The northbound capital is 13.5 billion to grab A-shares, and the market closes at 3100
Today's news:
[The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed down, Meta fell more than 10%, and the market value evaporated about $130 billion] The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively overnight, with the Dow down 0.98%, the Nasdaq down 0.64%, and the S&P 500 down 0.46%. Meta fell more than 10%, and its market value evaporated by about $130 billion; IBM fell more than 8%, Microsoft fell more than 2%, Google and Amazon fell more than 1%, Tesla rose about 5%, Nvidia rose more than 3%, and Netflix and Intel rose more than 1%.
[Guolian Securities plans to issue shares to acquire Minsheng Securities, and the brokerage stocks collectively open high] Guosheng Financial Holding bids the daily limit, Founder Securities, Capital Securities, Huachuang Yunxin, Cinda Securities, Zheshang Securities, Huatai Securities, etc. In addition, Hong Kong-listed Guolian Securities opened 14.92% higher. On the news side, Guolian Securities announced last night that the company is planning to acquire control of Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. and raise matching funds by issuing A shares. Trading in the Company's A-shares will be suspended from the market open on Friday, April 26, 2024, and the suspension is expected to last no more than 10 trading days.
Foreign giants suddenly turned to the Chinese real estate market, which attracted attention. John LamJ, head analyst of UBS Greater China Real Estate Research, said in a recent interview: "For the first time after three years of bearishness, we have become more optimistic about China's real estate sector thanks to government assistance. ”
As of April 25, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 784.559 billion yuan, a decrease of 763 million yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 699.634 billion yuan, an increase of 198 million yuan from the previous trading day, and the total financing balance of the two cities was 1484.193 billion yuan, a decrease of 565 million yuan from the previous trading day.
[Net inflow of northbound funds such as 13.5 billion yuan] As of the close of trading at noon, the net inflow of northbound funds was 13.524 billion.
This morning, the market opened 2 points higher at 3054 points, which is the lowest point, rushed up 3080 points, and closed at 3076 points before noon. SSE 50, CSI 300, SSE Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, STAR Market, CSI 500, CSI 1000 rose 0.93%, 1.03%, 0.79%, 1.51%, 2.54%, 2.10%, 1.27%, 1.46%. The ratio of individual stocks is 3678:1474, and the ratio of price limit is 71:4. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 638.4 billion, an increase of 139.1 billion from the previous trading day.
Yesterday, I reminded foreign investors in my afternoon comment that they were collectively long and long A-shares, especially Goldman Sachs and UBS, predicted that the valuation of A-shares could increase by 40%, that is, from 3,000 points to 4,200 points. This is an astonishing statement, and the vast majority of investors can't believe it and take it as a joke. I also made a conservative estimate, a 1200-point discount is 3600 points, which is still too high, so I cut 1000 points to the maximum extent, and conservatively estimated 3200 points.
Many friends called me or left a message, saying that Mr. Li's estimate is still too optimistic, A-shares have always had the law of falling for a long time, and 3,000 points have not risen for 43 days, so they have to retreat to 2,800 points. This morning, the vast majority of people are still worried that there will be more thunderstorms in the last three days of the annual report, and they plan to truce before the May Day holiday.
However, what is surprising is that the four major ETFs of the national team have made upward efforts, and the four major bank stocks have pulled back sharply. If the four major bank stocks are also in the red this year, the index is already 3,100 points. Northbound funds rushed all the way, with a rare net inflow of 13.5 billion yuan before noon, setting a record for the net inflow in half a day this year.
It seems that the net outflow of northbound funds since early April for most of the time is to attract the market to follow the trend and short, suppress the index to 3,000 points, and then go to the bottom. Finally, this morning, the poor dagger saw that its behavior was consistent with the collective bullishness of foreign investors on A-shares.
The reason why foreign investors are bullish on A-shares is first related to the Fed's postponement of interest rate cuts. As the U.S. interest rate is as high as 5.5%, the 10-year Treasury bond yield is 4.7%, and the 2-year Treasury bond interest rate is 5%, the cost of corporate loans has increased sharply, the operating pressure has increased, the product competitiveness has weakened, the economy will inevitably decline, and the performance of listed companies will inevitably decline, and the U.S. stock market will continue to adjust downward. As a result, foreign investors have retreated from the U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, and Indian stock markets and turned to A-shares.
Second, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares is only half of that of mature stock markets, or even less than half, and the valuation depression is extremely attractive.
Third, in the form of a blockbuster document, the nine articles of the new country ended the great leap forward of expansion in the past two decades, paid more attention to improving the quality of listed companies, and established a series of rules and regulations to plug loopholes and make up for shortcomings, which made the ecology of A-shares undergo major changes. And the GDP growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations by 5.3%, and the economy is improving. Finally, due to the huge amount of money of the national team, the decline space below 3,000 points has been effectively blocked, so foreign capital can only grab the market not far from 3,000 points.
Finally, foreign capital in Hong Kong stocks took the lead in success, Hong Kong stocks rose for 6 consecutive days, from 16,044-17,633 points, up 1,600 points, or 10%. This move cannot but be of great concern. This morning, driven by the rush of foreign capital, investors who have cleared their short positions can no longer bear it and increase their positions before the long holiday. The trading volume in the morning increased by 139.3 billion compared with yesterday, and the individual stocks rose more and fell less, nearly 3:1. The leading sector is the TMT concept, that is, quantum communication, computing power, AI chips, software, information innovation, big data, the Internet, domestic alternative servers, etc., all of which are high-quality, over-falling, and wrongly killed mid-cap stocks with new productivity. This is the signal of the mainstream hot spot in the market after the May Day holiday.
Judging from the disk, the market has firmly stood at the 20-day line at 3048 points and the five-week moving average at 3054 points. As long as it closes above 3065 points, it will close out of the weekly yang line this week, and if it closes above 3074 points, the weekly line will stabilize and end the adjustment. In the two trading days next week, there is still the possibility of challenging 3100 points again, but the real market will unfold after May Day. This morning's increase is the fastest day since April, and the wealth effect is more obvious.
Defensive investors who are short may wish to pay attention to the four major bank stocks that have fallen sharply today, dividing 0.306 yuan, 0.23 yuan, 0.236 yuan, and 0.4 yuan by their respective stock prices, and if the dividend rate reaches 6%, or even more than 6%, they can intervene on dips and get dividends of three to four times the annual interest rate of the bank after 2 months.
Afternoon attention: Can the bottom of the market close above 3,065 points? Can the top close above 3,074 points? Can the four major bank stocks of the national team rebound? Can northbound funds maintain or continue to increase on the basis of the highest net inflow of 13.5 billion yuan in the morning? Can the disparity between 3678:1474 individual stocks be maintained and expanded? Can the trading volume be above one trillion yuan?