In the Middle East, where the geopolitical situation is extremely complicated, Shiite leader Iran was originally at odds with Sunni leader Saudi Arabia and alien Israel. Since the reconciliation of Saudi Arabia and Iran of the century, the "Shiite arc" created by Iran is no longer mainly aimed at Saudi Arabia, and Yemen's Houthis and Iraqi militias have turned their guns on Israel.
In general, there is no direct conflict between Iran and Israel, and Israel mainly strikes pro-Iranian forces or Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces active in Syria or other Middle Eastern countries. Iran generally does not retaliate in person, but remotely controls Hamas, Allah, the Houthis and Iraqi militias to attack Israeli and American targets, and Iran and Israel have long maintained a tacit understanding.
Now, with the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria by Israeli warplanes, the tacit understanding between the two sides is likely to be broken, because the Iranian side believes that the bombing of its embassy by the Israeli army is tantamount to a "declaration of war" and must respond directly to Israel. According to a reference report on April 4, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on the 3rd that Israel would be "slapped in the face".
After Khamenei's speech, Iran's military moves were frequent. Recently, according to videos posted on social platforms, Iran's military forces are deploying a large number of mobile air defense systems, apparently in preparation for a broader conflict with Israel. At the same time, a large number of Iranian military vehicles have entered Syria loaded with various weapons, including vehicle-mounted mobile ballistic missile launchers.
On the 5th, CNN, CBS and U.S. intelligence issued warnings that hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones have entered positions and will launch a full-scale strike against Israel. The U.S. side warned Iran not to attack the U.S. or U.S.-related targets.
Israel, the main culprit in the bombing of the Iranian embassy, was very nervous, and the Israeli military announced on the 3rd that it had decided to call up reserve soldiers to strengthen its air defense. According to a report by the US "Wall Street Journal" on the 4th, the Israeli military jammed the GPS signal to eliminate the threat.
At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken a tough stance, threatening Iran with a hellish fate if it attacks Israel. Netanyahu's toughness shows that the Israeli army is ready to fight back, but also to a certain extent shows that the situation facing Israel has deteriorated sharply, and the possibility of Iran personally attacking Israel has become very high, and Netanyahu is trying to show toughness to force Iran to compromise.
According to US intelligence, Iran could strike at Israel within 48 hours. If it were Iraqi militias or the Houthis, there was a high probability of retaliation within 48 hours. However, Iran is a big country in the Middle East, and there are many factors that a big country considers.
This includes discussing the intensity of countermeasures, what specific weapons to use to fight back, what effects need to be achieved, and how Iran should respond if Israel retaliates after retaliation? In addition, Iran also needs to inform Russia, the United States, and other world powers of its attack on Israel through diplomatic channels to see what position these countries hold. These questions need to be thought about and planned in advance, and it takes a long time.
Iran is an Islamic country, and the Islamic festival of Eid al-Fitr is still going on and is expected to end on the evening of April 9. Iran's strikes during Ramadan are unlikely, and it is estimated that the storm will hit Israel after Ramadan ends.
(Text/Woo Tsai)