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Li Zhilin: Heavyweight stocks suppressed the decline of the broader market index, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rose against the trend and rose in a large area

author:Li Zhilin
Li Zhilin: Heavyweight stocks suppressed the decline of the broader market index, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rose against the trend and rose in a large area

Heavyweight stocks weighed on the broader market index to fall, and small and mid-cap stocks bucked the trend and rose in a large area

Today's news:

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.03%, the Nasdaq up 0.03%, the S&P 500 down 0.04%, and popular technology stocks mixed, Tesla rose nearly 5%, the biggest one-day gain since March 18, Nvidia and Meta fell more than 1%, Arm rose more than 3%, and Google rose more than 1%. Lithium batteries, automobile manufacturing, industrial metals and mining sectors were among the top gainers, with Albemarle and Vale in the United States rising more than 6%, and Chilean Mining and Chemical Industry and Rio Tinto rising more than 4%. Gaming, U.S. infrastructure, and computer hardware sectors were among the top decliners, with Dell Technologies falling more than 4%, Supermicro Computer falling more than 2%, and U.S. Steel and Caterpillar falling more than 1%.

People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng met with visiting US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and exchanged views on economic and financial issues of common concern, such as the economic and financial situation, monetary policy, financial stability, sustainable finance, and international financial governance. Xuan Changneng, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, attended the meeting.

[A transaction of 29,700 yuan will suspend the treasury bonds with a scale of 26 billion yuan Industry insiders: reflecting the low liquidity of this bond] Yesterday's 21 treasury bonds were temporarily suspended in 14 intraday trading, or related to a transaction. According to the data matching details, at 13:42:46 on April 8, a transaction was concluded at a price of 90 yuan per piece, a volume of 33 lots, and a transaction amount of 29,700 yuan, so the price of the treasury bond plummeted by 10%. According to public information, 21 treasury bonds 14 are 30-year treasury bonds, with a listing date of October 20, 2021, a maturity date of October 18, 2051, an issuance scale of 26 billion yuan, a coupon rate (current) of 3.53%, the next interest payment date of April 18, and a current balance of 138 billion yuan. This is equivalent to a 29,700 yuan transaction that temporarily halts a 26 billion yuan treasury bond. Industry insiders said that a transaction suspended the intraday trading of this treasury bond, reflecting that the liquidity of this bond is not high, and a small number of abnormal transactions have a greater impact on the price. (China Securities News)

On April 8, India's Mumbai SENSEX30 Index rose to 74,796.79 points, hitting a new all-time high. Previously, the weighted index of the mainland Taiwan stock market closed up 1.21% at 20,466.57 points on April 2, closing at the highest level of the day and hitting a new record high.

As of April 8, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 792.258 billion yuan, an increase of 2.813 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 710.187 billion yuan, an increase of 2.173 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total financing balance of the two cities was 1502.445 billion yuan, an increase of 4.986 billion yuan from the previous trading day.

Li Zhilin: Heavyweight stocks suppressed the decline of the broader market index, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rose against the trend and rose in a large area

[Net inflow of northbound funds of 1.3 billion yuan] As of the close of trading at noon, the net inflow of northbound funds was 1.281 billion.

This morning, the market opened 3 points 3044 points lower, bottomed out 3033 points, rushed 3051 points, and closed at 3042 points before noon. The Shanghai Component 50, CSI 300 and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.29%, 0.25% and 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext and STAR Market were listed, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose 0.08%, 0.29%, 0.25%, 0.44% and 0.59%. The ratio of individual stocks is 3784:1418, and the ratio of price limit is 57:12. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 507.3 billion, a decrease of 93.4 billion from the previous trading day.

According to the new policy of the new village head, this year's annual report will set off a wave of dividends, and the dividend rate of banks, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, electricity, telecommunications operations, etc. will hit a record high. Based on the current share price, the banking sector has the highest dividend rate. As of April 7, the dividend rate of the four major bank stocks and the four major private bank stocks is as high as 5.8%, which means that in more than two months, the total annual interest rate of the bank for three years can be obtained.

