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The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

author:Pure Kan Sports
The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

As we all know, the next important task of the national table tennis team is the table tennis singles World Cup held in Macao on April 15, this event and the Olympic Games, the World Table Tennis Championships and known as the "three major competitions" in the field of table tennis, the importance is self-evident, so the event will undoubtedly receive great attention from many fans!

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

The table tennis singles World Cup is restarted again after a lapse of three years, and it is a new competition system, divided into group stage and knockout rounds, the number of participants has increased from the previous 16 to 48, and each association has increased from the previous maximum of 2 people to 4 people, and the World Table Tennis Championships singles champion and the World Youth Championships U19 singles champion are automatically qualified, and they do not occupy the quota of the association, so far the national table tennis men's and women's teams have 6 people have been qualified.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

The men's singles table tennis World Cup was held in Hong Kong, China for the first time in 1980, and until 2020, a total of 41 competitions have been held, among which Ma Lin and Fan Zhendong have won the most championships, both reaching 4 times. From 2018 to 2020, Fan Zhendong completed the World Cup men's singles "three consecutive championships" for the first time.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

The Table Tennis World Cup women's singles was also held in Hong Kong, China in 1996, which was suspended in 1999, and until 2020, a total of 24 sessions were held, and a total of 11 women's singles champions were born, of which only one player from the foreign association was born, that is, Japan's Miu Hirano, who won the championship in 2016. However, it should be pointed out that the national table tennis players Ding Ning and Liu Shiwen withdrew from the competition one after another, so far Miyu Hirano picked up a leak.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

The remaining 10 World Cup women's singles champions are all national table tennis players, namely Deng Yaping (1 time), Wang Nan (4 times), Li Ju (1 time), Zhang Yining (4 times), Guo Yan (2 times), Li Xiaoxia (1 time), Liu Shiwen (5 times), Ding Ning (3 times), Zhu Yuling (1 time), Chen Meng (1 time).

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Among them, Liu Shiwen has won the most championships, reaching 5 times! and Chen Meng won the women's singles championship in the 2020 World Cup held in Weihai, Shandong, and won her first singles world championship title, which is also the defending women's singles champion of this singles World Cup.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

The national table tennis team members have successfully arrived in Macao on the evening of April 12 to start the final preparation sprint, and the new format of the table tennis singles World Cup has entered the countdown!

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

According to the event arrangement, the group draw ceremony will be held at 15:00 on April 14, the group stage will be held from April 15th to 17th, the 1/8 finals will be held on April 18th, the 1/4 finals will be held on April 19th, the semi-finals will be held on April 20th, and the men's and women's singles champions will be born on April 21st!

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Let's take a closer look at which players are expected to win the title at the upcoming Table Tennis Singles World Cup.

Fifth place: Tomokazu Zhangmoto (0.1% probability of winning the championship)

Japanese player Tomokazu Zhangmoto is one of the main rivals of the current national table tennis men's team, and became famous very early, and won the Japanese national championship in 2018 before the age of 15. In the international arena, Zhang Benzhihe has defeated Ma Long, Fan Zhendong, Wang Chuqin and many main players of national table tennis.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Although in the past year or so, Zhang Benzhihe's overall performance in the international arena has not been ideal, and he has not defeated the national table tennis players, but the national table tennis team will definitely pay enough attention to Zhang Benzhihe as an opponent. In the comprehensive evaluation, Zhang Benzhihe's probability of winning the championship is 0.1%, which can be regarded as enough respect for him.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Fourth place: Lin Yunru (4.9% chance of winning the championship)

Chinese Taipei star Lin Yunru is undoubtedly the biggest rival of the current national table tennis men's team, in the men's singles semifinals of the Tokyo Olympics, Lin Yunru and Fan Zhendong fought 7 games, and the result was a 4-3 narrow victory.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

In the WTT Frankfurt Championship held in November last year, Lin Yunru defeated Ma Long and Wang Chuqin, two main players of national table tennis, and won the men's singles championship...... In this table tennis singles World Cup, Lin Yunru is undoubtedly the most threatening foreign association player on the way to the national table tennis team to win the championship.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Third place: Ma Long (10% chance of winning the championship)

At present, Ma Long holds 29 world championships and is the winner of the two-circle "Grand Slam", and is the "first person" in the table tennis world today! However, after the Tokyo Olympics, the Dragons have declined in their competitive state as they get older.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

However, in the Asian Championships held in September last year, the Dragons defeated Fan Zhendong again in the final to win the championship, which is enough to prove that the Dragons are still young, and he can also burst out with amazing energy, considering the age and physical strength of the Dragons, plus the new format of this World Cup, the probability of the Dragons winning the championship is about 10%.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Second place: Fan Zhendong (35% probability of winning the championship)

Fan Zhendong is the defending champion of the event, and on the stage of the World Cup, Fan Zhendong still has a great psychological advantage. From the current point of view, Fan Zhendong and Wang Chuqin won the men's singles quota for the Paris Olympics, and they are about to be officially announced.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

However, considering that Fan Zhendong's recent form is not particularly good, Fan Zhendong was blocked out of the men's singles round of 16 by teammate Lin Shidong at the Singapore Grand Slam in mid-March, and Fan Zhendong lost the foreign battle at the Incheon Championship at the end of March, and was blocked out of the men's singles final by Brazilian player Hugo. To sum up, the probability of Chubby winning the championship is about 35%, which is in line with Chubby's current real level.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

1st place: Wang Chuqin (50% probability of winning the championship)

Wang Chuqin is currently ranked No. 1 in the men's singles world, and at the end of 2022, the moment Xiao Zhan became Wang Chuqin's head coach, it can be seen that the national table tennis coaching staff is focusing on cultivating Wang Chuqin, and Wang Chuqin does have strong strength!

