Author: Li Yunfei|Source: Original
The world is back! Investors from all walks of life are bearish on the U.S. economy, which in turn has pushed gold prices to new highs. So how high and how long can the price of gold rise? Today, I will make an in-depth analysis of the international situation, the US economy, and the hegemony of the US dollar.
Unsurprisingly, another accident occurred, and that was the death of the Iranian president. This, in turn, has further stimulated safe-haven demand, which in turn has pushed gold prices higher.
According to the data, the spot gold price has now reached $2,440.61 per ounce, hitting a new all-time high. There really is no highest, only higher! Some experts said that there will be room for gold prices to rise in the future. So what's the truth behind it?
First, let's look at the international economic situation.
As the saying goes, gold in troubled times, antiques in prosperous times. Obviously, gold is not only an investment product, but also closely linked to the U.S. economy and the international situation.
From the perspective of the international economic situation, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the Iran-Israel conflict are all factors that are unstable in the international economic situation. And the reason for these factors is the principle of putting American interests first. It can be said that the instability of the global economy is led by the United States. Because of this, we can see that the US economy is really bad right now.
Let's take Iran as an example, and what Iran is doing now is bound to destabilize oil production, which in turn will raise international oil prices. Although Saudi Arabia and Iran do not deal with each other, from the perspective of the global economy, they are both major oil producers and OPEC members. So, they are still grasshoppers tied to a rope.
So will Iran's today be Saudi Arabia's tomorrow? I believe that Saudi Arabia will more or less change its mind at this time! So in this case, it is really difficult to say whether Saudi Arabia will cooperate with the United States to increase oil production. Moreover, it would add uncertainty to the historic cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Therefore, in the medium term, the U.S. economy is indeed extremely bad, which in turn makes the global economy very uncertain, which forms a strong support for the future price trend of gold.
Second, let's look at the internal economy of the United States.
Now the United States is not only creating chaos in the world, but also accelerating the harvest of global wealth. Essentially, the U.S. will not easily choose to cut interest rates if it does not meet expectations now. However, the real problem is that due to the high interest rate of the US dollar, the scale of the US debt has been further raised, and now it has reached nearly 35 trillion US dollars, and the risk of a US debt crash has further increased.
Moreover, due to the strong dollar index, now that countries around the world are dumping US bonds to save the foreign exchange market, where is the money to buy new US bonds that the United States continues to issue?
To put it bluntly, the US dollar interest rate hike means that the United States is betting with the world to win or lose, is it the speed of its own thunderstorm, or the speed of harvesting the world's wealth? No, now the Fed is saying that it is possible that the dollar will cut interest rates and not use the inflation index as an indicator.
Therefore, judging from the short-term economic situation of the United States, it may be difficult for the United States to blindly persist and choose not to cut interest rates. Now major investment institutions are predicting that the dollar will cut interest rates in September this year. Rising expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year will also lead to a new high in gold prices.
Finally, let's look at the hegemony of the dollar.
With the bottomless cutting of leeks by the United States, the whole world is now de-dollarizing and hoarding gold, which has formed a certain impact on the hegemony of the dollar.
In addition, the reason why the dollar can dominate the world is because the dollar is closely tied to the oil of the Middle East and Russia, as well as China's goods, thus forming a global financial closed loop.
But now Russia has broken away from the dollar system and is joining forces with China. And Saudi Arabia itself is wavering, and with the fermentation of the Iran incident, it may be a little difficult for the United States to regain control of oil. In addition, China, as the world's largest exporter of goods, the United States is engaged in decoupling and breaking the chain! As the saying goes, currency currency, how can there be currency without goods?
It can be said that the hegemony of the US dollar is now completely based on the high technology and advanced weaponry of the United States, and has completely departed from its proper monetary attributes. Based on this condition, the path of global de-dollarization is irreversible, and the hegemony of the dollar has lost its proper foundation.
Now some experts say that the dollar will become a second-rate currency in the future, that is, a regional currency.
If we take a long-term view, the world will either give birth to new global currencies in the future, such as digital currencies, renminbi, and so on; Either more countries will settle their trade in their own currencies. In order to establish their credit base, these currencies are more anchored by gold.
So, in the long run, the decline of the dollar's hegemony will also push up the future price of gold.
But it's also important to remember that the price of gold is now significantly out of whack from its value. This means that there is a certain bubble in the price of gold, and once the global economy stabilizes in the future, the price of gold will quickly fall back to a reasonable range.
Therefore, we ordinary people still have to do what we can and don't blindly follow the trend. You tell me?
Author: Li Yunfei, founder of a large Internet company, CEO of a large food chain enterprise, engaged in the Internet and physical chain industry for 20 years, has been reported by Sohu.com, Netease Finance, Tencent, Phoenix.com, Zhongxun.com, Baidu and other well-known media platforms, good at financial knowledge analysis, entrepreneurial guidance!