The renminbi rose by more than 400 points! Foreign investors bought more than 5 billion, and the A-share dive was eaten up by the hype of the theme

Last Friday, the offshore RMB exchange rate plummeted, and A-shares also fell sharply. It seems that the exchange rate is not the main factor that causes the fluctuation of A-shares, the exchange rate mainly affects foreign capital, the return of foreign capital at noon last Friday, and today's foreign capital is a large purchase of more than 5.5 billion, and today's plunge is completely domestic smashing. The weekend AI blows too hard, the expectations are too consistent, on the virtue of domestic capital, it will inevitably be sold in the same, the big model, corpus and other concept stocks blown over the weekend are all dead today, AI as the main line performance is not as expected will naturally affect market sentiment, with the weakening of AI, the entire high-level stocks are falling.

We once thought that the plunge of small and micro cap stocks in January meant that the hype of the theme that was popular last year was over, but we did not expect to make a comeback after the year, and there will be many small essays every day in the past two weeks, resulting in great volatility in stocks and seriously damaging the ecology of A-shares.

In the past, the speculation of A-shares was followed by the speculation of Dayouzi, and retail investors saw that their seats were on the list, and some retail investors would follow suit the next day to buy, and Dayouzi deliberately maintained their seat premium, forming a pricing effect.

With the prevalence of live broadcasts, planets, group chats, etc., the hype of the theme has become driven by various small compositions, whether the logic is really not important, the important thing is whether the recognition is enough or not, and whether it can form a wide range of out-of-the-circle effects. Small essays are disseminated in various media in the form of forms, chat records, pictures, etc., and retail investors will follow the trend to buy when they see it, and after the price limit, it will strengthen the recognition and lead to more follow-up funds to join. Some of these small essays are from the seller, some are rumors from the wind, some are from foreign media, and some are spliced together with various information.

But there is no free lunch in the world, and information has a high barrier, especially valuable information, which is often N long when it reaches the hands of ordinary retail investors. There will be an additional layer of latent funds in each hand, and after this information is disseminated to the whole network or is expected to be cashed out, the latent funds will be dumped to the funds chasing high.

Some information may be correct, but it has been reflected in the stock price in the process of dissemination, and the stock price will plummet when it is really cashed out, which is the game of A shares. We have reason to suspect that the information chain of the small composition has formed a collective of interests, and the harvest is the majority of retail investors who follow the trend.

For example, today's real estate sector rose sharply, in addition to the heavy tone of the National Standing Committee on Friday, but also related to a rumor, according to the Financial Associated Press, this morning, there are market rumors that there will be real estate-related documents issued soon, will fully focus on two directions: one is to fully cancel the restrictive policies of core cities, and the other is to promote the implementation of the financing coordination mechanism. According to the reporter's understanding from the industry, the purchase restriction policy in non-core areas of first-tier cities may be canceled, but it may still be in the research stage. And the financing coordination mechanism is being implemented.

For example, Guanghong Technology, these Huawei mobile phone chain stocks fell sharply at noon, and for example, today's HBM concept stocks such as Tongfu Microelectronics fell sharply, all of which are related to some rumors, and the specific rumors have not been confirmed, so we don't know, anyway, the market ecology is very bad.

Specifically, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.71%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.91%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.19%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.63%. The turnover of the two cities shrank slightly to 1.04 trillion yuan, and more than 4,500 companies fell.

There is no need to worry about the future of A-shares, we believe that there is no basis for a sharp decline in A-shares:

From a fundamental point of view, the mainland's economy was not bad in the first two months, and it continued to recover in March. According to high-frequency data, the slope of domestic economic recovery stabilized and rebounded this week. On the one hand, the increase in construction consumption has driven the production of raw materials such as steel, cement, and asphalt to recover, freight logistics has recovered month-on-month, and the futures prices of black commodities have also rebounded. On the other hand, external demand and household consumption continued to recover, and industrial production in the middle and lower reaches remained strong.

According to Ping An Securities, the average daily transaction area of new homes in 61 sample cities increased by 26% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline narrowed by 10 percentage points to -41%, down 4% from the average of the same period from 2019 to 2021. In terms of city energy level, the year-on-year and month-on-month performance of new home sales in third-tier cities on Tuesday was stronger than that in first-tier cities and fourth- and fifth-tier cities.

Even the bearish funds in the bond market are now starting to diverge, and today's Treasury yields continued to rebound, Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.76%, the 10-year main contract down 0.25%, the 5-year main contract down 0.17%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02%.

From the perspective of capital, the national team provides the role of protecting the bottom of the plate, insurance funds and foreign capital continue to buy, compared with the world's major stock markets are at a high level, A-shares are obviously cost-effective.

Everyone should think long this year, and don't think that A-shares are just a simple over-falling rebound. Last year's A-share plunge was suppressed by macro narratives such as "deflationary theory", and this year's grand narratives will be falsified, just the valuation repair is enough for A-shares to rise for a while, the global stock market is in a new high, A-shares rose to 3000 points and panicked, all because they did not see the macro environment changed.

This year, the domestic economy will stabilize and rebound is a high probability event, and the central banks of Europe and the United States will also have a high probability of cutting interest rates, which will promote the rebound of the global manufacturing industry and help boost external demand, which is obviously good for the macro environment of equity assets, and we must clearly understand this. Have a long-term long mindset, so as not to be confused by short-term fluctuations.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently