France, one of Europe's leading bellwethers, has just reached a new military cooperation with China. On 25 April, Wang Xiubin, commander of the Southern Theater of the People's Liberation Army, held talks with Dandinje, commander of the Pacific Maritime Region of the French Army, during which the two sides exchanged views on issues of mutual concern. During the dialogue, the two sides signed a document on cooperation and dialogue between the two militaries at sea and in the air, and established a mechanism for cooperation and dialogue between the two countries' theaters. It should be pointed out that France has a certain influence in the Indo-Pacific region, and the consensus between the Chinese and French militaries to strengthen communication and exchanges is a good thing for stabilizing the situation in the Indo-Pacific region. However, while France is engaged in dialogue with China, it has intensified its collusion with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
Recently, the French ambassador to the Philippines, Marie Fontanel, announced that France and the Philippines will start negotiations on the "Visiting Forces Agreement", which is expected to officially begin in May. It is worth mentioning that France's special envoy for Indo-Pacific affairs, Marc Abonsur, also announced that France is "committed to upholding freedom of navigation and overflight in the area, as well as respect for the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea." Judging from the actions of the French side, it is clear that they are helping the United States and the Philippines to put pressure on China on the South China Sea issue. In particular, the Franco-Philippine "Visiting Forces Agreement", which, if signed, would allow the two countries to station troops on each other's territory, meaning that France may have permanent troops in the vicinity of the South China Sea in the future, which China firmly opposes. So, what are the calculations of the Paris authorities, and is there a possibility of a conflict between China and France in the South China Sea?
In fact, there are two reasons for France's involvement in the South China Sea issue. On the one hand, it is responding to the call of the United States and cooperating with the United States in exerting pressure on China on the South China Sea issue. On the other hand, France has always been an ambitious country, and the current French President Emmanuel Macron is a leader with the dream of a great power and has always wanted to boost France's international influence. The South China Sea issue is a hot topic in the West, and France has a certain influence in the Indo-Pacific region, so the Paris authorities will naturally not give up the opportunity to make a fuss about the South China Sea issue in order to demonstrate France's overseas influence. But the Macron authorities are not stupid, France is well aware of the consequences of a head-on conflict with China, and France's involvement in the South China Sea issue is probably more hype, and they know that they want to control the force, so it is unlikely that they will have a direct conflict with China. In fact, what is more dangerous in the South China Sea is that the Philippines has brought in other foreign forces.
Since last year, the Philippines has signed or is discussing new security agreements with at least 18 countries. The Philippines' intentions are obvious, and they know that they are unable to confront China alone, so they pull a large number of foreign countries together to form a team to try to confront China. Thanks to the efforts of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, the Philippines has indeed brought in a number of "strong aids", such as the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom and Australia. Among these countries, countries such as Britain and Japan are hardcore allies of the United States, and they have always been fierce on the anti-China issue. However, there is a real possibility that these extraterritorial forces will have friction with China in the South China Sea, adding great uncertainty to the situation in the South China Sea.
Of course, the United States and the Philippines are still the most likely targets to trigger the situation in the South China Sea to spiral out of control. The Philippines is still trying to use foreign countries to invade China's sovereign territory, while the United States wants to use the South China Sea issue to contain China's development. In the foreseeable future, the Philippines, with the support of the United States, is likely to continue to provoke China, and tensions in the South China Sea will continue. In particular, with more Philippine "strong aid" emerging in the South China Sea, China may face a one-on-19 situation in the South China Sea, and the Marcos administration's attitude will become more and more arrogant. China needs to be prepared for a new round of provocations, and perhaps the Marcos administration will have to suffer a little before it stops its provocations in the South China Sea.