It has been 10 days since Israel dispatched F-35 stealth fighters and fired six missiles to raze the auxiliary building of the Iranian Embassy in Syria. Judging from Iran's actions in recent days, retaliation against Israel may be imminent, because the embassy is an extension of a country's territory, and the bombing of the embassy is equivalent to a direct "declaration of war". So, at the moment it is not a question of whether Iran will retaliate, but when.
According to reports from the Observer, Huanqiu.com, and other media, Iran's actions include: First, it has completely suspended flights in and out of the capital Tehran; second, all armed forces have been put on high alert; third, Iran pulled nine missiles out of the warehouse as a background when President Raisi spoke to the outside world; and fourth, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, Tangeri Siri, said that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz if the enemy comes to disrupt us. It is clear that Iran has already begun to prepare for a retaliatory strike. In this regard, we will talk about three topics.
First, Iran's retaliation against Israel, in what way?
Judging from the analysis of the US and Western media, Iran's retaliation may have four ways: one is to attack Israeli embassies abroad; second, to militarily attack relevant facilities in the Palestinian territories illegally occupied by Israel; third, to use missiles and drone swarms to directly hit government and military targets in Israel; fourth, Iran does not personally intervene, but increases assistance to its allies Hamas, the Houthis or the Lebanese Allah Party, and they attack Israel to complete the retaliatory action for Iran.
Previously, Israel has repeatedly struck Iranian targets in Syria, but Iran did not take action itself when it counterattacked, but was "done for it" by its allies, but this time the situation is obviously different from the previous one, because the bombing of the embassy is equivalent to the violation of sovereignty by Israel, which is a great shame for Iran, and it is impossible to ask others to take revenge for such a thing. Otherwise, Iran will never have the face to call itself a "Middle Eastern power" again. Therefore, the fourth way can basically be ruled out.
The remaining three ways are all Iranian hands-on. Judging from the current situation, it seems unlikely that Israel will attack Israeli embassies abroad, because Israel has already taken precautions, and second, there are not many countries where Israel has established diplomatic relations in the Middle East, and Iran will cross the border to attack Israeli embassies in other countries, which will also provoke new diplomatic troubles. "Attacking Israeli installations in the Palestinian territories" was a good choice, first, to achieve the purpose of retaliation, and second, to show positive energy, but the Israeli army may have seen this possibility, and after withdrawing ground troops from Gaza overnight, Iran wants to strike again, and there is no "high-value" target.
Therefore, Iran's use of missile and drone swarms to launch strikes against targets in Israel seems to be the "only option". First, it is the most direct revenge and the most painful; second, it can also respond to the current Palestinian-Israeli situation, forcing Israel not to attack Gaza easily, and Iran will personally end up, which will also give Hamas, the Houthis, Allah, and so on a "backbone", and Israel will face greater pressure. At the same time, however, the possibility of a "big war" in the Middle East has also been greatly enhanced, which is not good news.
Second, knowing that Israel cannot dodge a counterattack, what preparations have been made?
Objectively speaking, Israel's blatant bombing of the embassy of a sovereign country, even if it is retaliated against by Iran, is deserved and does not deserve sympathy. What's more, judging from Israel's various practices in Gaza, it really needs an opponent like Iran to slap it hard, help it wake up, and let it know that the world is not the United States first, Israel second, and mixed in the international community, but still has to talk about international justice, the lives of Israelis are fate, and the lives of Palestinians are also fate, and it is not something that Israel can slaughter at will.
Israel is already a small country with a small population, and it also knows that Iran's retaliation cannot be avoided, so it has made several preparations.
First, almost all ground troops have been withdrawn from southern Gaza, because this target is too big and is an excellent target for Iran's retaliation; second, it has temporarily closed 28 embassies abroad to prevent casualties among diplomats; and third, it has carried out "GPS jamming" in Israel, and the Israeli side has judged that if Iran strikes Israel itself, it will only be missiles and drones, because Iran and Israel are separated by Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and other countries, and it is difficult to achieve close strikes. And the implementation of signal jamming can make the incoming Iranian missiles "unable to find their targets".
However, if the Israeli side does so, it is very likely that Iranian missiles will be directed to civilian targets, resulting in greater casualties. In addition, all Israeli combat units have suspended their vacations and called up reservists to join the air defense forces. It also shows that Israel is actually planning an "all-out war" with Iran.
It is worth noting that it was Israel that took the initiative to ignite the fuse with Iran, and in the face of Iran's imminent retaliation, Israel seemed to be particularly aggrieved and once again threatened Iran. Its Foreign Minister Katz declared that if Iran launched an attack from its territory, Israel would respond and attack Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, "Whoever harms us or plans to harm us, we will hurt them."
In response, the British newspaper The Sun revealed a list of possible "Israeli targets", mainly Iran's nuclear targets, including the Arak heavy water reactor, the Bushehr nuclear power plant, the Gachin uranium mine and the Natanz nuclear facility. However, the "Sun" also believes that no matter which target Israel strikes, there will be a situation of "never ceaseless" between Israel and Iran, because I have nuclear facilities, don't you have either? Once a mutual strike is formed, it will mark "an unprecedented escalation of the Middle East conflict."
Third, what is the attitude of the United States, as the biggest supporter behind Israel?
While Iran and Israel are making comprehensive preparations, the US military units deployed in the Middle East have also entered a state of high alert, because once Iran and Israel go to war, the United States will not be able to stay out of it. Recently, although US President Joe Biden has repeatedly criticized Netanyahu, saying that if the Israeli army strikes Rafah, the United States will decide the next step of its policy toward Israel based on civilian casualties, which is the "red line" of the United States. Biden even went further and said that "Netanyahu's handling of Hamas is wrong and I don't agree with his approach."
However, the United States has not stopped military aid to Israel, and it is Israel's largest source of arms. In a recent meeting with the Japanese prime minister, Biden still said that Iran threatens to launch a major attack on Israel, and the United States has an ironclad commitment to Israel's security, and we will protect Israel's security. In other words, even if the United States is dissatisfied with some of Israel's practices, it will still stand resolutely behind Israel in the face of Iran, and even does not rule out joining forces to deal with Iran.
The Western allies of the United States, such as France and the United Kingdom, basically oppose Israel's way of doing things in Gaza, and only Germany still supports Israel's "self-defense" because of World War II. If Israel goes to war with Iran, the support from Europe will probably not be too great. If the United States intervenes, Iran will not hesitate to close the Strait of Hormuz, cut off Europe's energy imports, and let the Western camp quarrel on its own. Therefore, the United States' support for Israel will also lead to chicken feathers, and the situation will not be easy to clean up.
On the whole, Iran is not a soft persimmon, Israel is not a good stubble, and the United States is even more ill-intentioned.