Recently, Meng Weizhan, a lecturer at Fudan University's Institute for Advanced Study in Social Sciences, published an article discussing Republican Nikki Haley's performance in the polls and her competition in the New Hampshire primary. The article points out Haley's disadvantages within the Republican Party and discusses the possibility of Haley's cooperation with Biden. This article is reprinted with the author's permission, let's take a look with Xiao I~
Meng Weizhan
Lecturer, Institute for Advanced Study of Social Sciences, Fudan University
This article is about 3400 words, and it takes about 10 minutes to read
According to some polls, Republican Nikki Haley has seen an uptick in party support in some of the leading states. In New Hampshire, Haley is on the verge of momentum, with polls pointing her in second place. Based on past experience, if she can win the state primary, it will have a model effect on the subsequent primaries in other states, and it will have a shock to Trump's campaign momentum. Moreover, New Hampshire is one of the more conservative states in the Blue State, which is a bellwether for the Republican Party's national campaign.
Haley's approval ratings are still far behind Trump's, but the election has been widely watched. That's because, according to polling figures, whether Trump or Haley wins the Republican nomination, they are more than capable of beating Biden. In addition, Trump is currently mired in various lawsuits and has been disqualified from the presidential campaign in Colorado and Maine. If something happens to Trump in the next 10 months, Haley is likely to inherit the Republican throne and qualify to challenge Biden and be within easy reach of the presidency.
However, the reality may not be that simple. Haley's current difficulties still far outweigh her advantages. New Hampshire is a relatively affluent state, and Trump's voter base is mostly low-income, so even if Haley wins the state's primary, it will be difficult to upend Trump's voter base across the country. Ironically, the majority of voters in her hometown, South Carolina, where she was governor, have leaned toward Trump, and the vast majority of the state's top officials and U.S. House members support Trump, which is a real bellwether.
Haley's approval rating has soared
But the weaknesses are still very obvious
We only need to analyze it a little to know that the surge in Haley's public approval rating is only a short-lived illusion. It won't be long before her true weaknesses are revealed.
Let's look first at the ideological structure of Republican voters. The Republican Party's base now is that three-quarters of voters support the populists and a quarter support the establishment. Compared to the 2:2 structure of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party is clearly more polarized.
In this election of the Republican Party, the populist faction has three more influential candidates, namely Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Vivek Ramaswamy. The values of all three men are highly similar, and they are all insisting on continuing to run.
And in the Republican establishment, except for Haley, everyone else is basically out. Former Vice President Mike Pence announced his withdrawal from the election in October, acknowledging that "this is not our time." Glenn Youngkin, a political amateur once favored by Republican politicians, was also forced out of the tournament after losing the local elections in Virginia a month ago. Only former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has stuck to the campaign and has already participated in multiple party debates. Republican establishment bigwig Mitt Romney and others have advocated for others to make concessions in order to get Haley more support and ultimately win over Trump.
The strategy of Romney et al. did work. Because in the last 40 days, Haley's approval rating has indeed risen significantly. But she can't surpass the establishment's base in the Republican Party, which is 25-30 percent. Overall, she is still very vulnerable. This is not only because Trump's influence within the Republican Party is rock-solid, but also because there is room for Trump's approval rating to continue to increase in the first half of next year. Ramaswamy is highly homogeneous to Trump's values, and when he drops out, fans will all turn to support Trump. If DeSantis drops out, the vast majority of those who originally supported him will still support Trump, and only a small number will choose to support Haley.
Haley should choose to work with Biden
The Republican Party is now highly polarized, and Haley has no place in it. Even after Trump completely retires from politics in 2028, it will be difficult for Haley to become Trump's successor. Because the political line that Haley represents is one that is not popular with Republican voters. In this election, DeSantis and Ramaswamy's support in the Republican Party is lower than that of Haley, but this is mainly because they still have Trump in front of them. But by 2028, DeSantis and Ramaswamy will replace Trump as the standard-bearer of populism, and Haley will still control at most 25-30% of Republican voters, which is her upper limit.
If Haley wants to move herself to the next level politically, she should choose to work with Biden to form a bipartisan coalition government, which could potentially defeat Trump. A year ago, New York Times columnist Friedman made a bold suggestion that Biden could try to form a coalition government with Liz Cheney, the former No. 3 in the Republican House of Representatives, who is trying to fight Trump to the end. Or the Democrat's Somni teaming up with the Republican Romney could work.
