During the Qingming holiday, the domestic corn market "exploded", and multiple benefits converged, which also gave the market "confidence" for corn prospects!
Previously, from April 1, the Northeast market, Jilin grain storage at all levels directly under the warehouse to carry out a new round of corn storage work, the agency estimates, the increase in corn storage or will reach 2.6 million tons.
At the same time, the customs requires traders to restrict the transportation of overseas corn to the bonded area, which has a strong boost to the enthusiasm of grain farmers, which may improve the pressure of domestic corn oversupply!
As we all know, last year's overseas corn prices fell sharply, to the lowest value in the last three years, traders imported overseas corn, due to the domestic quota of 7.2 million tons per year limit, if the quota is exceeded, it is bound to increase the customs tariff to 65%, which also allows many traders to import overseas corn into the bonded area for processing, and then import with lower tariffs, resulting in domestic low-price imported corn and corn flour impact the domestic market, inhibiting the trend of domestic corn prices!
Nowadays, under the double benefit of policy storage and restrictions on overseas corn, in recent days, in Shandong, the amount of deep processing enterprises has decreased, and corn quotations have stopped falling and rising, and many people think that the spring of the corn market is coming.
However, under the support of many parties, the domestic corn has fallen again! From the market feedback, in Shandong, the level of corn to the factory this morning has increased to nearly 1,000 cars, and the phenomenon of enterprise price decline has increased again, which also makes some overly optimistic corn prospects miserable "slap in the face", and the rise of domestic corn is still facing multiple pressures!
First, the pressure on the supply of substitutes is unabated.
Although the bonded zone restricts overseas corn, the level of imported low-priced grains and cereal flour is still at a high level, the domestic inventory of overdue low-priced rice is high, and the corn replacement inventory is still at a high level, which will also inhibit the demand for domestic corn purchase and sales;
Second, the surplus grain at the grassroots level of corn is loose!
At present, the surplus grain at the grassroots level in Northeast China has decreased, however, the traders' inventories are high, and some enterprises are facing severe pressure on the accumulation of stocks, but the corn in the producing areas is upside down, and the corn in the Northeast is not smooth, which has exacerbated the pressure on the local supply side. In North China and the Huanghuai region, there is still more surplus grain at the grassroots level, and there are still about 3 percent of the surplus grain in Shandong, Hebei and Henan.
Third, the ability to undertake demand is insufficient!
In terms of demand follow-up, feed enterprises are subject to low prices to replace sufficient inventory, the breeding industry is relatively sluggish, enterprise corn inventory is loose, and the demand for replenishment is relatively sluggish, in particular, the quality of grassroots corn is uneven, and there are more toxins exceeding the standard.
In terms of deep processing, although enterprises have the need to replenish the warehouse, however, the inventory of raw grain is relatively safe, North China and the Huanghuai region, the mainstream deep processing corn inventory days are about 25 days, and the inventory days of some enterprises in Northeast China have reached about 60 days. The market consumption is insufficient, and the company maintains the performance of "looking at the car and giving the price"!
To sum up, although, the increase in reserves and restrictions on imported corn have some support for market sentiment, which may be good for corn prospects. However, from a rational point of view, at present, the domestic corn purchase and sales are still facing the pressure of "strong supply and weak demand", in the short term, the lack of unilateral adjustment of corn prices, the price will still maintain the situation of ups and downs, and the corn market in no special situation, the market rises, can only use time to exchange space!
The end of this article, thank you for reading!