After rising for 4 consecutive days, profits were taken back, and the shrinkage shock was consolidated by 3,100 points
Today's news:
[The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed up slightly] The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed slightly higher overnight, with the Dow up 0.38%, the Nasdaq up 0.35%, and the S&P 500 up 0.32%. Tesla surged more than 15%, the largest one-day increase since March 2020. Apple rose more than 2%, Nvidia and Amazon rose slightly, Google fell more than 3%, and Meta fell more than 2%.
[Caixin China Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 in April, hitting a new high since March 2023] The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April 2024 released today recorded 51.4, 0.3 percentage points higher than that in March, and hit a new high since March 2023, reflecting the continued acceleration of manufacturing production and business activities.
[National Bureau of Statistics: PMI in April was 50.4% in the expansion range for two consecutive months] According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and it was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a recovery and development trend.
[The policy encourages medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and institutions increase their holdings of high-dividend stocks in the first quarter] The new "National Nine Articles" strengthen the supervision of cash dividends of listed companies, and as a result, institutions have significantly increased their positions in high-dividend and large-capitalization company stocks in the first quarter of this year. According to the data, in the first quarter, the holdings of public funds in the main board, ChiNext and the Science and Technology Innovation Board were 74.84%, 16.13% and 9.03% respectively, compared with the fourth quarter of 2023, the proportion of the main board holdings increased by 3.16 percentage points, the proportion of the ChiNext board decreased by 1.39 percentage points, and the proportion of the Science and Technology Innovation Board decreased by 1.77 percentage points.
With the gradual disclosure of the first quarterly report, the overall performance of the securities industry has also begun to show its outline. After the strong earthquake of the A-share market and the counter-cyclical adjustment of the IPO, the revenue and net profit of securities companies declined. Unsurprisingly, the much-talked-about investment banking business revenue has continued to decline. Strengthening the foundation, repairing internal strength, and adjusting the direction have become the consensus of the current securities industry. "Under the counter-cyclical adjustment of IPOs, the investment banks of various brokerages have made efforts to issue regional financial bonds according to their own advantages, and some have focused on the refinancing of listed companies and enterprises to be counseled," the person in charge of the relevant business of a small and medium-sized brokerage firm in the north analyzed, "Of course, the Beijing Stock Exchange is also the focus." ”
[Vehicle sector lower, Changan Automobile hit the fall limit] Automobile stocks fell sharply in early trading, Changan Automobile hit the fall limit, China National Heavy Duty Truck, King Long Automobile, Jianghuai Automobile and so on have fallen sharply.
[Aowei Communication's Straight Line Diving Touches the Fall Limit and Stages the "Sky Floor"] The military informatization concept stock Aowei Communication's straight line diving touched the fall limit, staged the "Sky Floor" market, and the transaction was nearly 500 million yuan. The stock opened with a daily limit in the morning, after coming out of the 6th consecutive board.
[The central bank's net investment in the open market is 438 billion yuan] The central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 440 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 1.80%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase today, a net investment of 438 billion yuan was realized.
As of April 29, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 787.327 billion yuan, an increase of 3.461 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 699.104 billion yuan, an increase of 2.189 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1486.431 billion yuan, an increase of 5.65 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
[Net outflow of northbound funds of 3.2 billion yuan] As of the close of trading at noon, the net outflow of northbound funds was 3.249 billion.
This morning, the market opened 3 points 3110 points lower, rushed 3123 points, bottomed out 3105 points, and closed at 3109 points before noon. The Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.03%, and the CSI 300, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, the ChiNext Board, the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the CSI 500, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.20%, 0.12%, 0.63%, 1.25%, 1.10%, 0.59%, and 0.94%. The change-to-change ratio of individual stocks is 1573:3640, and the change-limit ratio is 53:30. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 693.9 billion, a decrease of 104.7 billion from the previous trading day.
Under the joint efforts of northbound funds and the national team, the market rose for 4 consecutive days, stood at 3100 points for 2 consecutive days, and traded more than one trillion yuan for 3 consecutive days.
Today is the closing day of April, and then the May Day holiday is 5 days, and the profit disk and the solution of the hedge have been thrown, resulting in a rise of 3123 points this morning and then falling, shrinking and shocking.
At present, the vast majority of investors are optimistic about the red May market, and some people are even optimistic about the big bull market. But I think there is almost no possibility of a big bull, and to a large extent, it will be a slow bull, with a high probability of a "splint" market at 3100-3200 points.
