulsive, but deliberate and well-prepared. After all, this is the first time that Iran has attacked Israel from its own soil, and it knows that there is a high probability that it will retaliate against Israel. However, if nothing is done about this, not only will Iran's spiritual leader Khamenei not be able to get through, but it will also be difficult to calm the mood of the people at home. In other words, Iran's move can be described as "ready to be fired".
Iranians have rallied across the country to show their support for a push back against Israel.
2. How will the situation develop?
Let's start with Israel. Israel's retaliation against Iran's move is certain. As for how to retaliate, and what is the scale and extent of the retaliation? The Israeli Ministry of Defense described this retaliation with the word "unprecedented", that is, the scale and extent of the retaliation will be much greater than that of Iran. Israel has also told its citizens that it will see what will happen to Tehran, meaning that the blow to Iran's capital is a foregone conclusion. Of course, Israel destroys those military targets, including Iran's current nuclear weapons development facilities, unmanned aerial vehicle and missile production plants, and air and naval bases and equipment. Israel's retaliation must be aimed at depriving Iran of the ability to retaliate or retaliate against Israel from its own soil. In particular, Israel's long-cherished Iranian nuclear facilities, which the Israeli Air Force has rehearsed for many times, are known to be conducted by the Israeli Air Force. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that the "beheading" of certain key figures in Iran will cause a leaderless chaos in Iran.
Israeli Defense Minister Gallant speaks with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin by phone [April 14, 2024]
Let's talk about Iran. Before the end of the air strikes on Israel, Iran's representative at the United Nations announced that the retaliation was over. It also shows Iran's desire not to want the conflict to continue. However, if Israel retaliates, Iran will retaliate, unless it is knocked down in Israel's retaliation. However, although Iran claims to have a strong air defense system and firepower, it is not half a star compared to Israel's interceptor missile capabilities. In other words, in the face of Israel's powerful aerial firepower, Iran will not even be able to parry, let alone fight back.
Of course, if Israel beats Iran so badly that Iran has the idea of ending up with Israel, Iran may really be able to use nuclear weapons "in the face of the world's condemnation." Regardless of the painstaking negotiations between the United States and Western countries and Iran to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons, Iran may have nuclear weapons for a long time. According to information available to the United States, at the end of the last century, Iran bought nuclear weapons from the former Soviet republics. In other words, even if Iran has not yet developed nuclear weapons, but it already has a certain number of nuclear warheads, and it can already produce ballistic missiles, it may not be a problem to drop nuclear weapons on Israel. If this happens, and Israel already has nuclear weapons, then a nuclear war is inevitable.
Iran's uranium enrichment equipment
Finally, the United States. Normally, the United States would not be directly involved in Israel's retaliation against Iran itself, but would at best provide support, including money and intelligence support. In fact, in this Israeli-Iranian showdown, the United States has already entered the war. Information from the White House is now available to indicate that this information was in fact available long before Iran launched its air strikes against Israel. This explains why, when Iran attacked Israel, two U.S. aircraft carriers had already reached the Persian Gulf and effectively intercepted the Iranian missiles. Of course, if Iran brazenly uses nuclear weapons, the United States will have to intervene.
Four hours before the Iranian airstrikes on Israel, Biden was in the White House Intelligence Room to discuss with his aides the response to Iran's attack on Israel
In a phone call between US President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US position was clearly stated as follows:
The joint efforts of Israel, the United States, and other countries have led to the failure of Iran's actions, and the United States does not participate in and opposes any kind of counterattack by Israel against Iran. Israel should "take what is good."
Netanyahu's reply, however, consisted only of "an expression of understanding."
3. What impact will the Israeli-Iran conflict have on the world political situation?
The Israeli-Iraq conflict has plunged the United States, the world hegemon, into the quagmire of multiple wars. The Russian-Ukrainian war is developing in favor of Russia, and the Kazakh-Israeli conflict has put the United States, which favors Israel, in a dilemma, and now there is a grim situation of direct military confrontation between Israel and Iran. In addition, it is a critical moment in the US presidential election, and the Biden administration is overwhelmed by the opposition and rival Trump in the US Congress. If the Israeli-Iraq conflict is further escalated and the United States is forced to participate directly, the consequences will be unimaginable.
U.S. President Joe Biden
Some people say that the Israeli-Iraq conflict has helped Putin a lot. This conflict will inevitably lead to increased investment in Israel by the United States, and in the case of extremely limited war resources, it is bound to cause a serious reduction in aid to Ukraine, which can be said to be a "catastrophe" for Zelensky, who is already in a state of "anemia". Perhaps the Israeli-Iraq conflict will be a favorable opportunity to end the Russia-Ukraine war. As everyone knows, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Iran has firmly stood on Russia's side and has given Russia great support and assistance in terms of weapons and ammunition. After the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy, Russia called on Iran and Israel to exercise restraint. But since Iran's attack on Israel itself, no voice from Russia has been heard.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Russia, of course, does not condemn Iran and has no intention of inciting Iran to expand the scale of the war. However, if the Israeli-Iraq conflict intensifies, Russia will naturally stand by Iran and support it to the best of its ability, but it will not easily end the conflict directly. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that Russia will send troops to Iran when Iran is facing a catastrophe. At that time, maybe North Korea will be brought together to help Iran, a difficult brother. Kim Jong-un, who tasted the "sweetness" in the Russian-Ukrainian war, will not let go of this opportunity.
When Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, the United Nations, the European Union and other Western countries remained silent about this blatant disregard for international law. However, when Iran retaliated for Israel's air strikes, UN Secretary-General António Guterres immediately issued a statement on the same day, strongly condemning Iran's large-scale attack on Israel, and the United States and Western countries also came out to condemn it. However, those who came out to "pull the strings" are not willing to escalate the incident, especially those allies of the United States are not willing to fall into another war trap like the United States. If the Israeli-Iran conflict intensifies, it will inevitably lead to a deepening of the contradictions between the United States, the European Union, and other partners, or even an unhappy breakup.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned Iran's large-scale attacks on Israel
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