If you don't buy a house in 2024, you can't afford it in 5 years or you can pick it casually? Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan have the same opinion

Since ancient times, houses have always been an indispensable part of people's lives, and they are deeply influenced by the traditional concept of "having a house to have a home, starting a family first and then starting a business", and houses are closely linked to people's happy life. Especially in modern society, houses have been endowed with financial attributes and have become a popular choice for investment. In the past two decades, housing prices have risen sharply driven by investors, and data shows that in 2000, the average house price in mainland China was only about 2,000 yuan, and in September 2021, the average house price once climbed to 11,030 yuan. Although housing prices have fallen in the past two years, the average selling price of newly built commercial houses in the country has dropped to 9,293 yuan from January to February 2024, but the current housing prices are still at a high level. This also makes the real estate sector attractive to many investors.

There are various reasons why people are keen to invest in property. First of all, the continuous rise in housing prices has made real estate investment an effective way to increase family wealth. Secondly, with the continuous depreciation of cash value and the relative lack of investment channels, a house has become an ideal investment choice. Not only is property investment simple and easy, but the property itself has the dual function of living and renting. The continued rise in house prices and rents has led to a significant increase in the wealth of families who have invested in property. The combination of these factors has led many families to choose to invest their excess cash in real estate.

Through the calculation of the current urbanization rate data, we can find a surprising fact, at present, more than 97% of urban households with household registration have an average of 1.5 houses, and according to the urbanization rate of 46% and the urbanization rate of 66.16% of the permanent population, the number of real estate currently held by urban households is enough to meet the housing needs of all urban population. In fact, many people with non-urban hukou have also purchased real estate in the city, so except for a few first- and second-tier cities, most cities have shown a significant surplus of housing resources. Survey data from Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in 2017 further confirmed that the overall vacancy rate of commercial housing in mainland China was as high as 22%. Considering the large influx of new commercial housing into the market every year, the current housing vacancy rate is undoubtedly more severe.

However, despite the surplus of housing resources, many people still face the problem of buying a home. The core reason behind this is the high price of housing, which has discouraged most families who just need it. Under the double blow of housing prices and living pressures, it has become extremely difficult to buy a house. Even with a down payment on a home purchase, a 30% down payment is a lot of money. Especially in the first and second tier popular cities, a house is often worth two or three million or more, and such a down payment is undoubtedly a huge burden for ordinary families. Not to mention, the decades of mortgage pressure that come with buying a house are even more breathless.

It can be seen that house prices have indeed fallen in the past two years, and house prices have also fallen a lot in the first two months of 2024, but the overall house prices are still very high now. As a result, even in the face of current housing prices, many families still need to use all their savings when buying a home, and even need to advance their income for decades to come. For many families, property is undoubtedly their most important symbol of wealth.

However, it should not be ignored that housing prices have fallen in most cities. This puts many buyers in a dilemma: on the one hand, they are worried about losing money due to the fall in home prices after buying a home, and on the other hand, they are worried that they will miss out on the opportunity to buy a home and they will not be able to afford a home in the future. As a result, many families have chosen to put their home buying plans on hold for the time being and wait to see how the property market develops.

Investors and buyers alike want to buy a property at the lowest possible price, but predicting future home price trends can be a challenging task. In the face of such a dilemma, we might as well listen to the views of industry bigwigs Wang Jianlin and Ma Guangyuan. So, if we choose not to buy a house in 2024, will we face the dilemma of not being able to afford a home in five years, or will there be more options?

Wang Jianlin talks about the future trend of housing prices

It's 2024 in the blink of an eye, and looking back on 2013, Wang Jianlin's judgment on the trend of housing prices in the next 10 years on TV shows is still vivid. For first- and second-tier cities, he foresees that the continued inflow of population will support the rise in housing prices, while for third- and fourth-tier cities, he expects the loss of population to affect the stability of housing prices.

Ten years have passed, and Wang Jianlin's predictions for first- and second-tier cities have proved to be accurate. However, the trend of housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities has exceeded his expectations, and a round of sharp increases since 2015 has caused many cities to continue to rise until 2020. This is not because Wang Jianlin made a mistake in prediction, but because he failed to foresee the huge impact of the policy on the property market in third- and fourth-tier cities. The promotion of the monetization of shantytown reform has caused a large amount of capital to pour into the property market in these cities, coupled with the purchase restriction policy in the first and second-tier cities in 2016, speculators have poured into the third and fourth-tier cities without purchase restrictions, which has jointly promoted the doubling of housing prices.

However, in recent years, as housing prices continue to fall, speculators have begun to withdraw, and the perception of buyers who just need to buy a home is also changing. Since 2020, the old renovation project has been fully launched, and the shed reform policy has gradually withdrawn from the stage. Without the support of shantytown reform funds, housing prices in many third- and fourth-tier cities began to recover. At present, housing prices in many cities are seriously inflated, and they are out of touch with the income level of local residents. Even if the property market returns to normal under the bailout policy, at most only the first- and second-tier hot cities will continue to rise, and for most of the third- and fourth-tier cities, the housing prices may continue to fall.

Ma Guangyuan's new attitude towards the property market: only a few properties are worth investing in

Ma Guangyuan has changed his view on the property market, and he predicts that "housing for living, not speculation" will become a long-term property market control policy, which means that the glory days of the real estate industry have ended, and real estate is no longer suitable as an investment tool for the public. If you want to make a profit from real estate investment, you will need more professional knowledge and vision.

Ma Guangyuan further put forward the "three 20%" theory, that is, he believes that only 20% of cities, 20% of real estate enterprises and 20% of real estate have investment potential. This means that most properties may no longer be suitable for investment, and only those that are located in cities with development potential, developed by strong and reputable real estate companies, and have good quality properties and excellent property services, may become a wise choice for investors.

Taking third- and fourth-tier cities as an example, Ma Guangyuan bluntly said that investing in real estate in these cities is like taking a chestnut in the fire, and the risk is extremely high. He stressed that although he did not completely deny the real estate industry, he did believe that the property market will show a trend of differentiation in the future, and the investment value of most properties will gradually decrease.

It can be seen that comparing Ma Guangyuan and Wang Jianlin's views on the property market, we can find that although they express themselves in different ways, their core views are quite similar. They all believe that in the next five years, with the implementation of the property market rescue policy, the property market in the first and second-tier hot cities will gradually return to normal development, and housing prices will continue to rise. In third- and fourth-tier cities, housing prices may see a correction due to population loss and the exit of speculators.

Therefore, Ma Guangyuan suggested that the next five years may be a good time for those who want to buy a home under the stable trend of house prices. Housing prices in first- and second-tier hot cities will continue to rise, and the cost of buying a house will gradually increase. For third- and fourth-tier cities where housing prices are stagnating or falling, the cost to home buyers may gradually decrease.

So, in the face of such a new trend in the property market, what do you think? Are you willing to follow Ma Guangyuan's advice and look for those "three 20%" properties with investment potential? Or do you have other unique insights and strategies? We look forward to your sharing and discussion.