Li Xiang: At the end of the year, there will be only three brands left! In addition to Tesla, which new forces can stay?

After the development of the new energy industry in the past few years, it has passed the initial period of savage growth, and the entire automobile circle has reached a peak in terms of the number of brands and models, and has gradually begun to shrink, such as mobile phones, TVs, refrigerators and other consumer markets have also had a similar situation, so many people in the industry have judged that the new energy vehicle market will eventually show a head effect, that is, a small number of head brands occupy a large number of market share.

But Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, seems to have a more radical view, and recently, Li Xiang released a circle of friends to talk about the head effect of the new energy market. He believes that the new energy market of more than 200,000 will change faster than many people think, "in the fourth quarter of this year, three brands will eat up 70% of the market share", Li Xiang thinks this will be more concentrated than fuel vehicles, and smart phones are no different.

Obviously, Li Xiang thinks that this year's mid-to-high-end new energy competition will be white-hot, and even will produce results at the end of the year, so which three brands will be the head "CR3" in Li Xiang's mouth?

tesla

In fact, when it comes to new energy vehicles, we can't avoid the name of Tesla, a model can be sold for four or five years, and tens of thousands of consumers are willing to pay every month, except for Tesla, there is no other brand that can do it for the time being, in the previous release of January 1 - February 18 more than 200,000 pure electric car sales list, Tesla still has an indisputable advantage (54,000 units) to crush other brands to win the championship, and such results can be achieved in the off-season, which shows Tesla's influence.

This year, Tesla is advancing a number of key projects, including the development of new vehicles, battery manufacturing, the construction and expansion of charging stations, and research and development in the field of autonomous driving, which is expected to spend at least 10 billion US dollars, equivalent to about 71.8 billion yuan. This includes the facelifted Tesla Model Y and the new car Tesla Model Q, which everyone is more concerned about, I believe that after the mass production of these two cars in China, it will set off a new wave of climax, and no one dares to say that the head brand that dominates China's mid-to-high-end new energy market in the future cannot tolerate Tesla's name.

Of course, Tesla still has an unspeakable "pain" in China, that is, FSD, Tesla without FSD is always a defective product, with the intensification of competition, the lack of FSD Tesla will not be abandoned by the market is really hard to say, but from the current stage of the information, Tesla has been working hard to promote FSD into the country and quite effective, perhaps one day in the future Tesla will come to the country completely.

ideal

Li Xiang dared to say such things in public, he must have his own confidence. In 2023, when the competition in the new energy vehicle market is fierce, Li Auto has achieved excellent results with the three models of the Ideal L series, with annual deliveries increasing by 182.2% year-on-year to 376,030 units, becoming the sales champion of new energy vehicles with more than 300,000 yuan in the Chinese market.

Its annual revenue in 2023 will exceed 100 billion yuan, turning losses into profits, and the annual net profit will reach 11.81 billion yuan. In 2024, the ideal is to challenge higher goals: 800,000, 100,000, 30,000, 2,000, these figures represent the annual sales target of 800,000 units, the monthly sales challenge of 100,000 units, the monthly sales of 30,000 units, and the layout of 2,000 supercharging stations, which can be described as a full flowering.

The current average price of a single car is more than 300,000 yuan, and the price of the ideal L6 that will be launched in April this year will enter the price range of 20 to 300,000 yuan, which also means that the brand has further entered the sinking market, but Li Xiang also made it clear that the ideal car will not launch models below 200,000 in five years, which means that the ideal will make every effort to cultivate the new energy market of more than 200,000 yuan.

With the support of the new car MEGA, L6 and the newly facelifted L7, L8 and L9, it is difficult for the ideal to sell well this year, and I personally feel that it is relatively easy to enter the ranks of the top 3 new energy sources.

Ask the boundary

Since last year's facelift M7 officially launched,Huawei and the name of the world has been completely launched in the automotive circle,This year's January sales list can be seen one or two,The world relied on 32973 units of good results to win the championship of the new power of car manufacturing for the first time,And most of this is just relying on the world of the worldM7This car,In fact, after the release of the new question worldM9,Its order volume has exploded,Even a single day order thousands of units。

Throughout 2024, Wenjie has set itself a target of 600,000 vehicles, which has increased sixfold compared to last year, and in order to achieve this goal, Wenjie will also make efforts from a variety of products this year.

Now now on the market facelift M7 and M9 in addition to the world, the world will also bring a new M5 in the first half of the year, the price range of this car is still expected to be 25-300,000 yuan, but also in the short term the lowest price of the world, in addition to the M5, the world will also develop a new M8, the length of the car or about 5.1 meters, wheelbase or about 3 meters, is expected to use a 6-seat layout, proper "small M9". These new cars allow Wenjie to almost cover the market from 200,000 to 500,000, if calculated according to the current popularity of Wenjie M7 and M9, the sales of Wenjie at the end of the year will reach a terrifying magnitude.

Of course, in addition to Tesla, Ideal, and Wenjie, such as Zeekr, Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Leap also have the possibility of breaking out in this competition, but judging from the current sales trend, it is indeed very difficult for them to catch up with the first three.