Inflation exceeded expectations, and U.S. stocks fell sharply, and the national team regained 3,030 points
Today's news:
[The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down, most of the popular technology stocks fell] The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively overnight, with the Dow down 1.09%, the Nasdaq down 0.84%, and the S&P 500 down 0.95%. Most of the popular technology stocks fell, Tesla, Intel, Qualcomm, AMD fell more than 2%, Apple fell more than 1%, and Nvidia rose more than 2%. Real estate, automobiles, and regional banking sectors led the decline, with the S&P 500 real estate sector falling 4%, its biggest one-day decline since June 2022. Blockchain, Oil & Gas sectors are trading higher.
[National Bureau of Statistics: CPI rose 0.1% year-on-year in March, PPI fell 2.8% year-on-year] According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in March 2024, the national consumer price rose by 0.1% year-on-year. Among them, the price of food decreased by 2.7%, the price of non-food products increased by 0.7%, the price of consumer goods decreased by 0.4%, and the price of services increased by 0.8%. From January to March, on average, consumer prices nationwide remained unchanged from the same period last year. In March, the national consumer price fell by 1.0% month-on-month. PPI fell 2.8% year-on-year in March.
The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month in March, and the year-on-year increase rebounded to 3.5%. Betting on a Fed rate cut in June has all but disappeared after March CPI data showed higher-than-expected inflation, and even the outlook for July looks more volatile. Traders are also adamant that there will be only two rate cuts this year, while the Fed's dot plot is expected to cut rates three times. U.S. Treasury yields continued to climb on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield hitting a new high for the year.
"Zero Tolerance" to Crack Down on Violations of Laws and Regulations in the Capital Market] The CSRC will handle a total of 717 cases in 2023, including 186 major cases. During the year, 539 penalty decisions were made, with fines and confiscations amounting to 6.389 billion yuan, and 103 people were banned from entering the market. Continued to intensify the crackdown on suspected criminal cases, transferring 118 suspected criminal cases and circulating clues to the public security organs. In conjunction with the Ministry of Public Security and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, organize and carry out special law enforcement in cases of securities violations and crimes in the field of listed companies.
On April 10, according to the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, the advanced energy storage materials and technology research group of the institute has made new progress in the research of sulfide electrolyte, solved the industry pain points and bottlenecks of the sulfide all-solid-state battery tandem process, opened up the last difficulty in the manufacturing process of large-scale vehicle batteries of sulfide all-solid-state batteries, and made a key breakthrough in the sulfide pouch battery lamination technology. A number of industry insiders said that the solid-state batteries on the market are not all-solid-state batteries, but only semi-solid-state batteries (still containing liquid electrolytes), and all-solid-state batteries still need to overcome many technical problems from the laboratory to mass production.
On April 10, Schroder China Power Equity Securities Investment Fund, the first equity fund under the wholly foreign-owned public Schroder Fund, was officially launched. It is reported that the fund will be helmed by investment veteran An Yun, select high-quality enterprises to layout, and strive to grasp the two major market opportunities of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks. Based on optimism about China's economic growth prospects, foreign institutions have been raising their voices to be long and long Chinese assets while increasing their deployment efforts.
[The performance forecast rate of the chemical and automotive industries reached 100%] At present, the number of companies in the electronics, pharmaceutical biology and basic chemical industries that have disclosed the first quarter performance forecast is the majority, with 10 companies in each. The number of companies in the basic chemical, pharmaceutical and biological, automobile, and electronics industries is the majority, of which 10 chemical industry companies that have disclosed their first-quarter performance forecasts are all happy, and 7 automotive companies that have disclosed their performance forecasts are also all happy.
As of April 10, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 791.063 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.475 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 708.853 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.724 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1499.916 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.199 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
[Net inflow of northbound funds of 900 million yuan] As of the close of trading at noon, the net inflow of northbound funds was 870 million.
This morning, the market opened 14:3013 points lower, bottomed out 3,009 points, rushed up 3,044 points, and closed at 3,038 points before noon. The CSI 300, the Shenzhen Component Index, the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the CSI 500 and the CSI 1000 rose 0.03%, 0.37%, 0.17%, 0.61%, 0.91% and 0.69%, while the SSE 50 and ChiNext fell 0.02% and 0.37%. The ratio of individual stocks is 3286:1883, and the ratio of price limit is 46:9. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 496.5 billion, a decrease of 13 billion from the previous trading day.
