The year 2023 is destined to be an extraordinary year of great significance in world history. This year, countries have been able to get out of the huge shadow of the global pandemic, and the turmoil and conflicts are still profoundly affecting the global trend in the post-pandemic era.
Wang Honggang, vice president and researcher of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, "reviewed" the world 2023 from three aspects: the new post-epidemic stage and complex changes, the five characteristics of the current international strategic situation, and leading the evolution of the global trend for the better. Come and check it out with Xiao I!
This article is reproduced with permission from the author.
Wang Honggang
Vice President and Researcher of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations
This article is about 4500 words, and it takes about 10 minutes to read
The year 2023 is destined to be an extraordinary year of great significance in world history. This year, countries have been able to emerge from the huge shadow of the global pandemic, and the turmoil and conflicts are still profoundly affecting the global trend in the post-pandemic era, and the whole world is entering new and unknown waters. "Great adjustment, great differentiation, great reorganization", "uncertain, unstable, unpredictable" -- people seem to have reason to sigh that "there really is no going back to the past".
However, the general trend of the times is still there, and the historical trend of peace, development, cooperation and win-win results is still unstoppable. Throughout history, the prosperity and withering, peace and turmoil, convergence and dispersion of human society have always been staged periodically, challenges are always present, and progress never stops.
The new post-epidemic stage and complex changes
The pandemic can be seen as an "accelerator" of global change. The global pandemic has significantly changed people's ideas and actions, and has profoundly reshaped the competition and cooperation between countries. The changes in the international landscape and the strategies of all parties, as well as the conflicts of interests and ideas within and between countries, have all intensified or amplified during the epidemic. In 2023, when countries get rid of the epidemic and enter a new stage of development, they find that the complexity of the world's changes has greatly increased, and a large number of existing problems continue to ferment, while at the same time showing some new characteristics that are different from the past or unexpected. In summary, there are five areas worth noting.
First, the economic situation is differentiated. The post-pandemic era has not brought about a strong and broad global economic recovery, and the post-pandemic international economic system has become more fragmented, with high inflation, low growth, and weak expectations plaguing the world economy. Due to the different resource endowments in different countries, the different resilience to geopolitical shocks, and especially the different directions and strengths of industrial policies in various countries, the economic development trends of various countries have become increasingly divergent after the epidemic. The U.S. economy has basically achieved a "soft landing" since the start of the interest rate hike cycle in 2022, and the economic data is relatively good, but this is mainly due to the trillions of dollars in fiscal relief during the epidemic and the large-scale industrial policy marked by the "three major bills". The aggressive monetary and industrial policies of the United States have brought huge spillover effects and siphon effects, which have become a major obstacle to the economic recovery of other countries. The European economy is on the verge of stagnation, with the German economy even falling into recession, the Japanese economy is barely supported by the Asian economic environment, and among the emerging economies, most of the countries are suffering from worsening debt, underinvestment, and weak consumption, except for the more resilient super-sized countries and a few countries that have benefited from the adjustment of global production and supply chains.
The second is a wide range of social dilemmas. In many developed and developing countries, confidence in the future has fallen even further. The long-standing problems of wealth disparity, regional disparity, class antagonism, and internal and external antagonism that existed before the epidemic have been further exacerbated by the impact of the epidemic. In particular, people in the low- and middle-income brackets in many countries have become more vulnerable, have suffered more from the impact of the pandemic, and are feeling greater pressure on their lives. Even in the United States, where the economy is performing "well", economic development is still disconnected from social development. The Biden administration is trying its best to peddle "bright" economic data, but the public feels the rising commodity prices and the deteriorating law and order situation, and the approval of "Bidennomics" is very low, and the approval of Biden's administration is also very low, and the majority of the people still believe that the country is on the wrong path. A common phenomenon around the world is that the difficult economic situation of the people at the bottom has led to the spread of extremist ideologies and the further rise of protest movements, and the degree of social stability in many countries has declined after the epidemic.
The third is the expansion of security conflicts. In Europe and Asia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for nearly two years, and it has been mired in a protracted war of stalemate and a brutal war of attrition. In 2023, Russia and Ukraine will attack and defend each other, but the battlefield situation will not change significantly, and the number of casualties on both sides will continue to rise. In terms of defining the nature of the conflict, Russia has elevated it to the level of anti-colonialism and anti-hegemony, while the United States and the West regard it as a confrontation between the so-called democratic and authoritarian systems. In the Middle East, instead of bringing lasting peace, the Abraham Accords have led to a bloody conflict in Gaza. The Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) raided Israel, and Israel retaliated in a frenzied manner, causing a major humanitarian catastrophe and fighting that has continued to this day. Both conflicts are the eruption of long-term contradictions after the Cold War and even after World War II, and are triggering a series of complex and far-reaching chain changes, significantly increasing the speed and complexity of the evolution of the century-old changes. These conflicts are a reminder that the world is far from achieving lasting peace once and for all as a result of globalization, that hot wars are already taking place and that the possibility of a major war cannot be easily ruled out.
