Every reporter: Xiao Shiqing Every editor: Zhang Yiming
On May 11, the financial statistics for April 2024 released by the central bank showed that RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan in the first four months, of which 730 billion yuan were added in April.
In addition, M2 and M1 continued to fall in April, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% in M2 and a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% in M1, which were 1.1 and 2.5 percentage points lower than the end of last month, respectively. As the reporter noticed, the M2-M1 scissors gap further widened to 8.6 percentage points.
In terms of social finance, the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing in the first four months of 2024 was 12.73 trillion yuan, 3.04 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. In the same period, the stock of social financing was 389.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%.
In the view of Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, the current money stock is not low, in addition to guiding the reasonable growth of credit and balanced delivery, we should focus on revitalizing the stock of financial resources, avoid the idling of capital precipitation, improve the output efficiency of credit resources, and promote the accelerated development of direct financing, and guide the transformation and upgrading of the financing structure and the economic structure to be more adaptable, which is also the focus of the next step, so as to achieve reasonable growth in quantity and effective improvement in quality to meet the needs of high-quality economic development.
M2 grew 7.2% year-on-year
The data showed that the year-on-year growth rate of M2 and M1 in April fell from the previous month. At the end of April, M2 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and M1 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, 1.1 and 2.5 percentage points lower than the end of the previous month, respectively. So far, the M2-M1 scissors gap has further widened to 8.6 percentage points.
The reporter of "Daily Economic News" learned that the current currency of the mainland is divided into three levels: M0, M1 and M2. M0, often referred to as "cash", is the most active and liquid; M1 is M0 plus a unit demand deposit with slightly less liquidity; M2 is M1 plus less liquid unit time deposits, resident deposits, etc.
Wen Bin said that the M2 balance increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate has slowed down, but the quality and efficiency of the financial system to serve the real economy have been further improved. The slowdown in the growth rate of the money supply is affected by a combination of factors. First, since the beginning of the year, the bond market has been bullish to boost the yield of asset management products such as wealth management, and bank deposits have been diverted to wealth management. Second, the regulatory authorities have increased the regulation of idling arbitrage of funds and manual interest payments by banks, and squeezed out some of the inflated deposits and loans. Third, the accounting of the added value of the financial industry has been optimized, and the motivation of individual local governments to increase the added value of finance through the expansion of deposits and loans has been significantly weakened.
"In the coming months, with the gradual improvement of financing demand in the real economy, the acceleration of government financing and the gradual return of the bond market to fundamental logic, the growth rate of money supply should stabilize." Wen Bin said.
Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities, pointed out that the obvious decline in the growth rate of money supply is mainly due to the fact that since April, many deposit funds have been transferred to asset management products such as bank wealth management under the background of strict supervision of seasonal factors and manual interest supplements.
The reporter noted that in the first four months, RMB deposits increased by 7.32 trillion yuan. Among them, household deposits increased by 6.71 trillion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises decreased by 1.65 trillion yuan, financial deposits decreased by 187.4 billion yuan, and deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 1.23 trillion yuan.
Ming Ming believes that the decrease in deposits of residents and enterprises confirms the phenomenon of "deposit moving", and the year-on-year decrease in fiscal deposits is mainly due to the slow process of government bond issuance, considering that government bond financing decreased by 550 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, reflecting that the current pace of fiscal expenditure may be slowed down marginally.
It should be noted that Ming Ming said that the decline in money supply this time is mainly due to the "squeezing of water" of some non-compliant deposit products, and it is also related to the current more diversified wealth management methods, which cannot be interpreted one-sidedly as a decline in the ability of finance to support the real economy; On the contrary, we believe that the regulation of deposits will help revitalize funds and better support the recovery and development of the real economy.
In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan
According to the data, RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan in the first four months. In terms of sub-sectors, household loans increased by 813.4 billion yuan, of which; Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 8.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 2.56 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 6.61 trillion yuan, bill financing decreased by 661.9 billion yuan, and loans to non-banking financial institutions increased by 494.3 billion yuan.
Among them, new RMB loans in April were 730 billion yuan, compared with 3.09 trillion yuan in March. Wen Bin believes that April is a small month for traditional credit, and the scale of credit delivery usually falls significantly month-on-month, but under the guidance of the low base in the same period last year and the stable credit rhythm at the beginning of the quarter, new RMB loans in April this year increased year-on-year. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.19 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.13 trillion yuan.
In addition, the stock of social financing scale at the end of April was 389.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points from the end of the previous month. In the first four months, the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing was 12.73 trillion yuan, 3.04 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Among them, the social finance in April decreased by 198.7 billion yuan, and the reporter noted that this was the first time that the social finance decreased in a single month after October 2005.
Wen Bin said that government bonds, corporate bonds and undiscounted bank acceptance bills were the main drags. In April, the net financing of government bonds was -98.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 553.2 billion yuan, and the issuance process of national bonds and local bonds was still relatively lagging behind. In order to effectively implement the macro policies that have been determined, the Politburo meeting on April 30 called for "the early issuance and use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and the acceleration of the issuance and use of special bonds".
Ming Ming said that from the perspective of social financing items, it is mainly due to the decline in the scale of undiscounted acceptance bills and government bonds. The former is mainly due to the decline in the impulse of bank bills and the willingness of enterprises to issue bills, while the latter is due to the slow issuance of government bonds and local government bonds. Considering factors such as the decline in land transfer fees, the slow progress of special bond issuance, and the limited financial resources of local governments, the follow-up government bond financing will be accelerated, which is expected to give a significant boost to social finance.
New loans are expected to continue to increase year-on-year in the second quarter
Looking forward to the next stage, Wen Bin pointed out that the fiscal policy will be moderately strengthened, and the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and local bonds will be accelerated, which is expected to form an effective support for the growth rate of social finance; The prudent monetary policy is precise and effective, there is still some room for RRR and interest rate cuts, and the structural monetary policy tools are focused, reasonable and moderate, and there are advances and retreats, and the "five major articles" areas and reasonable consumer financing needs will be more targeted to meet. With the gradual emergence of demand-side policies such as fiscal policy and equipment renewal, it will help smooth production and consumption, promote investment and stabilize growth.
"At the same time, the current money stock is not low, in addition to guiding the reasonable growth of credit and balanced delivery, we should focus on revitalizing the stock of financial resources, avoiding the idling of capital precipitation, improving the output efficiency of credit resources, and promoting the accelerated development of direct financing, and guiding the financing structure to be more suitable for the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure, which is also the focus of the next step, so as to achieve reasonable growth in quantity and effective improvement in quality, and meet the needs of high-quality economic development." Wen Bin said.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that with the reversal of the effect of "balanced loan delivery", the new loans in the second quarter are expected to continue to increase year-on-year, and the peak of the maturity of national bonds recedes, the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds is opened, and the pace of local government bond issuance is accelerated.
Wang Qing said that at present and in the future, the focus on the total amount of credit and social financing can be moderately diluted, and the focus is on observing the degree to which structural monetary policy tools guide financial resources to meet the effective demand in key areas, including the growth rate of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry, inclusive small and micro enterprise loans, and green loans. This is a concrete embodiment of the "precise and effective" monetary policy this year.
National Business Daily