Entering mid-April, the biggest uncertainty in the market is the annual report and the first quarterly report. Because since the announcement of the third quarterly report in October last year, there has been an information vacuum period of half a year. Originally, market investors basically made investment decisions based on the annual results of the three quarterly reports. However, the performance of last year's quarterly and annual reports is still a black box. So far, except for the annual reports of large-cap blue-chip stocks that have been announced in advance, the vast majority of annual reports of small and medium-sized stocks have been published in mid-to-late April. According to the usual practice, the more it is put in the back, the worse the performance, so after mid-April, few institutions and tour capital dare to do individual stock market, and it is easy to be sold off after pulling up, and the slightest carelessness will be trapped. The main force of many Zhuang stocks, demon stocks, and poor performance stocks has learned of the annual report from various channels, so they have made the decision to kill and flee in advance.
Therefore, we can see in the near future that most of the time small and medium-capitalization stocks are disparities between falling and rising less, which is an early reflection of poor annual reports. This Monday and Wednesday have clearly reflected this trend of the institution, closing through 3030 points and bottoming out at 3013 points.
Today, there is a negative news from the outside, the United States inflation in March exceeded expectations, the 10-year Treasury interest rate hit a new high, and the gold and petrodollar index continued to rise sharply. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates in June, and the expectation of interest rate cuts for the whole year will be reduced from 3-4 times to 1-2 times. Therefore, before the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are clear, a weakening of U.S. stocks will be a high probability event.
However, this negative news has little impact on A-shares today, because A-shares are in the valuation depression of the global stock market and have been fully dormant at a low level of around 3,000 points. Therefore, in the morning, when the market opened 14 points lower, after opening at yesterday's lowest point of 3013 points, it only fell 4 points to 3009 points, and the national team took action to protect the four major ETFs and four major bank stocks, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rebounded comprehensively. Northbound funds changed from net outflows to net inflows, and the market rose 35 points to 3044 points in one go, closing at 3038 points before noon, recovering the key level of 3030 points.
Judging from the statements of foreign investors such as Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Morgan, who are long and long Chinese assets one after another, the U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, and Indian stock markets have hit record highs one after another, and when they are sideways at a high level, foreign investors have shown signs of turning to A-shares. It's just that the inflow and outflow of northbound funds are uncertain, making it elusive for investors. But it is an irresistible law of nature for water to flow downward.
Back on the market, there is still a seesaw of bank stocks, heavyweight stocks and small and mid-cap stocks. However, once bank stocks and heavyweights traded sideways, small and mid-cap market capitalizations rebounded across the board. Especially when the large-cap index and various sectors pull back to a low level, large-cap stocks take the stage, and the situation of small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks singing can be formed.
There are also a lot of small and medium-sized market capitalizations that dare to rise this morning, most of them are high-quality, low-valuation, and high-growth stocks that were mistakenly killed in the early stage, as well as stocks that are still beautiful in the expected annual report and quarterly report. For investors who have difficulty in selecting stocks, they may wish to intervene at a low level when the four major ETFs and four major bank stocks of the national team are diving, and sell at a high price when they rise, or T+0 on the same day, which may be the safest operation, even if it is covered, it will be supported by a dividend rate of about 5.8%. With the national team, the winning side is far greater than the losing side.
The shortcoming in the morning was the rebound and shrinkage, with a half-day turnover of 496.5 billion, a decrease of 13 billion from yesterday morning. It indicates that there will be repeated contention at 3030 points. But the closer you get to the 3000 point, the more chances there are to grab a rally and T+0.
Afternoon attention: Can the market close above 3030 points? Can the top close above the 10 antennas at 3042 points, 5 antennas at 3046 points, and 20 antennas at 3048 points? Can the eight varieties of the national team protect the disk be stabilized? Can the northbound funds continue to expand on the basis of the net inflow of 870 million yuan in the morning? Can the situation of 3286:1883 stocks rising and falling more and falling less can be maintained and expanded? Can the trading volume be more than 800 billion?