Five years later, housing prices are still "like onions" or "like gold"? Now there is finally an answer, it is too real
2024 has arrived, and the question at hand is becoming more and more prominent: whether to buy a house or rent a house, waiting for the era of "housing prices like onions" predicted by Jack Ma?
Although Jack Ma's words are full of meaning, suggesting that housing prices will gradually become more affordable, it is still unclear whether this scenario will actually be as he said. Perhaps in some areas, housing prices may fall to a more reasonable level, but in a bustling city like Beijing, how can housing prices easily reach a point where everyone can buy them? However, the reality is clearly not so.
Therefore, we need to make a decision about whether to buy or rent a house according to our actual situation and future development plan. Renting may be a more practical and economical option in cities with high property prices, while in other areas, if there is a suitable opportunity to buy a home, you can also consider buying a property.
In fact, for the future development trend of the property market, Qiu Baoxing, former vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, has made it clear. He pointed out that China's per capita housing area has reached 40 square meters, which means that the people's housing needs have been basically met, and the country is no longer facing the problem of housing shortage. Moreover, according to the data, the debt ratio of the Chinese people has reached 53.7%, and the debt ratio of real estate companies has climbed to more than 70%. Therefore, the country will inevitably increase its efforts to deleverage in the future to reduce the risk of the industry. This means that the state will no longer tolerate the influx of money into the real estate market for speculation.
Regarding the trend of housing prices in the future, people from all walks of life have different opinions, which is undoubtedly the focus of heated discussions among the general public. For example, Li Ka-shing, a well-known businessman, has expressed deep concern about current housing prices. He pointed out that housing prices have climbed to prohibitive highs, and people's desire for housing is almost at the limit, indicating that the urgent need for housing will gradually cool. As a result, Li Ka-shing believes that in the next five years, house prices will lose the support to continue to climb, which is also a decisive factor in his decision to exit the real estate industry.
Similarly, well-known economist Li Xunlei is skeptical about the future upside of house prices. He believes that as the pace of urbanization continues to accelerate, the trend of population migration has shifted from rural to urban areas to small cities to large cities, which has made housing prices lose the momentum of general increases. Li Xunlei has bluntly said that even if housing prices in some cities are likely to rise, the space is already very limited.
However, property market expert Meng Xiaosu's views are very different. He believes that the current property market control policy has only temporarily suppressed people's housing demand, in fact, this demand is still strong. In addition, rising housing prices not only increase people's wealth, but also a symbol of the dignity of wealth.
The country's real estate policy has pointed out a "stable" direction for the future, and the specific implementation needs to be flexibly responded to according to the actual situation, so each city may have different policies. Whether or not you should buy a house in the next few years really needs to be analyzed on a case-by-case basis for the city in which you are located.
The country's policy orientation is to hope that the real estate market can develop steadily, avoid excessive speculation, and let the market supply and demand determine housing prices. Against this backdrop, first- and second-tier cities are likely to become places with a continuous inflow of population due to their well-developed infrastructure, developed industries, abundant employment opportunities and high wages. The potential and attractiveness of these cities could lead to housing prices remaining firm or rising in the future.
However, homebuyers also need to consider their own financial situation, home buying needs, and future plans when making decisions. In cities with high housing prices, buying a home can be a huge financial burden that needs to be carefully weighed. In other cities, there may be more suitable home buying opportunities.
In third- and fourth-tier cities where the outflow continues, it may be possible to wait for buyers who do not need to buy a home. These cities often face a scarcity of jobs and a lack of large corporations, making it difficult to attract and retain talent and young workers. After all, if a city loses its youthful power, it is equivalent to losing the motivation and hope for development.
How can housing prices in a city without a future remain high for a long time? Over time, housing prices in these cities will gradually return to rationality and match the actual income level of local residents. Therefore, for buyers who do not just need it, they may be able to find a more suitable time to buy a house in the process of housing prices gradually falling.
Jack Ma has predicted that there will be places where housing prices are as low as onions, but at the same time, there will also be popular areas where housing prices are as expensive as gold. This is precisely the inevitable result of the regional concentration of population in the process of urbanization in China. The ultimate direction of housing prices is not determined by policy speculation or speculators, but by real demand and demographic distribution. Faced with the dual pressure of high housing prices and the cost of living, many people feel suffocated, and they hope that housing prices will fall steadily, the government can increase efforts to build low-rent housing, and at the same time, all walks of life should also raise wages and reduce prices, so that the people can truly live a happy and contented life. We don't really hope that housing prices will be as low as onions, but we just hope that under the country's macroeconomic control, housing prices can fall back to a reasonable and affordable level.