【Military Subplane】Author: Taibai
Recently, Serbian President Vučić announced that he would sign an arms purchase agreement with the French side as soon as possible to purchase 12 French-made Rafale fighters. The Serbian side said that the contract could be signed within two months at the earliest, and that they would pay 3 billion euros for the order. It is worth mentioning that Russia is Serbia's traditional arms trade partner, and many arms trade agreements between China and Serbia have been signed in recent years. It is completely understandable that Russia has no extra fighters to sell to Serbia because it is deep in the battlefield, but it is indeed a pity that we were not able to take advantage of the victory to pursue and win Serbia's fighter orders in one fell swoop.
▲ "Rafale" fighter, picture source: Internet
However, as everyone knows, arms purchases have a strong political connotation, and they are definitely not as simple as looking at the performance of weapons and equipment. In fact, there are traces that China and Russia can become the source countries of Serbia's arms purchases. Russia and Serbia have very deep historical ties, and the two countries share common practical interests. In terms of ethnic composition, Serbia belongs to the South Slavs and Russia belongs to the East Slavs, and in ancient times the two ethnic groups separated and established their own states, but they were both influenced by Byzantine culture and believed in Orthodox Christianity. In the 14th century, the Serbian king Stefan Dušan even attacked Constantinople in an attempt to replace it, much in the same way that Tsarist Russia later called itself the "Third Rome".
A few hundred years later, however, the Kingdom of Serbia was defeated by the Ottoman Empire, and the country has since perished. But the Tsarist Empire, which had the same roots, was very strong, and fought 10 Russo-Turkish wars against the Turks who defeated it. In the Crimean War, Britain and France preferred to help the "infidel" Turks who believed in Islam rather than Tsarist Russia, which made Tsarist Russia determined to completely break away from the Western world, and "Pan-Slavism" began to develop gradually. The doctrine was to build a great empire that would span Eurasia and encompass all the Slavs, with Constantinople as the center. The Serbs, who were enslaved by the Turks, therefore also saw hope for independence. After the 10th Russo-Turkish War, Serbia successfully achieved independence with the help of fraternal peoples, and after the defeat of Austria-Hungary after World War I, it regained many Balkan lands and finally became a member of the Soviet Union.
▲Map of the Socialist Republic of Serbia, picture source: Internet
However, in 1991, socialist Yugoslavia split into Slovenia, Croatia, North Macedonia, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina with the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1999, war broke out between the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Kosovo. Kosovo was originally a province within Serbia and was never a union republic. However, the majority ethnic group in Kosovo is Albanians, who are not satisfied with the pan-Slavist propaganda of the socialist Yugoslav era, and in addition to the lack of attention to the economic aspect, they have long had the intention of seceding from the country. In the 80s, with the decline of Yugoslavia's economy, separatist sentiment in Kosovo began to rise, and eventually the two sides faced each other.
During the war, NATO sided with Kosovo, and after 78 days of bombing, the Yugoslav army lost more than 1,000 casualties, more than 340 tanks and armored vehicles, and 121 warplanes. The oil refineries and fuel reserves of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia suffered heavy losses. Water transport, roads and roads have also been severely damaged. A year after the end of the war, Milosevic lost the elections and was later arrested. In 2003, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia changed its name to Serbia and Montenegro. In 2006, Serbia and Montenegro dissolved due to its unsustainable status and officially became two independent states, Serbia and Montenegro. In 2008, Kosovo in Serbia voted for independence in a referendum. Up to now, 98 UN member states have recognized Kosovo as an independent state, but Kosovo has not joined the UN due to the joint opposition of China and Russia. At present, Russia has chosen to continue to support Serbia, in addition to historical relations, but also to use Serbia to return to the Balkans.
▲The wreckage of the downed F-117, picture source: Internet
The reason why Serbia maintains good relations with China is not only because Serbia is the main body of Yugoslavia, but also because it also has common interests with China. During the Cold War, Tito's Serbia did not bow to the two superpowers, the Soviet Union and the United States, and wanted to forge its own path, much like China. In the 80s, China sent many experts to Yugoslavia to study agriculture, and local farmers even joked that our cattle here knew Chinese and could speak Chinese.
After the outbreak of the Kosovo war, China immediately provided assistance and solidarity with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. After the Chinese embassy was bombed by NATO, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was the first to condemn NATO, and it can be said that the friendship between the two sides was forged in the flames of war. Today, under the Belt and Road Initiative, Serbia is our key investment target. China is Serbia's second largest trading partner and an important source of investment funds. Serbia's infrastructure was severely damaged during the Kosovo War, but Europe was reluctant to help, making Serbia's economic development difficult. China has helped Serbia build a lot of infrastructure, especially high-speed rail. The 341-kilometer high-speed railway, which China helped Serbia build, is fast, and it takes only 33 minutes to travel from its capital, Belgrade, to Novi Sad, the second-largest city. As a result, Serbia became the first country in Central and Eastern Europe to have a high-speed railway, and its economic development has gained a strong momentum. In this regard, Serbia has always been very grateful for the help of the Chinese.
▲Serbian high-speed railway, picture source: Internet
Serbia's army has been in a state of collapse since the Kosovo War, and with the blockade of Europe, it has not been able to buy much weapons and equipment. Especially after the Kosovo War, the Serbian Air Force has only 4 MiG-29 and 11 MiG-21 fighters left. To replenish the strength of the Air Force, Serbia purchased CH-92A UAVs from China. This is a medium-altitude reconnaissance and combat integrated UAV, capable of carrying two FT-8D missiles, its combat radius exceeds 250 kilometers, and its performance is very powerful. To close the air defense gap, Serbia also purchased the Chinese KF-3 anti-aircraft missile, which is an export version of the Chinese Hongqi-22 missile, which appeared at the air show in 2016.
The KF-3 anti-aircraft missile has a range of up to 170 km and can hit flying targets at altitudes from 50 meters to 27 km. Missiles are guided by semi-active radar, and ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, fixed-wing aircraft, helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles are targets. It can lock on to up to 6 targets at a time, and the missile speed is up to Mach 6 with high accuracy. In 2022, China used the Y-20 to transport a battalion of KF-3 to Serbia, including 18 missile launchers, two command vehicles and six radar vehicles. Serbia ordered a total of 4 KF-3s from China. The arrival of the KF-3 gave Serbia the ability to deal with NATO's air blockade.
▲China's KF-3 anti-aircraft missiles exported to Serbia, picture source: Internet
During the Kosovo War, NATO countries imposed a no-fly zone over the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and NATO warplanes dropped countless bombs on Yugoslavia's head. In recent years, relations between Serbia and Kosovo have also been tense, and NATO has imposed a no-fly zone over Serbia from time to time. For example, in 2022, when China delivered an order for anti-aircraft missiles to Serbia, it coincided with NATO's blockade of Serbia, and all surrounding countries at that time did not allow China's Y-20 or Russia's Il-76 to fly through the channel, and finally we transported the goods to Serbia through Bulgarian airspace through diplomatic channels. It can be seen that NATO has been carrying out a brutal blockade of Serbia. In the absence of an air force, Serbia bought the CH-92A drone, cooperated with China to produce the "Pegasus" drone, designed and produced the "Hornet" unmanned helicopter on its own, and was equipped with the "Garanv" cruise missile similar to the "Witness" 136. Unfortunately, this equipment alone is not enough to make the Serbian Air Force stronger.
▲CH-92A UAV, picture source: Internet
Serbia definitely wants to buy fighter jets, and although its relations with China and Russia are good, it does not necessarily have to buy from China and Russia. Because in addition to China, Serbia also needs to enlist the support of other European countries. Before deciding to purchase 12 Rafale fighters, Vučić made a special trip to France and met with French President Emmanuel Macron, and the two sides must have exchanged certain interests in the talks. France, as an "alternative" to NATO, has not been completely consistent with US policy for a long time. In the future, with the support of France, in the future, such as joining the European Union and lifting the blockade, there may be help from the French. For France, as a country with a central location in the Balkans, it is self-evident how important Serbia's strategic position is.
Being able to show influence in Serbia is also crucial to elevating France's voice in Europe. So in general, the performance of the Rafale fighter is likely to be secondary, and besides, this number of 12 is simply not enough to change the status quo of the Serbian Air Force. Behind this deal, in fact, it is more of an exchange of political interests between the two sides, and Serbia does not want to offend China and Russia in essence. After all, the relations between Russia and France, China and France are also good, and friends of friends are also friends, so it can only be said that Serbia has made the most beneficial choice for itself, which deserves our congratulations.