As the saying goes, "If you don't explode in silence, you will die in silence", after a long period of patience, Iran, which had vowed to retaliate, showed signs of "eruption".
On April 10, local time, Bloomberg broke the news that a person familiar with the matter revealed to them that the United States and Israeli intelligence agencies assessed that in the next few days, Iran or its proxies will launch large-scale missile or drone attacks on military and government targets in Israel, and Iran may use high-precision missiles in the course of the attack.
The source stressed that both the United States and Israel believe that Iran will retaliate against Israel, and the difference is only in the time sooner or later.
To be honest, the reason why the United States and Israel were able to make such a positive judgment is inseparable from Iran's previous and recent performance.
First, there is a precedent for Iran to retaliate against countries that killed its generals.
In 2020, after the U.S. assassination of Al-Quds Force commander Soleimani, Iran fired a large number of missiles at U.S. military bases in Iraq, killing more than 100 U.S. soldiers.
How can Iran, which even the United States dares to retaliate, not retaliate against Israel?
Second, Iran's recent series of actions suggest that retaliation is on the agenda.
On April 5, at the public funeral of the victims of the embassy attack, Iran vowed to retaliate against Israel.
On the same day, an Iranian official broke the news to the media that all Iranian armed forces had been put on high alert in order to respond to Israel with direct action.
Later, on April 7, Iran displayed nine more missiles through state media, which it said could directly hit the Israeli mainland.
On April 9, the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy also issued a threat, saying that Iran had already seen Israelis in the UAE as a threat and would close the Strait of Hormuz if necessary.
Iran said that Israeli personnel were not going to the UAE for economic exchanges, but for related military cooperation, and that they would consider closing the Strait of Hormuz if Israel tried to threaten Iran through the Strait of Hormuz.
From the military to weapons to the response to the contingency, Iran has at least a rough plan for retaliation.
On April 10, local time, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali reiterated in his speech celebrating the end of Ramadan that Israel's previous bombing of the Iranian embassy violated Iran's territorial sovereignty and trampled on international rules, and Israel must be punished for its mistakes.
There is no doubt that this is yet another Iranian threat to Israel.
In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz issued a statement on social media, saying that if Iran attacks Israel from its own soil, Israel will respond by launching an attack on Iran.
On April 9, an anonymous Western security official broke the news to the media that Israel would strike Iran's nuclear facilities if it retaliated against Israel. It is reported that Israel has been planning to train pilots recently, the purpose of which is to strike at Iran's "sensitive sites".
First by bombing the Iranian embassy and now by turning the mind to Iran's nuclear facilities, if Israel's plan does take action, the Middle East will undoubtedly usher in a period of unprecedented turmoil.
On the same day that Khamenei issued a threat to Israel, Biden also reiterated that the United States will firmly support Israel and will "do everything in its might" to protect Israel's security.
U.S. officials are now helping Israel develop a plan of action and a shared assessment of the intelligence they receive, according to people familiar with the matter.
At present, it is becoming more and more possible for Iran to retaliate against Israel, and Israel, as the target of retaliation, does not intend to sit idly by, and if the United States also intervenes at this time, the situation in the Middle East will undoubtedly become more complicated.