Although Friedman's suggestion was ridiculed, the logic was not without reason. This is because the current ideological ratio of Democratic voters is 2:2, with the populists and the establishment evenly divided, while the ideological ratio of Republican voters is 3:1, with the populists far outnumbering the establishment. If the two parties cooperate, then the ratio of centrists to the far right will be 3:3 nationally, and the probability of Biden or He Jinli winning will be greatly increased. With Cheney's influence in the Republican Party shrinking considerably and Romney announcing his retirement from politics, Haley has become a leading figure in the Republican establishment, with whom Biden may be able to cooperate.
Perhaps this may sound fanciful, given Haley's very conservative political stance, but for Haley herself, it should be the best option for her to realize her political ambitions. Because for now, the establishment is no longer the mainstream faction within the Republican Party. Even in 2028, Haley is still unlikely to be more popular than DeSantis, Ramaswamy. If she now works with Biden to become the vice presidential candidate in the two-party coalition government, then there is a good chance that she will succeed to the presidency in 2028 and realize her ambitions.
Haley's political disadvantages have not yet been fully exposed
Haley represents the neoconservatives within the Republican Party, a faction that was once glorious under Reagan and George W. Bush but is now in an awkward political position. Trump represents national conservatives who believe they are the real conservats, while the neocons have long been in the same league as liberals and the left. Haley's dilemma now is that her political views are unflattering and she is often seized on for her words and practices.
Overall, Haley's political stance is very unpopular among Republican voters. Haley's advocacy for continued international obligations, especially on Ukraine, is hardly different from the views of the Democrats. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for nearly two years, which has caused a large economic burden on the American people, and inflation is the main reason why the people hate Biden. In this context, Haley also adheres to an internationalist stance that struggles to gain buy-in from voters on both parties, and she has been accused of a lack of loyalty to the national interests of the United States. While the recent support provided by Charles Koch's conservative political network in the United States and the "super PACs" at his disposal bodes well for Haley, in the populist era, politicians' rise to power depends not on money, but on popular will. Haley's approval ratings are very low among farmers, middle-class, blue-collar workers, and those without a college education, but these groups, which make up the vast majority of the U.S. population, are direct victims of inflation.
At a recent town hall event in New Hampshire, Haley refused to cite slavery as a cause of war in response to a question about "why the American Civil War broke out." Not only did Haley use very vague terms to describe the Civil War as a conflict between "tradition and change," but she also tried to justify herself afterwards, going so far as to repeat her claim as governor of South Carolina that the Civil War was "government interference in people's freedoms." Not only did she suffer a lot of slamming from Biden, but the establishment within the Republican Party was disappointed in her. After all, the neocons are also insisting on "political correctness" in the United States. Interestingly, even the more populist DeSantis mocked her video footage, which shows what a serious political mistake she made.
Another important fatal flaw of Haley is her excessive pragmatism, lack of her own position principles, and her tendency to drift with the crowd. This trait has led to a lot of ups and downs in her supporter base and no stable fan base. When she was governor of South Carolina, she vigorously brought in foreign investment, and then reversed her attitude, allowing her to do different things for her own political interests, which is very much in line with the usual style of neoconservatives. When she served in the Trump administration, she flattered in every way, and then betrayed Trump for her own political future, and now she sees Trump's position strengthened and does not forget to curry favor. This style of going to Qin and Twilight may have had a big market 20 years ago, but today it can only become a laughing stock. In a Republican stronghold like South Carolina, where Trump's power is deeply entrenched, it's hard to imagine how long Haley's original strategy will last her political career.
Finally, there was news in the past two days that Trump might be looking for Haley to be his running mate. However, this scenario is unlikely to come to fruition, and Trump's cronies are adamantly opposed. In 2016, Trump was still a political amateur, so he needed the support of the establishment like Pence, Haley, Mattisse and Bolton. But today, Trump has fully consolidated his grip on the Republican Party, and what he has to think about is grooming his successor. And, based on previous experience, Pence and Haley have betrayed themselves, so Trump will no longer beg for their help.
The article only represents the author's own views and has nothing to do with this platform
Original: NTU Strategic Studies December 29, 2023
Typesetting: Zhang Weina
Reviewer: Ma Tao, Gong Jialing