Geopolitical conflict plus futures refers to the delivery curse, bank stocks are strong, small and mid-cap stocks fall
Today's news:
[The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, most of the popular technology stocks fell] The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed overnight, with the Dow up 0.06%, the Nasdaq down 0.52%, the S&P 500 down 0.22%, most of the popular technology stocks fell, Tesla fell more than 3%, hitting a new closing low since January 2023, Microsoft and Amazon fell more than 1%, and Meta rose more than 1%. The solar energy, semiconductor, and oil and gas refining sectors were among the top decliners, with Canadian Solar falling nearly 4%, Marathon crude oil falling more than 3%, and Kelei, ASML, and First Solar falling more than 2%. Social media, airlines, and WSB concept stocks rose, Snap rose more than 6%, United Airlines rose more than 5%, JetBlue Airways rose more than 4%, and Carvana rose more than 2%.
On April 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Zhu Hexin, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesman of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Zou Lan, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, and Zhang Wenhong, responsible person of the Survey and Statistics Department of the People's Bank of China, attended the press conference and answered reporters' questions.
The State Council recently issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening Supervision and Risk Prevention to Promote the High-quality Development of the Capital Market", proposing to establish a market ecology that cultivates long-term investment, improve the basic system for long-term investment, and build a policy system to support "long-term money and long-term investment".
As the "big dividenders" of the A-share market, the listed banks have released their dividend plans for 2023 one after another. As of press time, 23 listed banks have disclosed their 2023 annual reports, of which 22 have disclosed profit distribution plans. The reporter found that the dividend yield of most listed banks (calculated according to the closing price at the end of 2023, the same below) is higher than 5%. Among them, Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Bank of Beijing all have dividend yields of more than 7%.
【The financing balance of the two cities increased by 2.302 billion yuan】The financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 790.047 billion yuan, an increase of 1.241 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 701.669 billion yuan, an increase of 1.061 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1,491.716 billion yuan, an increase of 2.302 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
[Net outflow of northbound funds of 5.3 billion yuan] As of the close of trading at noon, the net outflow of northbound funds was 5.29 billion.
This morning, the market opened 14 points 3060 points low, rushed up 3080 points, bottomed out 3055 points, and closed at 3062 points before noon. The SSE 50, CSI 300, the Shenzhen Component Index fell, the Shenzhen Component Index, the ChiNext Board, the ChiNext Board, the CSI 500 and the CSI 1000 fell 0.62%, 0.88%, 0.40%, 1.31%, 2.20%, 1.76%, 0.72% and 0.85%. The ratio of individual stocks is 1286:3944, and the ratio of price limit is 53:12. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 572.5 billion, a decrease of 46.8 billion from the previous trading day.
After the Jedi counterattack of the indexes on Wednesday, yesterday, driven by the four major ETFs of the national team, the four major bank stocks, the five major heavyweight stocks and the CSI 50 and other large-cap stocks, the market broke through the 3,100-point integer barrier intraday, with a maximum of 3,102 points, and broke through the annual line of 3,096 points for the first time, which caught investors off guard. However, due to the continuous increase in the net outflow of funds from the north, small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rebounded and were strongly sold, and the indices fell rapidly yesterday afternoon, with 5 of the 11 indices rising and 6 falling.
However, this can be regarded as a collective statement by the national team after the release of the new national nine, which is to rush to the immortal index of 3100 points.
However, just as every time the integer level falls, after the heavyweight stocks lead the level, there will inevitably be a retracement consolidation. This morning, the four major bank stocks and a large number of private bank stocks continued to be strong, but the Growth Enterprise Market fell 2.2%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 2.15%, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board fell 1.76%, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks fell in a large area, and the ratio of individual stocks rose and fell by 1:3. Among the 9 stocks that fell limit, 7 are small and micro stocks, and the market value of the smallest 2 is 734 million for Chenguang Medical and 1.167 billion for Boxin shares. It seems that small and micro stocks are still the object of market abandonment.
At present, there are about 1,800 stocks with a market value of less than 5 billion, about 800 stocks with a market value of less than 3 billion, and about 180 stocks with a market value of less than 1 billion. People are especially worried that small and micro stocks with a market value of less than 3 billion yuan will not be able to withstand the wind and waves and will be increasingly marginalized by the market.
Recently, the market has paid more attention to: first, large-cap blue-chip stocks with low valuation and high dividends, because they are the medium and long-term capital allocation objects introduced in the future, such as large-cap index ETFs, public funds, private equity funds, social security funds, insurance funds, pension funds, bank wealth management funds and trust funds, relying on high dividends of more than 5%, you can achieve their one-year profit target. The second is high-quality and high-growth mid-cap stocks with new quality productivity. At present, the violent fluctuations and differentiation of various indices in the market are obviously related to the adjustment of positions and shares by institutions and investors. This is a change in people's investment philosophy brought about by the new national nine articles, and people must follow this trend.
At present, the market has regained the 20-day antenna at 3043 points and the five-week moving average at 3047 points in a row, returning to the bullish market. The daily candlestick downward trend has been reversed, and the weekly candlestick is also being repaired. This week is the first weekly yang line after the new country nine (last week closed at 3019 points), the market is generally good, showing its positive effect in the market, helping to restore investor confidence. As long as it withstands the impact of the poor performance report in the last 7 days of April, the market is likely to run upward in May and June.
Investors should wait patiently for the torture of the market in the last seven days, and at the end of the annual report release period, they can buy the new quality mid-cap stocks that have been mistakenly killed, the stock price has been adjusted to a low level, and the price-earnings ratio is only ten or twenty times the price-earnings ratio, so as to repair the situation that the capital card is far behind the broader market index.
According to my statistics on the holding costs of the eight varieties held by the national team, the four major bank stocks that began to buy on October 11 last year were Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, an increase of 20.8 percent from 4.60 to 5.56 yuan, Agricultural Bank of China from 3.50 to 4.53 yuan, an increase of 29.4 percent, Bank of China from 3.60 to 4.70 yuan, an increase of 30.5 percent, and China Construction Bank from 6.20 to 7.30 yuan, an increase of 18 percent. At the same time, the 510300 CSI 300 ETF, for example, has a cost of about 3.30 yuan, and currently has a profit of about 7%.
It can be seen that the national team has been a big winner, especially the four major bank stocks have nearly half of the chips in their hands, and they can also harvest 5% dividends in the next 2 months, which is a big winner among all institutions in the market, which is an important reason and confidence for them to do their best to maintain the 3000-point platform. Just as I called on investors at the end of last year to buy the four major bank stocks and the CSI 300 ETF that the national team has a heavy position in, the national team has never lost, has never lost, and always wins in the end, and the facts now prove this again. In the future, we can still continue this investment idea, and diving is to buy and make a steady win in the price difference.
Afternoon attention: Can the bottom of the market close above 3050 points? Can the top close above 3060 points? Can the four major ETFs of the national team protect the disk turn from weak to strong? Can the northbound funds narrow on the basis of the net outflow of 5.3 billion yuan in the morning? Can the disparity between individual stocks falling more and rising less at 1286:3944 be improved? Can the trading volume reach 900 billion?