At the end of 2023, the long-lost news of the "color revolution" appeared in the newspapers, this time featuring a country that has long been classified as an "unfriendly regime" by the West, Serbia.
As a Slavic state, Serbia maintains close relations with Russia, and its internal political forces are not controlled by the West.
Therefore, Serbia is one of the most hostile countries in Europe by NATO, since the breakup of Yugoslavia, Serbia has been pressed by NATO step by step, and in 20 years, it has spit out Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro and become a landlocked country without access to the sea.
This "color revolution" followed the classic routine used in the West - accusing the election of fraud, and then mobilizing opposition and supporters to march in the streets and smash government facilities.
In Vučić's mouth, this kind reminder of the great power should be Russia.
Around the world, almost all of the countries that have had "color revolutions" in recent decades have been close to Russia or have close ties to Russia, with one or two revolutions occurring in Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus.
This time it was finally Serbia's turn, because the government of this country is a pro-Chinese and Russian country that is rare in Europe, and President Vucic has unabashedly taken the path of independence, and Western countries have repeatedly threatened it.
Serbia has experienced a color revolution at the end of 2023, and Vučić's position is unshakable. The hard-line president has just suppressed the unrest in Kosovo, even if the United States threatens that "confronting Kosovo is confronting NATO", Vucic is not afraid.
Why, then, is it difficult for Serbia to improve its relations with the West? How did Serbia strike a balance between the West and China and Russia? Why did the color revolutions that disrupted Eastern Europe and Central Asia fail in Serbia?
[a]
In Serbia, no one dared to "surrender"
In the eyes of many people, Serbia is a hardcore pro-Russian country, and it is also on the same front as China.
But in fact, if you look closely at Serbia in the 21st century, it is not difficult to see that it is a very pro-Western country - Serbia and the EU are highly consistent in terms of domestic political structure, economic system, and cultural direction.
The country has been pursuing EU membership and has already obtained candidate status.
Both Eastern and Western parties in Serbian politics are well aware that joining the European Union is the shortest path to national development. Because after the complete loss of access to the sea at the beginning of the 21st century, the conditions for the independent development of Serbia no longer exist.
Speaking of which, during the "Federal Republic of Yugoslavia" in the 90s, the Serbs had great ambitions and wanted to be the hegemon of the Balkans, but the brutal Bosnia-Herzegovina War and the Kosovo War extinguished the hopes of the Serbs.
The war caused more than 100,000 casualties and hundreds of billions of dollars in economic losses to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. After the collapse of the USSR and the weakening of Russia, Serbia no longer had anyone to challenge NATO's hegemony.
As a result, the new Serbian government was forced to follow the path of two-sided currying favor and blending East and West, which they themselves described as "the brain in the east and the body in the west".
Since 2004, Serbia has extended an olive branch to the West, and two years later, Serbia has become a member of the "NATO Partnership for Peace", and since then it has gradually joined NATO's collective action, sending troops to visit military exercises, and sending representatives to visit and even study in the armies of various countries.
After 2008, the Serbian government decided to join the European Union, and in 2009, it formally applied and queued for three years to become a candidate country.
In order to be in line with the European Union, the country's economy and laws are learning from the West, and a large number of people are also flowing out of the West, and the whole country is ready.
Globally, more than 100 countries already believe that Kosovo has long since become independent, and only more than 90 countries, including Serbia and China and Russia, do not recognize it.
Serbia, on the other hand, will not budge an inch on the issue of Kosovo's sovereignty, and no matter what party or demand, it will not dare to give up Kosovo in exchange for the support of the West.
This is because Kosovo is the ancestral land of the Serbs and the spirit of the nation, and in addition to the bloody feud of the Kosovo war, whoever makes a mistake on this issue and "surrenders" to the West will not agree to it.
Therefore, even after more than ten years of queuing in the EU, the EU just does not accept Serbia, and even if it makes difficulties everywhere and cultivates opposition in Kosovo and Serbia, it is difficult to break the cohesion of the Serbs.
Of course, in order to maintain its independence, Serbia still has to break its teeth and swallow blood, flattering the EU while maintaining good relations with China and Russia, and maintaining a delicate balance in the international order.
And the latter is a strong backing for Serbia not to be successfully infiltrated by NATO.
[two]
China and Russia are the two backers, and Serbia knows it
First of all, as a Slavic people, Serbs and Russians are related by blood, and they also believe in Orthodox Christianity.
However, during the Cold War, because of the independent policy of the leader Tito, the Yugoslav Federation with Serbia as the main body and the Soviet Union had long-term hostilities, and it was not until Tito's death that the relations between the two countries improved slightly.
At the end of the Cold War, a wave of secession broke out in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and the Serbs fought several civil wars in an effort to maintain national unity.
When the civil war broke out, Russia was too busy to take care of itself in the economic crisis and did not extend a helping hand to the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, but Russia still pushed for peace talks between all parties and tried to minimize the impact.
At that time, the Russian government had illusions about the West, and the "empty checks" of the United States and the European Union convinced Yeltsin that Russia could return to the West and become a member of the Western camp after transformation and rejuvenation.
It was not until the end of the 90s, when the Russian economy collapsed and the civil war resumed, that Yeltsin completely gave up.
At this time, the Kosovo issue also broke out in the last acre and third of the land of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and in order to resist the West, Serbia and Russia, two brothers in difficulty, had to hold hands again.
