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Two pieces of news, set off huge waves, can you touch 2900 this time?

Two pieces of news, set off huge waves, can you touch 2900 this time?

Two pieces of news, set off huge waves, can you touch 2900 this time?

Author | Xie Xiaobai

Two pieces of news, set off huge waves, can you touch 2900 this time?

Now it seems that the judgment at that time was not correct, and it was certainly not wrong.

But I still have to admit that I was "naïve" and didn't expect the process to be so - extreme.

Monday's "unplugging the network cable" made me get beaten at both ends;

On Tuesday, another carp struck up, saying "I can still salvage it";

Today, as the news began to ferment, the market began to have "new" changes.

01

First of all, today's stock index futures have been rushing to the board for two consecutive days, long and short double killing, out of a very extreme market.

Two pieces of news, set off huge waves, can you touch 2900 this time?

The disk shows a trend of killing the bulls first and then killing the bears.

This kind of "wipe dry and eat it all" is really a long-lived experience, the means are ruthless, and the effect is remarkable, but how to say it?

At the same time, it was very domineering, and it shocked me deeply, "Is this not pretending?"

In fact, I think that the "little essay" of what "equalization fund" entered the market is nonsense, and the real reason is here:

News 1: A number of leading public offerings responded urgently to "suspend the scale of new refinancing bonds".

On February 6, a spokesperson for the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said that it proposed three measures for securities lending and borrowing business:

The first is to suspend the scale of new refinancing bonds;

Second, it is strictly forbidden to provide securities lending to investors who use securities lending to implement intraday rotation trading (disguised T+0 trading);

Third, we will continue to strengthen supervision and law enforcement.

This means: ready to start, more mindful of the "impact".

In other words, the loophole has not been eliminated at all, but has more "endorsement" and "reasonableness".

02

But compared to the previous "to make the short seller pay a heavy price", this is obviously: magnifying the move.

In particular, the "brokerage postponement liquidation" clause means that positions that have been borrowed and borrowed and are about to expire have to buy and repay the securities immediately.

Instantaneous offensive and defensive trends, bears "passively" become longs.

At this point, let's look at the second message:

In the official announcement last night, Central Huijin announced that it will continue to increase the scale and intensity of its holdings in ETFs, especially ETFs such as Zhongzheng 1000, Zhongzheng 500, Science and Technology Innovation Edition and Venture Capital Edition.

This directly indicates that GJD's buying strength has increased in these areas, and it has put on a posture of counterattacking 2900.

So, the question is: where did the funds come from, why did they choose this time to "rescue"? and what is their purpose?

03

The answer is very clear: this is all a "game" designed by them.

On the one hand, it is not pulled up before the festival, and no one will play after the New Year!

You don't see that ZJH has been busy and crazy in the past two days, and has worked for a year in two days.

Two pieces of news, set off huge waves, can you touch 2900 this time?

We should try our best to keep the "people angry" while trying not to "offend" interest groups, and to move around in a limited space.

It's really embarrassing for them.

On the other hand, for GJD, the profits that can be obtained by shorting are already very limited, so it is better to turn around and go long.

The reason is not complicated, buying is to sell, and now with ZJH, you can not only make a good impression, but also win twice (sell profit and short).

On the other hand, this will make the market look good and create some "illusions" for retail investors.

I believe that there will be many big Vs who said that with the "active attack" of policies and funds, the status quo of the three major passive selling pressures is gradually slowing down, the risk of snowball liquidation has been alleviated, and the pressure on the two financial and equity pledges is relatively small, and this series of measures makes the "look" confirmation of the bottom of the market more solid.

So guess what: will retail investors follow up and think that today's market is "reversing and picking up people"?

04

Today's market is actually still the old script - pulling the index, heavy maintenance, and the decline of more than 3000+ stocks, indicating that the market is still weak.

The root of this lies in the fact that "lack of money" and "fiscal gap" are the sword of Damorix in the market.

Therefore, we will see that this bailout is completely different from the previous "bailouts", with a wider dimension, a more three-dimensional level, and a variety of measures.

Specifically, what should we do about the housing market if we save the capital market? What about the exchange rate? What are the main contradictions and secondary contradictions in the middle?

Based on this, the term "bailout" now encompasses both direct bailout of the stock market and more policy support for the economy.

So we will see: the reduction of local government debt, the easing of the real estate support, and the more vigorous policy to get rid of deflation on the consumer side.

This naturally requires more time to balance, to make trade-offs, to tear down the east wall and make up the west wall....

To put it more bluntly: the so-called "bailouts" will revolve around: how do you get the money? And then where does the money go?

Based on this, kill the bulls first, and then pull out the network cable to kill the bears, is it an accident?

05

Not unexpected, not at all.

What should we do to prepare for this, and what behaviors should we prevent?

First I think it's cash flow, cash flow, or cash flow.

The reason is not complicated, this market is highly "controlled", and as the exposure to the "fiscal gap" increases, the market will become more and more extreme.

It will be very difficult to predict the market, and all we can do is plan for it.

Follow when it's time to follow and stay mobile. Specifically, how to go up and how to fall, on the basis of ensuring the safety of the principal, the day is over.

Once the trend is formed, we can keep up.

2. Never copy the bottom, never copy the bottom, never copy the bottom.

You can take a look, Anzheng fashion, 603839, a very typical major shareholder pledge was liquidated.

Two pieces of news, set off huge waves, can you touch 2900 this time?

In this process, no matter which position you go to the bottom, the result is: the same miserable.

Based on this, I think our strategy for the moment is very simple:

Hold on to long orders, do not fall back and step on the line, and do not sell.

It is not recommended to take a position again, unless the volume rises and breaks through the pressure level, you can consider adding positions.

In addition to this, short orders are not in a hurry to open positions.

In short, it is not recommended to increase positions if you can increase your position or not.

If the position can be reduced or not, it is recommended to reduce the position.

3. Make the most pessimistic expectations and do the most optimistic operations.

In fact, when the financial hole can be filled, if, I say if......

In 2025, if the real estate problem can be solved, the real estate industry will enter the stock era of steady development.

If technological progress such as photovoltaics, electric energy smart vehicles, and artificial intelligence does not stop, the industry will form an independent upgrade and iteration capability.

If the economy forms trillions of humanoid robots, intelligent robots, and intelligent unmanned aircraft in the next outlet......

Then we have a very promising future, and the only key is to increase household income and consumption to support growth at the same time.

epilogue

In the long run, our side is "rolling" very much, and everything is fast.

What others have achieved in decades, we can do it in a few years...... Jumping fast and overtaking in corners seems to be in our DNA.

But everyone has thought about a question that has not:

When the pig grows up, it's time to slaughter. When the company grows bigger, from the perspective of the boss, should it be sold?

Based on this, I suggest that you still maintain strategic concentration as much as possible, make plans, rather than make predictions, go long and long, go short and short, and keep up with the tide of the times.

Congratulations, I am Xie Xiaobai, who hopes that your wealth is free.

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div.autoTypeSetting24psection > p,div.autoTypeSetting24psection > section{margin-bottom: 24px;}

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