At the beginning of April, after the Qingming holiday, the domestic pig and grain markets have reappeared in new changes! Among them, in the grain market, grain prices have "dropped sharply", and corn and wheat have shown a downward trend. However, in the hog market, pig prices rose against the trend, and the market showed a performance of rising across the board. Pig prices and grain prices are both hot and cold, and the market trend is differentiated, but the rise in pig prices may lack stamina!
In the grain market, at present, corn, wheat are both under pressure to fall, the corn market by the grassroots volume and demand follow-up is not good, although the market policy is still good, but due to the poor demand to undertake, the price is weak adjustment. In terms of wheat, the downward trend of wheat prices is mainly due to the lack of consumption, but the rotation of wheat in grain depots is positive, the market supply is strong and the demand is relatively weak, and the price is weak! The specific analysis is as follows:
In the corn market, the domestic corn spot quotation is stable and small, the local amount increases, and the price is weakly adjusted! In the northeast, farmers are busy with spring ploughing, the pace of grain sales at the grassroots level has slowed down, the pace of traders has slowed down, the price mentality still exists, and the corn supply in the circulation stage is general, but due to the lack of ability of enterprises to undertake, the deep processing quotation is stable!
Among them, the corn quotation in the Heijiliao area has stabilized in an all-round way, only the Inner Mongolia Kailu Yuwang rose 0.5 points, and the listed price of corn deep processing in Heijiliao and the mainstream areas of Inner Mongolia is 1.115~1.185 yuan/jin;
In the North China market, due to the grassroots surplus grain, farmers' grain sentiment still exists, the supply of grassroots corn increases, traders increase in storage, the demand for further replenishment is weakened, with the harvest and down, the amount of corn in the circulation stage increases, the arrival of enterprises in front of the door increases, the factory looks at the car to give the price, by the amount of grain sources, the quotation is weakly adjusted!
Among them, in Shandong, more than 950 cars arrived in front of the deep processing door, the listed price of enterprises in many places in Shandong fell by 0.2~0.5 cents/jin, the spot price of corn was 1.147~1.275 yuan, and the mainstream deep processing price was 1.16~1.22 yuan/jin!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, the bottom support of the corn market still exists, but due to the large amount of surplus grain at the grassroots level in North China, the mentality of farmers to sell grain still exists, and the demand is generally followed, and the market trend is slightly volatile and weak. However, with the gradual reduction of surplus grain at the grassroots level and the increase in the demand for replenishment by enterprises, in mid to late April, the corn market may be dominated by strong shocks, and the market will roughly exchange time for space!
In terms of wheat, wheat prices are under pressure and falling, and in the short term, the market will still be weak! At present, the factors supporting the weak wheat prices are as follows:
On the one hand, flour consumption has entered the off-season, the downstream stocking has improved slightly before the Qingming Festival, the traders' receiving efforts have become stronger, the orders of milling enterprises have increased, and the enterprises have been affected by the small inventory, and there is just the operation of replenishing the warehouse, and the wheat quotation has risen. However, with the end of pre-holiday stocking, flour purchase and sales are cold again, due to the influence of weather factors, flour storage is not easy, the market cautious hoarding mentality has become stronger, milling enterprises are more likely to sell production, the operating rate has gradually fallen, the consumption level of wheat raw grain has declined, enterprises have maintained low inventory, and some enterprises are still in the stage of wheat raw grain;
On the other hand, the supply of wheat is relatively sufficient, although, the grassroots surplus grain bottomed out, the price of wheat in the channel inventory is upside down, and the subscription mentality is weakened, but due to the approaching new wheat market, in order to reduce the risk of storage, the grain storage and local grain depots at all levels have increased the progress of wheat rotation, and the market grain supply is loose!
Therefore, under the long and short game, the wheat market is limited, and the price shows a weak adjustment trend, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the mainstream wheat producing areas, the listed price of milling enterprises is 1.36~1.39 yuan, and the price range of enterprises in many places is 0.5~1 cent/catty!
In terms of live pigs, in the past two days, with the support of sentiment and second breeding, pig prices have turned from weak to strong, and the price has shown a trend of rising against the trend!
According to data analysis, on April 7, the pig price rose by 0.15 yuan in a single day, and the pig price rose by 15.14 yuan/kg.
To support the rise in pig prices, on the one hand, the support of the second stage of breeding for market sentiment has become stronger. Due to the north and south of many places, the breeding end by the early slaughter and epidemic factors, the vacancy rate of pig farms is higher, the second breeding just needs to fill the column is still existing, by the previous pig price decline, feed costs are low, the enthusiasm of the second breeding is heating up, and the second breeding in many places in the north is concentrated, which has led to the improvement of market sentiment;
On the other hand, the breeding end is reluctant to sell and carry the price, the pace of slaughter in stages has slowed down, the supply of pigs in the society has shrunk, the difficulty of slaughtering the group pig enterprises is low, the mentality of shrinking and pulling up the slaughter has become stronger, and the supply of live pigs is slightly tighter. During the festival, the consumption support still exists, the white strip goods are relatively positive, the resistance of slaughtering enterprises to high-priced pig sources has weakened, the average daily slaughter volume has increased slightly, and the phenomenon of price increase and quantity has increased!
Therefore, affected by the support of many parties in the market, pig prices show a trend of rising against the trend, however, with the resumption of the resumption of the group pig enterprises after the holiday, the market purchase and sales are gradually accelerating, the group pig enterprises or have an incremental slaughter plan, I personally believe that on April 7, the difficulty of slaughtering enterprises to collect pigs or will gradually weaken, in the northern region, pig prices or have the pressure to rise and fall!