Li Zhilin: Heavyweight stocks suppressed the decline of the broader market index, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rose against the trend and rose in a large area

Therefore, the four major bank stocks held by the national team not only rose instead of falling in the small stock market crash from January to early February this year, but also rose by more than 10% this year, outperforming all sectors of the entire market. Yesterday, amid a sharp market crash, bank stocks rose above the one-year bank rate in one day. More importantly, the national team holds the highest proportion of shares of the four major banks, especially the Bank of China, which accounts for 98% of the outstanding shares. Therefore, bank stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio of only 6 times and a price-to-book ratio of only 0.6 times so far have medium and long-term investment value (dividends can also be distributed several times a year).

Li Zhilin: Heavyweight stocks suppressed the decline of the broader market index, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rose against the trend and rose in a large area

However, the rise in bank stocks has also caused fear among small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks, especially poor performance stocks, Zhuang stocks, and demon stocks, which have dived in advance because they cannot stand the test of annual reports, and there were as many as 51 stocks that fell yesterday.

Today, there was a seesaw effect in the market, the four major ETFs and the four major bank stocks of the national team collectively pulled back, and the six major heavyweights of PetroChina, CNOOC, China Shenhua, Sinopec, China Mobile, and Moutai fell 1.75%, 2.42%, 0.45%, 2.15%, 1.09%, and 0.19% respectively. As a result, the four large-cap stock indexes CSI 50, SSE 50, CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index fell, while small and mid-cap stocks bucked the trend and rebounded in a large area. The ratio of individual stocks to the rise and fall is 3.8:1.4, and the number of stocks that fall has decreased significantly, and the market has a money-making effect. Northbound funds also had a net inflow of 1.28 billion in the morning after three consecutive days of net outflows.

It can be seen from the recent differentiation of market indices and individual stocks that the market is very entangled in the trend in April. Due to the low valuation and high dividends of heavyweight stocks, and the fact that several broad-based ETFs mostly fall into the hands of the national team, social security, insurance, public offerings, and foreign capital, it is difficult for the market to fall below 3,000 points. However, it is difficult to predict whether small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks, especially the sub-IPOs listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, ChiNext and STAR Market in the past two years, can withstand the strict audit of annual reports, and whether there will be a large number of face-changing stocks, underperforming stocks and loss-making stocks. As a result, they will be a negative burden to the index's rise. In this case, the market lacks the motivation and willingness to impact 3100 points, but tries to fluctuate below 3050 points to sort out the low dormant, waiting for the appearance of the poor performance report. This defensive strategy is undoubtedly sensible.

However, small- and mid-cap stocks are not synonymous with underperforming stocks, with more than half of them being high-quality high-growth stocks, and many of them being new productivity stocks. In addition to the annual report, there will also be a quarterly report to show that when the small and medium-capitalization stocks have fallen hard, it is also an opportunity to choose to buy the wrongly killed stocks on dips.

After all, this year is a rare period in history when the annual report in April is announced, and the expansion of new shares is tightened, and there have been no new shares for 2 consecutive months. Thursday will usher in the release of economic data for the first quarter, which is expected to be better than market expectations, which has formed a support for the broader market.

Li Zhilin: Heavyweight stocks suppressed the decline of the broader market index, and small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rose against the trend and rose in a large area

The trading volume in the morning decreased by 93.4 billion compared with yesterday morning, on the one hand, because of the shrinkage of bank stocks and large-cap heavyweight stocks, on the other hand, the selling pressure of small and medium-sized market capitalization stocks rebounded was smaller, because they were all meat cutting plates, and they were more cautious to sell. This state of shrinkage and volatility is likely to continue until late April.

Afternoon attention: Can the market close below the 10 antenna at 3041 points? Can the top close above the 20 antenna and the five-week moving average at 3051 points, and maintain the bullish market pattern? Can the eight varieties of the national team protect the plate maintain the state of consolidation? Can the decline of the six major heavyweight stocks converge? Can the net inflow of northbound funds in the morning increase on the basis of 1.28 billion? Can the situation of 3784:1418 stocks rising more and falling less can be maintained and expanded? Can the trading volume reach 850 billion?

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