Fourth, the adjustment of the great power game. During the epidemic, the disruption of the global supply chain and the layout of the global supply chain of the United States and the West have significantly weakened the foundation for the stability of relations between major countries and increased the risk of confrontation between major powers. Among them, the prospects for Sino-US relations are the most eye-catching. In 2023, in the face of the objective reality that decoupling and chain breaking cannot be achieved in the short term, based on the subjective consideration of both strategic competition and controlled competition, and at the same time under pressure and containment from all domestic and international aspects, the Biden administration has shown a posture of adjusting its relationship with China, deepening engagement and dialogue with China, and exploring how to avoid uncontrolled competition between the two sides and slide into strategic confrontation. With a responsible attitude towards world peace, China has actively planned the China-US summit in San Francisco and other interactions, and promoted the building of a framework for China-US strategic stability under the new situation based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.
Fifth, the rise of the "Global South". The concept of the "Global South" has been around for decades, has suddenly become a buzzword in international politics over the past few years, and 2023 has been mentioned more frequently than ever in various international forums. The vast number of Asian, African and Latin American countries are the main composition of the countries of the "Global South", and the expanded BRICS family has become the leading force of the "Global South". Behind its more pluralistic composition is a "non-Western" identity that expresses the collective dissatisfaction of developing countries with the status quo of international economic, political and security. These countries are aware of the need to achieve self-reliance and self-reliance, reject dependence and passive acceptance, and strive for legitimate sovereignty, security and development interests through their own efforts and collective cooperation. In the increasingly rigid traditional international system and the increasingly loose existing international system, the awakening and rise of the "Global South" has become a rare breeze and a dazzling bright color.
Five characteristics of the current international strategic situation
In the hundreds of years since the start of the process of world modernization, the cyclical replacement of "governing the world" and "chaotic times" on a global scale has become more and more obvious, which is the inevitable embodiment of the contradictions between the east and the west, the north and the south, the left and right, and the contradictions and conflicts between the first-mover countries and the late-developing countries. Nowadays, human society has once again entered the cusp of the great era. In the long run, the starting gun for mankind to march toward a higher degree of modernization has already sounded, the future potential is enormous, and the long-term prospects are destined to be bright; in the short term, all kinds of contradictions are still erupting, the crisis is far from being completed, the severity of the situation is only increasing, and it is impossible to see the rising sun without stormy waves. The characteristics of the current international strategic situation can be summarized as follows:
The first is the spread of the two major tendencies of self-care and inward-looking. In recent years, some countries' confidence in global cooperation has declined significantly, feeling that the international division of labor is very unreliable, the role of foreign exchanges has declined, and participation in cooperation may suffer losses. This sense of insecurity and mistrust may lead to a dwindling supply of international public goods, a looser and more inefficient mechanism for international cooperation, and a more prevalent strategic concept of nationalism and regionalism. This may take many forms, such as accelerating the re-industrialization of the country with more subsidies, protecting the domestic market by more direct means, "weaponizing" the resources at the disposal of the country and even international public goods, and the emergence of more types of "small circles". It is a vicious circle that is difficult to stop once it has been initiated, and will continue to weaken the effectiveness and legitimacy of the existing international system.
The second is the deepening of the two dilemmas of development and security. In 2023, the general sluggish post-epidemic economic recovery is likely to continue into 2024. It is difficult for most countries to find new drivers of economic growth, it is more difficult to coordinate economic growth and social stability, social discontent may further brew, resistance and destructive actions may increase, and the deterioration of the law and order situation and the increase in the cost of governance seem inevitable. The so-called "de-risking" measures of the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries not only fail to bring the industrial security and industrial advantages they expect, but are also destined to cause their costs to surge. In the face of escalating geopolitical competition, major countries have increased military and security spending, especially the United States and Europe in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, deeply feel that the military industry production capacity is insufficient, will step up the strengthening of their own military industry, the rise of "war economics" is a trend worthy of great attention.
