Will gold continue to rise? Just figure out the four questions

If these main logics do not change, gold prices may fluctuate, but the general direction is difficult to change.

Author: Jinron

Many people came to me to ask me if gold would continue to rise, I think, these people don't like to learn, and of course they are not members of the Baopu Finance Private Association.

I've been shouting to buy gold, and I also did offline activities in Guangzhou and Shenzhen last October, hoping that everyone will buy it. These are evidenced by posters, articles, and videos, not an afterthought.

The result?

Some people are stunned every day by those who talk about macroscopic foolishness, and it seems that they have learned a lot of knowledge and learned a lot about world events, but they have not made any money.

There are also people who say that you should continue to buy houses, housing prices will go up, and there are real estate economists who worry about real estate, which is really ridiculous.

Some macro influencers are fools, because they are all how to get traffic, how to tell the truth, the truth, of course, they may not know what to do to make money.

If the masses know the truth, they still need to listen to your fools? The result is that the masses like to hear it, that is, some people talk about it every day, some people earn traffic, and the masses earn loneliness.

To this day, there are still people who are discussing whether gold will continue to rise, indicating that they know a lot of macro information, but they are either all wrong, or they have no cognitive ability at all.

01 Why do central banks work hard to buy gold?

Will gold rise?

I replied unequivocally: it will continue to rise this year, and we will talk about it next year.

Why?

There are only four questions that need to be clarified.

The first question: supply and demand.

Gold is a rare metal and is produced in limited quantities. But there are too many people buying, and many central banks, led by the People's Bank of China, have been buying.

On April 7, the People's Bank of China released official reserve asset data showing that the central bank's gold reserves in March were 72.74 million ounces, up 160,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the 17th consecutive month of gold reserves.

According to the World Gold Council, central banks continued to buy gold aggressively in October last year, with a net increase of 42t in the month of global official gold reserves.

The World Gold Council cites examples of central banks in Turkey, Poland, India, the Czech Republic and other countries increasing their holdings of gold in October.

According to a report released by the World Gold Council, global central banks bought 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2023, just 45 tonnes short of the record set in 2022.

According to the World Gold Council, more than seven out of ten central banks surveyed in 2023 expect global gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months.

Total gold consumption rose by around 3% to 4,899t in 2023, the highest figure since 2010.

Why should the central bank make efforts to buy gold? It must be that after synthesizing all kinds of information, it feels that buying gold is reliable, more secure, and will not be controlled by others, so it must buy and buy.

Some of the reasons cannot be described, but do you really not know? If you don't know, it just depends on the actions of the central bank.

Trust the central bank, the central bank is more professional than you and me.

If the central bank continues to buy, gold will definitely continue to rise.

02 Is banknotes still being printed?

The second problem: the flood is flooded, and the banknotes are too hairy.

Many countries are printing money like crazy, and the money printing machine is about to smoke. The United States has also engaged in QE, and inflation in the United States is quite strong.

As for some undisciplined places where money is printed without anchors, don't mention it.

China Gold News gave a classic example in 2018, with data sourced from the Federal Reserve Board of St. Louis.

In 1965, one new truck was equivalent to about 50 ounces of gold, and in 2018, one new truck was worth about 35 ounces of gold.

An average house was worth about 550 ounces of gold in 1965 and about 300 ounces of gold in 2018.

It is clear that gold is more reliable than paper money.

So, if you want to ask whether gold will continue to rise, you have to ask: Is paper money still printing? Is the money printing machine still smoking?

What is the answer, it is clear.

03 Is the world at peace?

The third question: Is there peace in the world?

Obviously, no, the fighting in Israel's Hamas is not over, the fighting in Ukraine and Russia continues, and then, all kinds of hot spots, including the South China Sea, Northeast Asia, are reminding us that the conflict and the game continue.

So, will it ease in the future?

My answer is still on the road to the fierce game, and I don't see the possibility of slowing down. Therefore, if you like the quiet years, it is just that you like it, and you may not be able to have it.

In other words, new conflicts and games will really intensify at any time, and there are huge variables in a country's general election, and this variable may make the world more turbulent.

So, how do you deal with this uncertainty? Nothing else is reliable, only gold gives me a sense of stability, hard currency, hard currency, can be used all over the world.

04 Will the U.S. cut interest rates?

Fourth question: Will the U.S. cut interest rates this year?

Yes. The current mainstream opinion is two or three times.

The U.S. has cut interest rates, liquidity has increased, currencies are flooded, money is worthless, and you can only buy gold in your hands.

The drop is sure to fall, depending on when.

Therefore, many countries, institutions, consortia and individuals are buying gold because they have to fight against the flood of liquidity.

There are many factors that affect the price of gold, mainly these few, but in the end, it depends on the result of the integration of multiple factors, therefore, if these main logics have not changed, the price of gold may fluctuate, but the general direction is difficult to change, note: I said the deadline is this year, next year's things will be next year.