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Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

author:Political Commissar Lu
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

Southeast Asia

In March 2024, in terms of growth, the economic growth of Singapore and Vietnam in the first quarter of this year hit a new high, and Thailand's economic growth forecast was lowered. In terms of inflation, rising food prices have pushed the inflation rate of six Southeast Asian countries up for the second time, and Vietnam's inflation problem is worth paying attention to. The labor market is generally stable, and the unemployment rate in the Philippines is expected to rise.

On the policy front, the Philippines and the Bank of Thailand both decided to keep their benchmark interest rates unchanged at their latest interest rate meetings, while Indonesia's e-commerce, Thailand's electric vehicles and healthcare, and Vietnam's semiconductor and renewable energy industries will be supported by the government.

In terms of financial markets, the bond markets of the six Southeast Asian countries turned from net outflows to net inflows, of which Thailand saw significant inflows, the stock market maintained a net outflow of funds, and the foreign exchange market continued to depreciate against the US dollar.

In terms of regional politics, ASEAN is concerned about building bilateral relations with major countries outside the region while continuing to promote regional integration, while Thailand's political arena is still uncertain due to the outcome of the general election, Vietnam's president has readjusted, and the Philippines has continued to promote Philippine-US relations.

In terms of China-ASEAN bilateral relations, Indonesian President-elect Prabowo visited China upon invitation, and political interaction continued to run at a high level, while ASEAN continued to consolidate its position as China's largest trading partner, and practical cooperation in various fields helped China's influence in Southeast Asia increase.

This article provides an overview of the macroeconomic and political situation in Southeast Asia[1] (mainly Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines) in March 2024, and reviews the recent ASEAN relations between China and ASEAN. 1. Regional Economic Situation 1.1 Economic Growth In the first quarter of 2024, the economic growth of Singapore and Vietnam hit a recent high. Singapore's GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2024 was 2.7%, the highest level in nearly a year, and the macroeconomic recovery continues. Vietnam's GDP grew by 5.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, the highest level since 2020.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

In March 2024, the manufacturing PMI trends of the six Southeast Asian countries diverged significantly, with Indonesia maintaining strong expansion and Malaysia's manufacturing industry continuing to be under pressure. Indonesia's manufacturing industry continued to expand due to the sharp increase in domestic demand, with the manufacturing PMI reaching 54.2 in March 2024, a three-year high, while the industrial confidence index also reached 53.05, continuing to rise from the previous month. The manufacturing PMIs in Singapore and the Philippines have also remained in expansion territory for seven consecutive quarters. Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam manufacturing PMI is below the boom and wither line, but the growth momentum of Thailand's manufacturing industry has increased month-on-month, while the Malaysian manufacturing PMI has been below 50 for 13 consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continues to be under pressure.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

In terms of macroeconomic outlook, Thailand's economic growth forecast has been revised down sharply. In April 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released their Global and Asian Economic Outlook reports, respectively. In its latest report, the IMF slightly raised its 2024 real GDP growth forecast for Malaysia and the Philippines, keeping Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam unchanged, while sharply lowering Thailand's 2024 real GDP growth forecast by 1.7 percentage points to 2.7% from 4.4%, citing delays in the country's 2024 budget approval, lower exports and public investment, and rising expectations of public debt that could weigh on the country's further economic recovery. In the latest report, the ADB only maintained the real GDP growth forecast for Indonesia and Vietnam, and lowered the real GDP growth forecast for the ASEAN region and Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines in 2024, of which Thailand's real GDP growth forecast for 2024 was lowered by 0.7 percentage points, which is also the largest reduction in the ASEAN region.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

1.2 Inflation In March 2024, rising food prices drove a second rise in inflation in major Southeast Asian economies. In March 2024, the headline CPI of major Southeast Asian economies rose month-on-month as food, especially rice, remained elevated. Among them, Vietnam's CPI in March was 3.97%, the highest among the six Southeast Asian countries. The year-on-year increase in the country's CPI in March was mainly due to the country's current strong domestic demand and tightening supply and demand, which led to a 21.7%, 10.6% and 9.4% year-on-year increase in rice, tap water and electricity prices, respectively. Thailand's headline CPI has fallen for six consecutive months in March 2024 due to the lower cost of energy and living, and the current inflation level is the lowest among ASEAN countries, but the year-on-year decline in CPI has narrowed for two consecutive months, and the Ministry of Commerce forecasts the country's headline inflation rate in the range of -0.3% to 1.7% in 2024.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

The inflation outlook of six Southeast Asian countries in 2024 is divergent, and Vietnam's inflation problem is worth paying attention to. In April 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the World Economic Outlook report, which believes that the inflation rate in Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and the Philippines in 2024 will be significantly lower than in 2023, while the inflation rate in Malaysia and Vietnam will rebound from the previous year, and Vietnam will replace the Philippines as the country with the highest inflation rate in the region.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

1.3 Labour Market The outlook for the labour market in the six Southeast Asian countries in 2024 is generally stable, with the unemployment rate in the Philippines expected to rise. The latest World Economic Outlook report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that in 2024, the unemployment rate of the six Southeast Asian countries, except for the Philippines, will remain stable and declining. In the next two years, the Philippines' unemployment rate is likely to rise from 4.4% in 2023 to 5.1% in 2024 due to dependence on unstable employment patterns, macroeconomic fluctuations and lagging labor market training development, and surpass Indonesia to become the economy with the highest unemployment rate among the six countries in 2025.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

2. Macro Policy 2.1 Monetary Policy Both the Philippines and the Bank of Thailand decided to keep their benchmark interest rates unchanged at their latest interest rate meetings. On 8 April, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged due to the uptick in inflation in March and Q2 inflation expectations above the target range. The country's central bank will continue to review the inflation outlook and prudently adjust its monetary policy. The market believes that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is unlikely to cut its benchmark interest rate earlier than the Fed and will instead choose to maintain the 100 basis point to 150 basis point spread between the Fed's interest rate and the country's target reverse repo rate or policy rate to ease the pressure on the peso's exchange rate volatility against the US dollar. On April 10, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-2 to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, the third consecutive time that the Bank of Thailand remained inactive and deepened its rift with the government. The Thai government, for its part, believes that the country's macro economy needs to reduce borrowing costs to boost credit and consumption, ending a decade-long growth rate of less than 2%. The Bank of Thailand said that Thailand's current monetary policy is sufficient to support economic growth, and the Thai baht will continue to maintain the current interest rate level to observe the exchange rate as volatility rises and depreciates further against the US dollar.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

2.2 Industrial Policy ASEAN strengthens economic cooperation to promote economic alignment and resilience. The 30th ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting (AEMR-30) was held in Luang Prabang, Laos, from March 8 to 9. The meeting adopted 14 priority economic cooperation initiatives proposed by Laos, the rotating chair of ASEAN, in the areas of trade facilitation, customs, investment, finance, competition, intellectual property, e-commerce, and approved the ASEAN Service Facilitation Framework (ASFF). The meeting also focused on the upgrading of the ASEAN Agreement on Trade in Goods, the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community Sustainable Development Initiative, and ASEAN's response strategy to the new problems of the ASEAN Plus One Free Trade Agreement. The Indonesian government will give more opportunities for private investment in future strategic projects and help upgrade the e-commerce industry. The Indonesian government recently identified 14 new National Strategic Projects (PSNs) in the areas of transport, infrastructure, energy, health, telecommunications, food security, tourism and education. The Indonesian government hopes to promote the balanced development of the country through investment in related fields. There are reports that the new PSN development will be fully invested by private investors, and the current President Joko Widodo has recently expressed his desire for greater cooperation between the government and the private sector in financing infrastructure projects. As the largest e-commerce market in Southeast Asia, Indonesia's e-commerce transactions have continued to grow in recent years. The country's trade minister said that in the future, the government will introduce more relevant e-commerce support measures to help improve the construction of the e-commerce ecosystem, provide more opportunities for the development of small, medium and micro enterprises, and inject momentum into the development of the industrial economy. Thailand is increasing investment support for electric vehicles and medical care, and plans to address overcapacity in the steel industry. As the largest automobile producer and exporter in Southeast Asia, Thailand is determined to establish itself as an electric vehicle production hub in the region, and the country has recently announced new measures to support the development of electric commercial vehicles, including tax breaks and support for investment in energy storage system construction, to help the country achieve its carbon neutrality goal as soon as possible. As an aging society accelerates and the prevalence of chronic diseases rises, the Thai government proposes to speed up the improvement of laws and regulations on the supply of pharmaceuticals and medical services, simplify processes, remove obstacles, and attract foreign investment to accelerate the development of generic drugs, reduce import costs, and reduce the financial burden on the country. In addition, as Thailand's steel industry has been hit by foreign products, the Thai Industrial Institute has suggested that the Thai Ministry of Industry prioritize solving the problem of overcapacity and tighten the expansion plan of the steel industry, while the Ministry of Commerce should initiate anti-dumping and countervailing investigations and suspend import licenses. Vietnam is prioritizing investment in semiconductors and renewables, while accelerating the large-scale deployment of 5G. According to the Vietnamese government, Vietnam is currently prioritizing foreign investment in the fields of green economy, innovation, electric vehicles, and deep processing of minerals, especially in the fields of semiconductors and renewable energy. According to Technavio Research, Vietnam's semiconductor market is expected to grow by US$1.65 billion by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of about 6.5%[2]. At the same time, the Vietnamese government released the "National Information and Communication Infrastructure Construction Plan to 2050" in January, and in order to achieve the planning goal of 5G network coverage of 99% of the population by 2030, Vietnam's three major telecom companies are accelerating the large-scale deployment and application of 5G. 3. Financial market In March 2024, the bond markets of the six Southeast Asian countries turned from net outflows to net inflows, the stock markets maintained net outflows since the second half of 2023, and the foreign exchange market continued to depreciate against the US dollar. In the bond market, funds turned net and the 10-year Treasury yield was volatile. In February 2024, the bond markets of six Southeast Asian countries recorded net inflows for the first time since January 2023 due to a net inflow of US$510 million from Thailand's bond market, while the bond markets of the remaining five countries continued to see net inflows. In terms of yields, the overall volatility of the 10-year government bond yields of the six countries in March 2024 was limited, and the nominal yields of the 10-year government bonds of Thailand and Malaysia decreased slightly compared with February. Vietnam's 10-year government bond yield rose as CPI in March was unchanged from February.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

