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The fertility rate continues to fall, and a crisis is looming
China is facing unprecedented demographic challenges. Since 2015, China's fertility rate has hovered below a dangerous threshold. According to the latest data from the United Nations, China's total fertility rate is only 1.16, far below the replacement level of 2.1. This means that if the status quo is maintained, the population of each generation will be nearly half that of the previous generation, and China will face a serious situation of rapid population aging and continuous shrinkage in the future.
The harm of declining fertility is like a ticking time bomb that will fundamentally shake the foundations of a country's economic and social development. Once it enters the "population stagnation trap", it will bring many vicious circles and irreversible negative effects, such as labor depletion, heavy damage to fiscal revenue, intensified urban hollowing, serious lack of economic momentum, and precarious pension security system...... Eventually, the development of the entire country will come to a standstill or even regress.
The decline in fertility to such a point is not accidental, but is the inevitable result of the interaction of multiple factors. This is no longer a simple demographic figure, but a demographic catastrophe that is happening. It can be said that solving the population problem is one of the most urgent and important national strategic tasks at present.
Multiple practical factors affect fertility intentions
The reasons for the continued decline in the fertility rate are complex, with both objective and subjective factors. Among them, the practical factors mainly include the following aspects
1. Constraints on the level of economic development. Although China's economy ranks among the top in the world, there is still a big gap between its per capita income and that of developed countries. Families bear a heavy financial burden of raising children, which undoubtedly reduces the willingness to have children to a certain extent. Especially in the economic downturn, families are more cautious about childbearing.
2. Educational attainment increases life stress. In recent years, the education level of Chinese citizens has continued to increase, which is something to celebrate. On the other hand, highly educated groups tend to have higher career requirements, greater life pressure, and more investment in children's training and education, so that their fertility willingness is generally low.
3. Housing problems lead to fertility concerns. Housing prices in China's major cities have remained high in recent years, putting enormous financial and living pressures on families preparing to have children. Plagued by the lack of housing, many families have had to postpone their family plans.
4. The employment situation is not optimistic. There is a large gap in high-quality employment, stable jobs are hard to find, and career prospects are worrying, and employment issues are closely related to the source of family income, which naturally affects the willingness to have children. Especially for some grassroots people and young people, the issue of employment is even more thorny.
It can be seen that practical factors such as economic foundation, education level, housing situation, and employment situation have a significant impact on fertility intention. With so many constraints, childbearing has become a burden rather than a joy for many people.
Conventional resistance remains
In addition to the influence of practical factors, traditional concepts such as preference for sons over daughters and emphasis on blood ties are still prevalent in some regions, which is also an important reason for the decline in fertility. Throughout China's long-standing traditional culture, the ideas of male superiority and inferiority of women, and only the orthodoxy of children and offspring are orthodox, are deeply rooted, and still have a certain influence on the concept of childbearing in some areas.
For example, there are still many families who pursue boys too much, and continue to have sons even if they already have a girl, ignoring that girls should also be cherished and expected. The preference for sons over daughters has led to serious skews in the number of births and sex selection in some families.
Moreover, they have high expectations for their children, hoping that they will be able to carry on the family and promote the family in the future. As everyone knows, this kind of thinking has been seriously out of touch with modern society, and whether children get married and have children should be completely out of their own will. Rather than increasing fertility, the next generation will be resentful and further reduce their willingness to have children.
In addition, there are still some problems left over from history in some areas, such as the concept of preference for sons over women and abortion behaviors left over from the implementation of the family planning policy, which will affect the current concept of childbirth to a certain extent.
Therefore, in order to solve the problem of low fertility rate, in addition to improving economic and social policies, it is also necessary to reverse the deep-rooted traditional stereotypes and bad habits in some regions. Only when the concept first steps into the track of modern civilization can the increase in fertility rate really take root.
The response to government policy has been muted
In response to the grim situation of declining fertility rates, the Chinese government has indeed introduced a series of policies and measures to encourage fertility over the years. However, these policies have had little effect in the implementation process, and the response of the public has been mediocre, and the desire to have children has not been effectively boosted. The main reasons for this are the following aspects
1. Insufficient pertinence and operability of the policy. Most of the existing policies to encourage childbirth are relatively macro and principled, lack specific implementation rules and supporting measures, and cannot truly touch the actual needs of the people.
2. The policy coverage is limited and the scope of benefits is small. Many preferential policies to encourage childbirth are only for some specific groups of people, such as civil servants and personnel of public institutions, but do not benefit the broader group of people.
3. The policy is not strong enough, and the level of treatment is low. The amount of preferential measures such as birth subsidies introduced in some areas is limited, and it is difficult to truly reduce the actual burden of childbirth on families.
4. Lack of coherence and continuity in policy implementation. Local governments are relatively casual in the formulation and implementation of policies in this regard, lacking uniformity and continuity, which greatly reduces the effectiveness of policies.
These policy issues have led to a lukewarm response to policies to encourage childbearing. In order to increase the birth rate, it is necessary to further optimize and improve relevant policies, effectively solve the practical problems that people are most concerned about, and improve the accessibility, coverage and effectiveness of policies.
The way to deal with it is a long-term systematic project
The crux of the demographic problem lies in the long-term sluggish fertility rate, which is no longer a single or temporary phenomenon, but a long-term and complex phenomenon
The crux of the population problem lies in the chronic slump in fertility, which is no longer a singular or temporary phenomenon, but a long-term and complex systemic challenge. Solving this problem requires the long-term efforts and sustained investment of the whole society.
Fundamentally speaking, increasing the fertility rate must focus on solving the economic, social and livelihood issues that the people are actually concerned about. Only by earnestly raising the income level of residents, easing the burden of education and housing, and improving the employment environment can we create good conditions for the people to have children and stimulate their willingness to have children from the source.
At the same time, the government also needs to further improve the supporting policies to encourage childbirth. For example, more policy preferences will be given in terms of maternity insurance, maternity leave benefits, childcare subsidies, etc., to effectively reduce the burden of family birth costs; increase practical support for the housing and employment of childbearing families; Strengthen the protection of the rights and interests of women during pregnancy, childbirth and lactation, and so on. These measures should form a complete policy chain under the framework of systematic top-level design, and connect with economic and social development, rather than simply piling them up.
In addition, we also need to promote the modern transformation of traditional concepts at the ideological and cultural level. It is necessary to vigorously advocate scientific concepts such as equality between men and women, the quality of the population, and the happiness of families over the simple pursuit of inheritance, and eradicate outdated feudal ideas such as preference for sons over daughters and excessive emphasis on blood ties. This requires a multi-pronged approach, with equal emphasis on family education, school education, and social education.
In short, solving the population problem will not be achieved overnight, and it will require systematic design and long-term efforts at the economic, policy, cultural, and social levels to create an environment conducive to increasing fertility. We are confident that as long as the whole society forms a joint force, we will certainly be able to find the right path for breakthroughs and open up a new source of vitality for the country's development.