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

At the World Table Tennis Championships in Durban in the first half of last year, Wang Chuqin faced Fan Zhendong in the men's singles final, and there was still a certain gap, but in the men's singles final of the Hangzhou Asian Games in the second half of the year, Wang Chuqin faced Fan Zhendong and finally defeated Xiaopang to win the Asian Games men's singles championship.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

This table tennis singles World Cup is the best time for Wang Chuqin to attack his first world championship title, and he is the biggest favorite to win the championship, and the comprehensive probability of winning the championship is 50%.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Next, let's take a look at the women's singles, which is different from the fierce competition in men's singles, and there are 3 popular candidates for the women's singles championship, that is, Sun Yingsha, Wang Manyu, Chen Meng, and the following brings detailed information.

Third place: Chen Meng (15% chance of winning the championship)

As the defending champion of the event, Chen Meng still has a certain psychological advantage. However, Chen Meng's current state must not be compared with 2020, Chen Meng at that time was at his peak, after all, he is over thirty years old, and his energy and physical strength are completely below the level of 4 years ago.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

However, this event is an important event for the selection of national table tennis in Paris, and at present, Chen Meng is 210 points less than Wang Manyu in the selection points of the national table tennis Paris Olympics, and the gap is very small.

The competition between the two for the second place in the women's singles of the National Table Tennis Paris Olympics has entered a white-hot stage. Therefore, Chen Meng will definitely go all out in this event, and according to the comprehensive evaluation, Chen Meng's probability of winning the championship should be about 15%.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Second place: Wang Manyu (35% chance of winning the championship)

In February this year, in the women's team final of the World Table Tennis Championships in Busan, South Korea, the national table tennis coaching staff chose Wang Yidi, who had a low winning rate against Japanese players, to play, and gave up using Wang Manyu, who had a high winning rate against Japanese players.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

So far, after the World Table Tennis Championships in Busan, the head coach of the national table tennis Li Falcon personally said that Wang Yidi, who had a poor performance in foreign wars, completely lost the qualification for the national table tennis Paris Olympic singles, and at the same time optimized the Paris Olympic selection rules of the national table tennis women's team, increased the point deduction mechanism for losing foreign wars, and included the Saudi Grand Slam held in early May into the Paris Olympic trials of the national table tennis women's team.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

It is no exaggeration to say that this period is the best period for Wang Manyu after separating from his head coach Xiao Zhan, who has worked with him for 5 years.

So far, Wang Manyu has won the Singapore Grand Slam women's singles championship in March, and the Incheon Championship women's singles runner-up, and the overall state has been greatly improved.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

More importantly, in these two events, Wang Manyu defeated Chen Meng, the biggest opponent competing for the women's singles quota at the Paris Olympics, and surpassed Chen Meng in the selection points of the national table tennis Paris Olympics in one fell swoop, and came to the second place of the national table tennis women's team.

It is worth mentioning that if the table tennis singles World Cup is not restructured, it is not easy for Wang Manyu to qualify, and now with such an opportunity, Wang Manyu is undoubtedly the favorite to win the singles World Cup, and the probability of winning the championship is about 35%.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

1st place: Sun Yingsha (50% probability of winning the championship)

There is no doubt that the women's singles world No. 1 Sun Yingsha is the biggest favorite to win the table tennis singles World Cup! Many fans believe that the reason why the singles World Cup will be restarted in April this year is because it intends to create Sun Yingsha's fastest "Grand Slam" record.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

In fact, this statement is not unreasonable, after Sun Yingsha won the World Table Tennis Championships in Durban last year, she will basically get the singles ticket to the Paris Olympics, and adding the table tennis singles World Cup during this period will indeed be more attractive.

At present, among the active players of the national table tennis women's team, Liu Shiwen is only short of the Olympic women's singles championship from the "Grand Slam", and Liu Shiwen, who is currently far away from the field, is obviously unable to achieve the "Grand Slam".

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

Chen Meng is still the women's singles champion of the World Table Tennis Championships from the "Grand Slam", and for Chen Meng, who is already 30 years old, next year's Saudi Arabian World Table Tennis Championships may be his last chance to achieve the "Grand Slam", but the process will be very difficult.

And Sun Yingsha and Wang Manyu are still two singles championships in the World Cup and the Olympic Games from the "Grand Slam", and based on the current situation, Sun Yingsha's probability of achieving the "Grand Slam" is undoubtedly the largest.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

As long as Sun Yingsha stays focused, it is almost impossible for the players from the foreign association to defeat Sasha. And Sun Yingsha also has a certain advantage in the competition with Chen Meng and Wang Manyu, so the probability of Sun Yingsha winning the table tennis singles World Cup is 50%, which is in line with public expectations.

The countdown to the table tennis singles World Cup is based on an in-depth analysis of the probability of winning the championship

The upcoming table tennis singles World Cup will be very exciting! I hope that the national table tennis players will defend the glory of the national ball in our home stadium! Follow me and take you to understand the most detailed national table tennis information!

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