In the stock market, the net outflow of funds remained in a state of net outflow, and the stock indexes of the six countries continued to fluctuate and diverge. In March 2024, Singapore announced that its GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 2.7%, the highest level in a year, and the macroeconomic growth forecast for the whole year was revised upwards in tandem. As a result, Singapore's STI index has gradually moved higher, but it has not yet recovered to the level at the beginning of the year. On February 28, the Vietnamese government held a meeting on the deployment of securities market development tasks in 2024, calling for upgrading the country's stock market from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market by 2025. According to the World Bank's estimates, the achievement of this goal will help increase foreign investors' investment in the Vietnamese market, expand the size of the Vietnamese stock market, and strengthen liquidity, which is expected to attract an additional US$25 billion in 2030[3]. Buoyed by the news, Vietnam's VNI index fluctuated higher in March, making it the strongest first-quarter stock index among the six Southeast Asian countries, but fell significantly in April. After hitting a record high of 7,433.32 points on March 14, Indonesia's stock market has basically fallen back to the level at the beginning of the year due to rising inflation and controversy over the presidential election results. Stock indices in Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia remained volatile in the middle of the month, with limited gains and losses overall.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

In the foreign exchange market, the currencies of the six Southeast Asian countries continued to depreciate against the US dollar as a whole. In March 2024, the U.S. dollar index showed a downward trend first and then an upward trend due to the downward revision of interest rate cut expectations, so the currencies of the six Southeast Asian countries appreciated first against the U.S. dollar and then depreciated, and the overall depreciation trend remained unchanged. In view of the macroeconomic impact of the continued depreciation of the local currency, Bank Negara Malaysia said that it will continue to promote the use of the local currency in import and export trade and reduce its dependence on the US dollar.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