I have different views on two popular views on the market:
The first is that "the 'bull market flag-bearer' brokerage stocks will make a comeback", which I dare not agree. Brokerages have become the standard-bearers of the bull market in the past, and in the 2023 annual report just released, seventy percent of brokerages have declined, and the situation in 2024 will be even worse. Because in the past, the majority of the income of securities companies was investment banks, and they relied on the great leap forward in the expansion of new shares, the issuance of three highs, high-priced refinancing, the refinancing of restricted shares, and securities lending to make money. After the new village chief took office and the nine articles of the new country were released, the bulk of the brokerage's financial road was blocked. In the four months of this year, there were only 36 new listings, compared with more than 100 in the same period last year, and the amount of financing also fell by 74%. The issuance of the three highs is no longer available, the refinancing opening is also tightening, the refinancing of restricted shares is completely banned, and the securities lending and borrowing are changed to T+1 transactions, resulting in a large number of investment bankers losing their jobs or changing jobs. Although the top management requires the brokerage to become bigger and stronger, it is only a merger of big and small, which has limited performance improvement, and is just a transactional opportunity. In short, the era of relying on brokerage stocks to drive the stock market is gone forever. This morning, brokerage stocks fell across the board.
The second is that "real estate stocks will become the engine of a new bull market", which is unlikely in my opinion. The crux of China's current real estate market is that there is a surplus of houses, housing prices are too high, and effective purchasing power is declining. In the past few years, real estate companies have been overwhelmed by their excessive pursuit of expansion, and they have fallen into financial difficulties. Although many places have issued canceling the purchase restriction policy, the best effect can only be to reduce the losses of real estate companies and stabilize real estate stocks. The conditions for the full revitalization of real estate enterprises are not yet in place, at least until after 2025. The opportunity for real estate stocks lies in asset restructuring, transformation and upgrading. Yesterday, 18 real estate stocks rose and stopped, and today is gone. Therefore, it remains to be seen how sustainable the real estate stock market will be.
The opportunity of the red May market is mainly "the two ends of the dumbbell":
On the one hand, there are large-cap blue-chip stocks with low valuations and high dividends, attracting more and more long-term funds to enter the market. For example, today the big four banks announced interim dividends, that is, dividends twice a year. In 2023, the profit dividend rate will be as high as more than 5.5%, and if there is another medium-term dividend, it will exceed 7%, which is extremely attractive to long-term funds. In addition to insurance funds, foreign capital, pension funds, and social security funds, it is more attractive to residents' bank wealth management funds. At present, the one-year bank interest rate is 1.45%, the three-year bank interest rate is 1.95%, and the five-year bank interest rate is 2.0%, and the expected return of wealth management products is about 3%. According to the latest data, from 2020 to the end of 2023, residents added 58.24 trillion yuan in bank deposits, more than the sum of the 10 years from 2009 to 2019, with a total of 140 trillion yuan, and 30 trillion yuan in bank wealth management funds. If these huge household savings funds change their minds and invest in bank stocks, the returns will far exceed the deposit interest rate by several times. There is no need to mobilize, just look at the 2% of 5-year certificates of deposit that need to queue up all night to buy, and you can see the current strong demand from residents for stable and high returns.
At the other end of the dumbbell is the mid-cap stock of new quality productivity. I think this will be the mainstream of Red May. Those mid-cap stocks whose stock prices have been mistakenly killed, over-falling, and have excellent performance, with only a dozen times the price-earnings ratio, and have core assets and high-growth new quality productivity, abound. In particular, the national team, social security funds, pension funds, and foreign stocks that appear in the top ten shareholders at the same time will be sought after by the market, and their reliability and safety are far better than those of poor performance stocks.
Today is the last day of April, and generally speaking, the market will close above 3100 points. If it continues to decline in the afternoon, or even falls below 3100 points, it is an excellent opportunity to open a position and increase its position, and there is a high probability that it will win after the May Day holiday. Because those who dare to buy before the long holiday have the opportunity to reimburse all the holiday expenses to the post-holiday chasers.
Afternoon attention: Can the market close above 3,100 points? Can the eight varieties of the national team's heavy positions stabilize the market? Can the northbound funds converge on the basis of the net outflow of 3.2 billion yuan in the morning? Can the situation of 1573:3640 individual stocks falling more and rising less can be improved? Can the trading volume exceed one trillion yuan?