The third is the competition between the two major lines of the extreme right and the extreme left. What is unusual is that the struggle between the left and right lines in many countries has intensified significantly over the past decade or so, and the radicalization of the left-wing line and the right-wing line has increased significantly, to the point of ultra-left populism and far-right populism, to the point where they are incompatible with each other. The reason for this is the increase in internal difficulties in various countries, the lack of good solutions, and the lack of governance. 2024 is a "super election year" on a global scale, with elections held in more than 70 countries, involving more than half of the world's population, especially the US presidential election. The basic reality is that the new crown epidemic has further increased the difficulties of governance in various countries, and the internal course of the struggle will inevitably increase. The basic rule is that during the epidemic, the line of various countries has generally "turned to the left", because the response to the epidemic requires the government to play a greater role and put more emphasis on social justice; after the epidemic, the right-wing line, especially the far-right populist line, may gain more support, Trump may make a comeback in the US election, and more "Protestants" may appear in the world.
Fourth, the game between the two major powers of the South and the West. The essence of the game is the struggle between latecomers and first-mover countries, and the root of the game is the future trend of the international order, especially the international economic and financial order. In 2024, the United States, Europe, Japan and other Western countries may join hands to increase the containment and pressure on the countries of the "Global South" in an attempt to maintain exploitation and control, and at the same time divide South-South cooperation through mixed strategies such as co-optation, decay, division, infiltration, and "stuckness", weaken the overall strength of the Southern bloc, and attack the systemically important southern powers with more complex and covert means. Countries in the "Global South" will pay more attention to self-reliance and self-reliance, especially in terms of getting rid of financial harvesting and financial blackmail, and strengthening financial sovereignty and financial security. "De-dollarization" may continue to advance in depth, but at the same time, it also faces considerable challenges. The complex economic and financial game will inevitably increase the international economic and financial risks, and the triggering of an economic and financial crisis cannot be ruled out.
Fifth, the two major effects of linkage and diffusion are highlighted. Although the voices for peace talks on the two conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and Palestine and Israel have further increased, hot wars, as the long-term cumulative results and extreme manifestations of various contradictions, are usually difficult to stop once they break out, and may only turn around when all parties are exhausted, and any negotiations, truces and ceasefires before this will be very difficult, fragile or short-lived. The prolongation of the war will inevitably bring about the expansion of the battlefield, and the expansion of the battlefield will inevitably bring about an increase in the "bargaining chips." In the future, Russia's rivalry with the West will continue to advance on the Eurasian continent and may spread extraterritorially. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict may also spread to a wider scale and be complicated by the internal affairs of some countries, which have fallen into sharp confrontation on the issue of "pro-Israel" or "anti-Israel."
Leading the evolution of the global trend for the better
The wheel of history is rolling forward, and the general trend of the times has never changed. For China and other countries in the "Global South", the assertion that "a century of accelerated change" is extremely profound. High winds and turbulent waves, or even stormy waves, are inevitable for the accelerated evolution of changes. There will always be new opportunities and new challenges in the world, sometimes there are more opportunities than challenges, sometimes there are more challenges than opportunities, sometimes opportunities will appear in the form of challenges, and challenges will be transformed into greater opportunities if they are dealt with well.
Today, China is embarking on a new journey of comprehensively promoting the great cause of national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization, and it is expected by all to promote the modernization process of the world with Chinese-style modernization. In the midst of the accelerated evolution of the century, China has rare strategic opportunities and strategic advantages, but also faces various risks and challenges. In such a situation, we must maintain our determination and self-confidence, firmly stand on the right side of history, adhere to the common values of all mankind, persist in thinking about the interests of the world, and strive to shape the global changes for the better.
Looking back on 2023, after the transition of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control, China pressed the fast-forward button in building a new development pattern and a new security pattern, and introduced a series of strategies and policies based on goal-oriented and problem-oriented, so as to lay a solid foundation for high-quality development and high-level security. A series of forward-looking actions to achieve "corner overtaking" and "lane change overtaking" in "new fields" and "new tracks" are also progressing in an orderly manner. Many people of international insight realize that despite the difficulties and challenges facing China in the post-epidemic era, it is in a stage of profound transformation, and the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed, and the future potential is huge.
As the largest developing country, China has always placed its own development in the coordinate system of human development, and created new opportunities for the world's development through its own development. In 2023, China successfully hosted the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation and put forward eight high-quality Belt and Road initiatives, which not only opened up more space for its own development, but also injected stronger momentum into the world economy. In 2023, China launched a number of measures to deepen opening-up, showing with concrete actions that China's door to opening up will be wider and wider, and that China is sincerely promoting the construction of an open world economy, and China's new development is destined to become a new opportunity for the world. China's Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative will also receive wider attention and deeper recognition in 2023. The international community has realized that these Chinese initiatives, as major ideological innovations in the process of world modernization, are extremely precious international public goods, and will inevitably play an important leading role in coping with future world changes.
The article only represents the author's own views and has nothing to do with this platform
Original article: Broke the circle of public accounts, December 27, 2023
Typesetting: Wang Heying
Reviewer: Ma Tao, Gong Jialing