Looking ahead, the progress of macroeconomic recovery, the degree of inflation recovery, the node and magnitude of monetary policy adjustments in Europe and the United States, and the direction and pace of monetary policy adjustments by domestic monetary authorities will continue to affect the volatility of the financial markets of the six Southeast Asian countries. IV. Regional Political Situation 4.1 Regional Politics ASEAN held an informal meeting of defense ministers. On March 5, the 2024 ASEAN Defense Ministers' Informal Meeting was held in Luang Prabang, Laos. Under the theme of "Working Together for Peace, Stability and Strength in ASEAN", the ASEAN defense ministers exchanged views on the strategic deployment of the post-2025 ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting to address current and future security challenges, and unanimously agreed and adopted the joint statement of the ASEAN defense ministers on the successful implementation of the ASEAN Political and Security Community 2025 Master Plan. ASEAN will face three major challenges in 2024. Beginda Pakpahan, a global political and economic analyst at the University of Edinburgh in the United Kingdom, recently wrote a special article on "Challenges Facing ASEAN in 2024", pointing out that ASEAN will face three major challenges in 2024: first, the impact of the intensifying competition between major powers and geopolitical games on ASEAN's status and the multipolar pattern of the world, and secondly, potential regional conflicts may hinder ASEAN from promoting economic cooperation with partners or countries outside the region. and efforts to promote the process of regional integration in ASEAN, and finally, the impact of the Myanmar issue on ASEAN. Germany holds the "Southeast Asia Week" with the intention of strengthening ASEAN-EU economic and trade relations. In mid-to-late March 2024, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held the "Southeast Asia Week" leaders' meeting in Berlin, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and Thai Prime Minister Saita visited Germany successively. Malaysia, Germany's second-largest supplier of semiconductors after Taiwan Province of China, and talks on areas such as migration, free trade agreements and raw material imports, Anwar emphasized the country's status as ASEAN's new energy and green technology hub. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos said that the Philippines shares a common desire with Germany in "diversifying production and market value chains to reduce risks" and hopes that Germany and Europe will strengthen their participation in Indo-Pacific security affairs, while Scholz said that the two sides will strengthen maritime cooperation. During his visit to Germany, Thai Prime Minister Saita hoped that Germany and other European countries would expand their investment in Thailand, especially in the fields of renewable energy promotion and electric vehicles, and also suggested further enhancing the bilateral partnership and signing the Thailand-EU Free Trade Agreement as soon as possible. Germany wants to diversify its economy and trade by strengthening its ties with Southeast Asian countries, while Southeast Asian countries want to further attract European investment and promote sustainable economic recovery, but the two sides are divided on geopolitical issues such as human rights and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 4.2 Country Politics The results of Indonesia's presidential election have been announced, but controversy remains. On March 20, after Indonesia's Election Commission announced the official results of the 2024 presidential election, both the No. 1 Anies and No. 3 Ganjar teams filed complaints with the Constitutional Court, claiming that there was interference at the state level in the election process, and therefore asked the court to order the revocation of President-elect Prabowo's qualifications and the re-election. On March 27 and 28, Indonesia's Constitutional Court held hearings on the dispute over the election results, while some people held demonstrations [4]. Thailand's opposition party core is in danger of disbanding. On 12 March, Thailand's Central Election Commission passed a resolution requesting the Constitutional Court to order the dissolution of the Far Forward Party and to deprive its members of the party's executive committee of their political rights on the grounds that the party was suspected of amending article 112 of the Penal Code, in violation of article 92 of the Organic Law on Political Parties, which gives the Constitutional Court the right to dissolve any political party deemed a threat to the constitutional monarchy. Earlier, on January 31, Thailand's Constitutional Court ruled that the proposal to amend Article 112 of the Penal Code to offend the monarchy during last year's election campaign was unconstitutional and subversive of state power. The core of Thailand's opposition party could collapse. Vietnam's presidency has been readjusted, and political changes have continued. On March 21, a meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam agreed to remove Vo Van Thuong from the post of president and announced that Vice President Vo Thi Anh Xuan would be appointed acting president. In March 2023, Vo Van Thuong was elected president of Vietnam to succeed Nguyen Xuan Phuc, who had previously resigned, and was originally in office until 2026, making it the shortest-serving president in Vietnam's history. Vietnam's leadership has undergone a number of major changes in recent years, many of which are related to the country's anti-corruption efforts. With the resignation of Vo Van Thanh, Vietnam's political situation could fall into further turmoil, which could affect foreign investor confidence. The Philippines has comprehensively strengthened political, economic and trade cooperation between the Philippines and the United States. On March 11, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce made an official visit to the Philippines and said that U.S. companies, including Google Asia Pacific, Visa, United Airlines and KKR, would announce investments of more than $1 billion in the Philippines in areas such as solar energy, electric vehicles and digitalization. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, on March 19, where the two sides emphasized the importance of the U.S.-Philippines alliance to security in the Indo-Pacific region and reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring international law in the East China Sea. In addition, according to the White House, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plan to hold a tripartite summit at the White House on April 11, and a bilateral meeting between Philippine and U.S. leaders will be held on the same day. In addition, at the end of April and the beginning of May, the United States and the Philippines will hold a "shoulder-to-shoulder" military exercise. The Myanmar government and the People's Armed Forces held a new round of peace talks. Recently, the Myanmar government and the three northern Myanmar people's armed forces alliance held a new round of peace talks in Kunming, Yunnan Province, and both sides reached a consensus that border crossing management and trade will be carried out under the management of the governments of Myanmar and China. At the same time, however, the United States has provided nearly $400 million in aid to Myanmar democracy groups under the Myanmar Act, which was passed by both houses of Congress in December 2023 to provide assistance to Aung San Suu Kyi's National Unity Government and its affiliates. V. ASEAN-China Relations 5.1 Political Relations High-level exchanges have been frequent, and political mutual trust has been deepened and solidified. At the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indonesia's President-elect Prabowo Subiyando visited China from March 31 to April 2. During the visit, President Xi Jinping held talks with Prabowo, Premier Li Qiang met with him, and the leaders of the two countries exchanged views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern. The two sides took this visit as an opportunity to further consolidate their traditional friendship, deepen all-round strategic cooperation, promote the synergy between the development strategies of China and Indonesia, and create a model of common destiny, solidarity and cooperation and common development among major developing countries, so as to inject more stability and positive energy into regional and global development. Inter-party exchanges have promoted the in-depth development of relations between China and ASEAN countries. As an important part of the development of state-to-state relations, inter-party exchanges will help enhance the understanding and recognition of China's policies and propositions, consolidate China's partnership with all parties, and serve the overall diplomatic goal of building a community with a shared future for mankind. On March 22, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the Foreign Affairs Office of the CPC Central Committee, met with a delegation led by Le Hoi Trung, Secretary of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the CPC Central Committee, in Beijing. Malaysia's prime minister criticized the United States and the West for forcing other countries to choose sides. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim Ibrahim Situd Anwar Ibrahim criticized the United States and the West for forcing other countries to choose sides when attending the 2024 ASEAN-Australia Special Summit in Melbourne, pointing out that there is no problem between Malaysia and China, and the United States and other Western countries should not hinder Malaysia and China from developing friendly relations. China is regarded as the most influential country in Southeast Asia. According to the ASEAN Research Center of the Yusof Isa Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, the "Southeast Asia State Report: 2024" recently released shows that 59.5% of respondents believe that China is "the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia", significantly ahead of other countries, and China is also in a leading position in terms of strategic and political influence in Southeast Asia. The report also shows that Southeast Asian respondents are generally optimistic about the prospects of relations with China, and more than half of the respondents believe that their country's relations with China will improve or significantly improve in the next three years. [5]

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

5.2 Economic and Trade Relations 5.2.1 Bilateral Trade In terms of trade in goods, ASEAN has further consolidated its position as China's largest trading partner. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in March 2024, the total value of trade between China and ASEAN was US$84.84 billion, down 5.36% year-on-year. Among them, China's exports to ASEAN were US$52.87 billion, down 6.25 percent year-on-year, and imports from ASEAN were US$31.97 billion, down 3.86 percent year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in the total import and export volume and imports between China and ASEAN was greater than the decline in China's total imports and exports and total imports over the same period, and the decline in exports was smaller than the decline in China's total exports over the same period. At the same time, the year-on-year decline in the total import and export volume, exports and imports between China and ASEAN was smaller than the year-on-year decline in the corresponding items of bilateral trade between China and the European Union, the second largest trading partner (-12.24%, -14.94%, -7.31%) and the third largest trading partner the United States (-15.38%, -15.9% and -14.3%). In the first quarter of 2024, the total value of trade between China and ASEAN was US$224.60 billion in US dollar terms, up 2.8% year-on-year. Among them, exports were 135.57 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, and imports were 89.03 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The year-on-year growth rate of total imports and exports between China and ASEAN was higher than that of China's total foreign trade (1.5%) and exports (1.5%), and the year-on-year growth rate of imports was slightly lower than the year-on-year growth rate of China's imports (1.5%). During the same period, China's total imports and exports, exports and import trade with the European Union and the United States all showed a year-on-year decline. ASEAN continues to be China's largest trading partner, and its share in China's foreign trade has further increased to 15.7%. In terms of countries, bilateral trade between China and the Philippines continued to decline. Among ASEAN members, the top three trading partners with China are Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, while Thailand and Singapore rank fourth and fifth. In March 2024, in terms of exports, China's exports to Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia recorded a slight year-on-year increase in US dollar terms (the same below), with exports to Indonesia and the Philippines falling by 25.4% and 25.3% respectively, and exports to Thailand falling by 5.1%, while imports from Singapore increased by 14.8% year-on-year, imports from Vietnam increased by 18.9% year-on-year, imports from Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines all decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, and imports from Malaysia decreased slightly by 3.5%. In the first quarter of 2024, China's total bilateral imports and exports with Malaysia and Vietnam increased by 6.5% and 18.6% year-on-year, while the total bilateral trade with the other four countries showed a downward trend, of which the total import and export trade with the Philippines decreased by 13.0% year-on-year, marking the 12th consecutive month of negative year-on-year growth.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