During the Kosovo War at the end of the century, Russia sternly warned NATO not to attack Serbia itself, and as a result, the United States bombed Serbia with NATO air force.
In response, Russian Prime Minister Chernomyrdin canceled his visit to the United States, and Yeltsin sent special forces to raid the airport in Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, in June 1999, taking control of the airport from NATO and forcing NATO to negotiate with Serbia.
Russia flexed its muscles and shocked Europe.
Since then, Serbia has firmly developed relations with Russia, following Russia in terms of energy and military, the country has few resources in the country, and its economic development is mainly based on the export of agricultural products and machinery, and Russia is an important buyer.
At the beginning of the 21st century, Serbia and NATO have deep cooperation, and NATO even had instructors operating in Serbia, but the weapons and equipment of the Serbian army were still mainly Russian, and the intelligence system cooperated with Russia.
The Serbian army and the Russian army also conduct regular military exercises, and the Russian army comes to Serbia at every turn to "interact", which can be regarded as a demonstration to NATO.
In addition to Russia, Serbia's engagement with China is also the backbone of its economic and military development.
The relationship between China and Yugoslavia can be traced back to the Yugoslav period, when New China and the Yugoslav Federation established diplomatic relations very early and opposed the hegemony of the Soviet Union together.
After the dissolution of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, China continued to maintain relations with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and endured the Yugoslav civil war and the Kosovo war. When the world abandoned the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the Chinese embassy remained in Belgrade, which touched the Serbs very much.
In view of the addition of old comrades and new comrades-in-arms, the whole Serbian nation recognizes the path of long-term friendship with China.
After the disintegration of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in the 21 st century, the "Republic of Montenegro" also became independent, and Serbia became a landlocked country, and its economic development was very difficult.
Serbia's fragile economy needs cheap Russian energy and markets, but if it wants to be reborn and return to the world market, it needs China's new south-central Europe transport route, which is more important than trade with Russia and is the country's hope for the future.
[three]
Serbs, not alone
In fact, in the past ten years, Serbs have been forced to join the European Union by survival, and have not resolutely stood with their friends in some international affairs, but both China and Russia can understand Serbia's suffering.
Therefore, after 2020, despite Serbia's constant troubles, China and Russia have actively assisted without reservation.
At that time, China had been proposing the Belt and Road Initiative for almost 10 years, with the northern route passing through Central Asia, Iran, and Turkey into southern Europe, and the southern route from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean, passing through Arabia and Africa, and crossing the Red Sea into Greece and Italy.
The two northern and southern lines of the "Belt and Road" are the routes of the maritime and land Silk Road, with a focus on Europe. The two Silk Roads connected the resources and commodities between Europe and Asia, bringing development opportunities to countries along the route.
In this regard, the countries of Central Asia, Africa, and Southeast Asia have responded positively, and the Balkan and Central European countries in Europe, such as Serbia, Hungary, and Belarus, have also benefited from it.
But Europe is in a rugged shape, with a small number of landlocked countries, concentrated in Eastern and Central Europe. At present, Hungary and Serbia, which are pro-China in Europe, are also landlocked countries.
In order to revitalize the economy of landlocked Europe, China is building the "European Land-Sea Express", which connects Hungary, Serbia, North Macedonia and Greece, and its southern export is the Greek "Piraeus Port", which is controlled by China.
This line can be used as an outlet to the sea for Serbia and Hungary, and through high-speed railways, goods from the hinterland of various countries can be directly reached the port, and local agricultural and industrial products can be exported, revitalizing the economy.
Serbia itself has a good industrial and agricultural base and is the demographic and economic center of the Balkans.
However, Serbia's economic development has been slow due to the division and war in the past 30 years, so the "land-sea express line" built by China is the most important development opportunity for Serbia in the past 30 years.
At the same time as the road was being built, Chinese capital also invested in Serbia, revitalizing a bunch of enterprises, including the "Smederevo Iron and Steel Plant", solving the employment problem and increasing tax revenue.
Of course, this land-sea corridor is not only beneficial to the Balkan countries.
On the map of China's "Belt and Road", Serbia and Hungary can play the role of "transit station", and Chinese enterprises can assemble their products exported to Europe in these countries, and even put some basic product parts here to reduce production and transportation costs.
The new crown epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war have made Serbs see the importance of China - during the epidemic, Serbia was supported by Chinese materials and vaccines;
Although Vučić was forced to bow his head and join the sanctions against Russia, he will never relax on the Kosovo issue because of China's support.
On the whole, the era of the Yugoslav Federation's petty overlord has completely passed, and Serbia, which has now inherited the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, no longer has the heroic spirit of the Tito era.
Fortunately, the Serbs have their own toughness, their own national bottom line, and two strong allies to support it.
Therefore, the era in which Serbia is living today is not the crisis of the late 90s, and the Serbs are not alone in the face of the challenge of NATO, which is why the color revolution cannot penetrate Serbia.
After seizing the opportunity of China's "One Belt, One Road", Serbia's revitalization of national strength is absolute in the future, but as for how far Vučić can lead Serbia, it depends on the efforts of the Serbs themselves.
Literature / Shogakuno
Resources:
1. Serbia: The Next 'European Factory', Wang Su
2. "The Dream of Hegemon - Kosovo War", Na Chuan, Wang Fengqiu