5.2.2 Two-way investment The China-Laos Railway drives the economic development of northeastern Thailand. At present, the China-Laos Railway has fully opened passenger and freight services on the Kunming-Vientiane line, which will have a direct positive impact on trade and investment in the areas connected by the railway in northeastern Thailand. In the next five years, investment flows in northeastern Thailand are expected to reach 760 billion baht, of which 640 billion will be government infrastructure investment and another 120 billion will be private investment. China and Vietnam have strengthened bilateral economic and trade cooperation. On March 29, 2024, the Vietnam-China Trade, Investment and Industrial Cooperation Matchmaking Exchange Conference was held in Hanoi, Vietnam. In the past two years, the political mutual trust between China and Vietnam has been continuously enhanced, the pragmatic cooperation has been deepened, the industrial and supply chains are deeply integrated, and Vietnam's favorable international trade environment and superior investment environment have provided a good platform for Chinese enterprises to participate in the global industrial chain, and the direct investment of Chinese enterprises in Vietnam has increased significantly. 5.2.3 Bilateral and multilateral agreements China and ASEAN will work together to promote the development of the RCEP mechanism. On March 26-27, the sixth meeting of the Joint Committee of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was held in Beijing. As the non-ASEAN chair of the RCEP in 2024, China and Indonesia co-chaired and chaired the meeting. All parties held in-depth consultations on the procedures for new members to join the agreement, and agreed to improve the overall implementation level of the agreement through more economic and technical cooperation, so that the agreement can better benefit enterprises and people of all countries. During the meeting, China and ASEAN exchanged views on promoting the negotiation of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) version 3.0. 5.3 Practical Cooperation in Multiple Fields The trade fair provides a new platform for China-ASEAN cooperation. On March 13, the 6th China (Indonesia) Trade Fair (hereinafter referred to as "Indonesia Exhibition") opened in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia. More than 35 industries and nearly 400 companies from Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other places formed more than 500 booths to participate in the exhibition, and tens of thousands of Chinese-made products were unveiled in Jakarta. As an important platform for economic and trade exchanges between China and Indonesia, the Indonesia Exhibition has attracted the attention of many local mainstream business associations, business professionals, media and professional buyers. The Indonesia exhibition also cooperated with local business associations, industry experts and representatives of leading enterprises to hold more than 13 high-end exchange forums and business matchmaking meetings integrating industry foresight and in-depth discussions, building a high-standard industry exchange platform in a diversified interactive form, and effectively enhancing the in-depth dialogue and exchanges between Chinese and Indonesian entrepreneurs.

Note: [1] In view of ASEAN as a regional political and economic organization, the term "Southeast Asia" is used to refer to the region in this report, unless otherwise noted and discussed in the discussion of bilateral and multilateral relations, for ease of reading and understanding. Although there are 11 ASEAN member states as of now, since Timor-Leste was only accepted as the 11th member by ASEAN in November 2022, the subsequent statistical analysis of "ASEAN" in this report refers to the former 10 ASEAN countries, excluding Timor-Leste. [2] Economic and Commercial Office of the Chinese Embassy in Vietnam, "Vietnamese Prime Minister Stresses Vietnam's Priority in Attracting Foreign Investment in the Semiconductor Sector", [EB/OL], 2024/03/18[2024/03/28], http://vn.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/202403/2024030303482039.shtml. [3] Economic and Commercial Office of the Chinese Embassy in Vietnam, "Vietnam's Stock Market May Attract Additional Funds of US$25 Billion in 2030", [EB/OL], 2024/03/18[2024/03/28], http://vn.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jmxw/202403/20240303482044.shtml. [4] Latest news: On April 22, 2024 local time, Indonesia's Constitutional Court dismissed the lawsuit against the results of the 2024 general election. [5] Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China, "Singapore Think Tank Report: China Seen as the Most Influential Country in Southeast Asia," Xinhua News Agency, [EB/OL], 2024/04/03[2024/04/07], https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202404/content_6943481.htm.

Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)
Southeast Asian Studies | Rising Inflation, Political Disruption - Southeast Asia Macro Situation Tracking (Issue 2, 2024)

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